NFL Player Props: Expert Pick for Eagles vs Buccaneers

NFL Player Props: Expert Pick for Eagles vs Buccaneers article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Jones

NFL Player Props: Expert Picks for Steelers vs Bills, Eagles vs Buccaneers

We unexpectedly have a doubleheader to cap off NFL Wild Card Weekend, and I have NFL player props for Steelers vs. Bills and Eagles vs. Buccaneers.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Eagles Logo
Monday, Jan 15
8:15 p.m. ET
ABC/ESPN
Buccaneers Logo
Eagles Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-3
-105
43.5
-105o / -115u
-156
Buccaneers Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+3
-115
43.5
-105o / -115u
+132
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
FanDuel Logo
Header First Logo

Julio Jones

Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Header Trailing Logo

With A.J. Brown out, there's going to be more routes and targets to go around for the Eagles tonight against the Buccaneers.

Over the last couple of weeks, Julio Jones has been operating as the No. 3 wide receiver in this offense. Now, he'll likely be elevated to No. 2 behind DeVonta Smith.

Jones has seen a 21% target rate over the last four games and it could be higher tonight.

I realize Jones is in the twilight of his career, but we are getting a first-ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver's prop at 17.5. Let's not overthink this one.

I'm projecting Jones closer to 25.5 receiving yards tonight.

Pick: Julio Jones Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Steelers vs. Bills Player Props

Steelers Logo
Monday, Jan 15
4:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Bills Logo
Steelers Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+10
-112
38.5
-110o / -110u
+410
Bills Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-10
-108
38.5
-110o / -110u
-550
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
DraftKings Logo
Header First Logo

Dawson Knox

Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Header Trailing Logo

Even when Dawson Knox was operating as the Bills' lead tight end and Buffalo was employing a more pass-heavy offense (weeks 1-7), he only cleared this number in three games.

Since then, Knox missed five weeks with an injury and saw rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid take over his role while new offensive coordinator Joe Brady made the team more run-heavy as a whole.

Knox has cleared this number in three of his last five games, but during that time he caught seven of his eight targets (an 88% catch rate). Typically, we can expect Knox to have around a 70% catch rate, so he's due for some regression in that regard.

This game moving to Monday means the weather should be a bit better, but it'll still be cold and fairly windy, and Knox is still the clear No. 2 tight end option and fairly low on the target pecking order.

I'm projecting his median closer to 10.5 yards with a 60% chance he stays under 14.5.

Pick: Dawson Knox Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-130 at DraftKings)

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About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

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