NFL Player Props: Best Bets for Divisional Round (Sunday)
We have nine NFL player props for Sunday's Divisional Round NFL doubleheader. Check out our player prop best bets in the table below. You can navigate this post by clicking on a pick.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Tony Sartori
Cade Otton exploded last week with eight catches on 11 targets for 89 yards. He led the team in all three of those categories as Baker Mayfield kept feeding him against an Eagles pass defense that looked lost.
We could see a similar performance on Sunday against the Lions, a team that ranked 20th in yards allowed per game and 27th in passing yards allowed per game. Their underlying metrics were even worse, ranking 30th in expected points contributed by passing defense per game.
If Otton is going to get the same amount of attention from Mayfield, then his touchdown prop is very live against this poor pass defense, especially at such a long number of +370. That line is available via FanDuel, a price that is 20-110 cents longer than the rest of the market.
Otton is second on the Bucs in receiving touchdowns this season, and we could see him add to that total on Sunday. I would play this number down to +350.
Pick: Cade Otton Anytime Touchdown (+370)
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
It's hard not to like Amon-Ra St. Brown to have another big game.
St. Brown has tallied at least 92 yards in 11-of-17 games this season, hitting this over 65% of the time. That includes a monster line against the Bucs in Week 6 — 12 catches for 124 yards and a score on 15 targets.
These pass defenses allowed the third- and fourth-most yards to receivers this season, and the Bucs have allowed 10 WRs already to hit 100 yards, plus three more at 90+ that would hit this prop.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Sean Koerner
Reynolds has been heating up recently. His playing time has gone way up, and he’s run a route on 94% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks in the Lions' last two games.
That has been due to either Jameson Williams or Kalif Raymond being out, and Raymond is out today. That means Reynolds should be on the field for almost every passing play against the Buccaneers. He also has seen seven targets in back-to-back games.
The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-highest yards-per-attempt average to WRs this season, and they blitz at a top-three rate. I expect Tampa Bay to dial it up often against Goff. When Goff is facing a blitz, Reynolds' target rate goes up 2%.
Finally, the Buccaneers use Cover 3 at a top-four rate in the NFL. Reynolds' yards-per-catch average goes up 10 yards against Cover 3.
I’m projecting Reynolds' median closer to 47.5 yards with a 61% chance that he clears 39.5.
Pick: Josh Reynolds Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Ricky Henne
The Lions’ passing attack has been Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and a rotating third weapon emerging from week to week.
However, it appears Josh Reynolds might have firmed up that spot alongside St. Brown and LaPorta. Jared Goff’s shown significant trust in him since the calendar flipped to January. Reynold’s had seven targets in each of Detroit’s last two games, his most since Week 1.
Reynolds ranked second in targets to St. Brown’s nine in last week’s Wild Card win over the Rams, and had significantly more than LaPorta (three) and Jameson Williams (two). He hauled in five passes for 80 yards and was a big-play weapon with catches of 33 and 24 yards.
Meanwhile, the Lions will be without Kalif Raymond for a second straight game, opening up even more opportunities for Reynolds as the offense’s second wide receiver. That’s significant since Tampa Bay’s struggled holding WR2s in check, allowing 44.4 yards per game, 11th most in the league.
Oddsmakers expect this to be a high-scoring game by Tampa Bay’s standards. In fact, the set total of 49.5 is the highest of any Buccaneers game this season by a significant amount — the previous high was 44.5. A major reason the line’s so high is each team has an advantage through the air.
Add it all up and the signs point toward Reynolds having plenty of opportunities to churn out the yards. I might even ride the escalator on it.
Pick: Josh Reynolds Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
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Chiefs vs. Bills
If the Bills win, you better believe Allen will be the reason. He always shows up for these battles against Patrick Mahomes, and he unleashes his running in the biggest moments, too — look no further than that spectacular TD run against the Steelers.
Allen has become Buffalo's goal-line back. The Bills have their own Tush Push sneak now, and Allen has repeatedly plowed over defenders to find the end zone.
He's run for a score in 13 of Buffalo's 18 games (72%), and nine of those scores came over the final seven games, including one against the Chiefs last time and the one against the Steelers on Monday.
The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments, and it doesn't get any bigger than this. Allen scored twice on the ground in three of the last six games, so there's also value on 2+ TDs at +600.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-105)
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Chiefs vs. Bills
Gabe Davis (knee) has been ruled out and Stefon Diggs is dealing with a foot issue — though he carries no injury designation. Diggs was shown barely blocking in the Monday win on a couple different plays, and he didn't practice on Thursday before he was "limited at best" in Friday's practice.
Diggs and Davis are the top two wideouts in this offense and the Bills could be extremely limited in explosiveness department.
Buffalo's offense had a 41% success rate in that Wild Card Round game and Allen finished with a negative EPA per play — and that was with a healthy Diggs. James Cook was their leading receiver and I think there's real questions about how good the Bills pass offense will be against a well above-average Kansas City secondary.
With Allen relying on his legs and the running game through Cook, his passing yards total is inflated. I'm betting under pass yards at 225 or more.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Chiefs vs. Bills
Allen didn't rush the ball at the same high rate this season, but that changed a bit in the second half of the season. And with this being the playoffs, I expect Allen to do a lot more on the ground on Sunday night.
Allen has hit the over at this number in each of the last three games. When you look back into Allens history in the playoffs, he's hit the over at this number in 6-of-9 games.
The weather isn't going to be great for passing due to wind and the temperature around zero, so Allen has even more incentive to rush the ball. I would hit this line all the way up to 48.5.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Chiefs vs. Bills
I took a long shot last week with TE Noah Gray at +800. While he didn’t come through, I still am in the camp of taking a Chiefs player with longer odds, like Justin Watson at +550 or Marques Valdes-Scantling at +850.
We know Patrick Mahomes will find a way to buy time in the pocket with his legs, which means downfield threats like Watson and MVS can hopefully get open.
The Bills ranked 23rd in DVOA against deep passes and 25th in DVOA against opposing WR2s, so I’d opt for Watson. He’s playing the second-most snaps of any Chiefs receiver and he has had flashes of success against both man and zone defense. Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been effective against any defense this year.
Watson was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs offense in the second half of the season, catching all three of his touchdowns after the team's Week 10 bye.
Pick: Justin Watson Anytime Touchdown (+550)
Chiefs vs. Bills
Outside of a few drops, Cade Otton stole the show last week, finishing with eight receptions for 89 yards. It would've been an even better line if he didn't drop a touchdown.
With the strength of the Lions defense being against the run, look for Baker Mayfield to air it out early and often. I think the Bucs play from behind here and Otton clears this line.
Kincaid has at least 50 receiving yards in three straight games, including two games with at least 80 receiving yards. With cold weather and winds expected, Josh Allen will lean on the short-to-intermediate passing game, which is Kincaid territory.
