With today marking the last day in which we get to watch two NFL games until September, it’s only fitting that I found two spots with value on this Championship Sunday.
Eagles vs. 49ers Player Props
| Prop | Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Under 19.5 Yards (-122; Play to 18.5) |
| Matchup | Eagles vs. 49ers |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Goedert started the season clearing this line in each of his first five games. Since then, he’s under five of his last eight, with a shoulder injury mixed in between.
Despite ranking fifth amongst qualified tight-ends with 12.7 yards per reception, Goedert’s average depth of target of 6.0 yards ranks 31st out of 42 at his position. He’s tough to bring down after the catch, with his 7.7 yards after catch coming in at second amongst tight-ends.
But that’s why I’m on his under today. I trust the 49ers coverage to not allow the five-year veteran to run free. San Francisco has allowed the eighth-fewest tight-end receiving yards this season, at the third-fewest yards per reception.
Only three of the 49ers’ 19 opponents have had a tight end clear this line. I expect that trend to continue today.
Pick: Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Under 19.5 Yards |
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Chiefs vs. Bengals Player Props
| Prop | Logan Wilson Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-118; Play to -135) |
| Matchup | Chiefs vs. Bengals |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The talk around this game is all about Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. While he’s looked OK in video snippets, and the Chiefs aren’t listing him with an injury designation, I’m of the belief that he’ll be somewhat limited with his mobility.
I see the Chiefs protecting Mahomes by having him get rid of the ball quickly in the passing game. When he has thrown the ball within 2.5 seconds after the snap (representing 46% of his drop backs this season), his aDOT was only 3.6 yards (37th of 41 qualifying quarterbacks).
This is pertinent to Wilson, because I foresee a lot of action in the short/intermediate realm, which is where the linebacker produces the most.
And regardless, this is an achievable line for the third-year pro, having cleared this number in five of his last eight games. Plus, the Chiefs have allowed an inside linebacker to clear this total in five of their last six games.
I have Wilson projected at 10 tackles in tonight’s matchup.
Pick: Logan Wilson Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists |
