NFL Player Props for Buccaneers vs. Lions
Lavonte David (TB) over 8.5 tackles + assists +110
David was a monster in the regular season for the upstart Bucs and finished with 134 combined tackles in just 15 games. Not only was it his highest individual total since 2014, but he finished ninth in combined tackles per game amongst qualifiers, league-wide.
The 12-year veteran finished the regular season clearing this line in eight of his final 12 full games. And way back in Week 6, he registered 12 combined tackles against the Lions.
Coming off a muted five-tackle performance against the Eagles in the Wild Card round, I see today’s matchup as a prime bounce-back spot for David.
For starters, the Lions run a lot of plays: 66.2 per game, the third most in the league, in the regular season. More plays leads to more tackles for opponents – so Detroit unsurprisingly allowed the third most combined tackles to their opponents.
Against the Lions stout run defense, I don’t expect the Bucs to be able to control the clock and sustain long drives today. That should lead to David and Tampa’s defense being on the field plenty. I have the longest-tenured Buccaneer projected at 10 tackles today.
Pick: Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists +110 (playable to -110)
Rachaad White (TB) under 81.5 rushing + receiving yards -115
White comes into this matchup staying under this line in only eight of 18 games. However, this should serve as a tough spot for the Bucs back.
The Lions allowed the fewest scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs over the course of the regular season (91.4). Thirteen of their 18 total opponents’ running backs (including the Rams last week) were unable to clear this line.
On the ground, the Lions defense ranks first in rush defense DVOA, and third in adjusted line yards (both per FTN Fantasy). And through the air, it’s a better spot for Mike Evans and Cade Otton, with the latter serving as the security blanket for quarterback Baker Mayfield in last week’s win.
I have White projected at 72 scrimmage yards today, and I’d play this line down to under 78.5.
Pick: Under 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (playable down to under 78.5)
