Jordan Love Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Lions vs. Packers | 8:15 p.m. ET
Through three games, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has mostly looked the part of a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. Helping Green Bay to a 2-1 record, Love has thrown for seven touchdowns with only one interception.
Digging into his passing attempts prop for Thursday Night Football against the Lions, which is set at a line of 32.5, Love has only pushed past this mark once, with 44 attempts last week against the Saints.
However, tonight’s matchup presents a sneaky opportunity for Love to air it out.
Sizing up the Lions defense, they’ve been solid against the run, holding opposing running backs to 50.7 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Against a banged-up Packers offensive line that could be without three starters, the Lions’ front seven should have a significant advantage.
Even with running back Aaron Jones reportedly returning from his hamstring injury, I don’t see Green Bay giving him a full workload off the bat. And backup AJ Dillon has been incredibly inefficient thus far (107 rush yards on 39 attempts).
This should make Love the focal point for the Packers. Love leads all starting quarterbacks in average depth of target (10.9), which has led to the signal-caller only completing 53% of his passes.
That should work in our favor, as the Lions have held opponents to a 63% completion mark (10th lowest), including 54% on throws 10 air yards or more down the field (per Pro Football Focus). More incompletions lead to more throws.
Each of the three quarterbacks to face the Lions this season have cleared this line, with pass plays being called in 64% of neutral game-script situations (sixth-highest mark, data per RotoViz).
I see Love continuing that trend and I have him projected for 35 pass attempts. I would play his pass attempts over to 33.5.
