Playing unders on longest reception props likely won’t win any popularity contests, but it’s a market I’ve successfully taken advantage of dating back to last season. With that, here are two unders I love for NFL Week 4.
Josh Downs Longest Reception Under 16.5 (-120)
Rams vs. Colts | 1 p.m. ET
Downs is an intriguing rookie receiver in the upstart Colts offense. However, the slot receiver’s average depth of target (aDOT) sits at 5.1 yards through three weeks.
In fact, of the 15 targets that have gone Downs’ way, only one traveled more than 12 air yards (and it fell incomplete). The diminutive pass-catcher was able to turn one of his short-yardage catches into a 22-yard gain back in Week 1, but outside of that, his long reception on the season is 12 yards.
With Anthony Richardson back in the fold, the Colts are likely to embrace their running game through RPO action with the rookie quarterback and running back Zack Moss.
The Rams typically play a two-deep zone look in an effort to prevent chunk-yardage pass plays. When the Colts do look down the field, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are the more likely downfield targets.
It’s a repeat play from last week, and one I’m expecting to cash once again. I’d play this line up to -135.
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Dalton Schultz Longest Reception Under 15.5 (-125)
Steelers vs. Texans | 1 p.m. ET
All the rage coming out of Houston is the revamped passing attack led by current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, C.J. Stroud.
While Stroud has already found success forging a connection with receivers Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Robert Woods, tight end Dalton Schultz has seen limited production thus far.
The former Cowboy has stayed under this line in each of his three games, with only one of his seven catches exceeding nine yards. His aDOT of 6.9 doesn’t bode well for long receptions, as the burly tight-end is not much of a threat for yards after the catch.
Plus, with Houston’s offensive line in shambles due to injury, Schultz typically is asked to chip block on the line before his routes.
Against the Steelers, it’s the Texans' receivers who should have more of an advantage than Schultz, who will draw tough matchups against the likes of Cole Holcomb, Keanu Neal and Minkah Fitzpatrick in coverage.
I’d play this line to -130.
