NFL Player Props | Week 11
Our staff has identified its favorite NFL player props for Week 11, ranging from Anytime Touchdown Scorers to over/unders.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Josh Jacobs
Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Raiders are loving life under Antonio Pierce, smoking stogies in the locker room, riding high at 2-0 with their interim coach. They've quickly adopted Pierce's toughness, playing good defense and committing to the run. Jacobs had 26 carries for 98 yards in Pierce's debut, then 27 for 116 last week. He wasn't really any more efficient, but it's his two highest-carry loads of the season and it's about toughness and identity.
The Raiders line has improved and outperformed expectations, and Miami's run defense ranks bottom-7 by DVOA and is the team's weak spot. Six opposing running backs have had 15 carries against the Dolphins, and five of them went over this line. Expect the Raiders to protect their rookie QB by running the ball, chewing up the clock, and trying to keep Tua Tagovailoa's offense off the field.
The commitment to the run game under Pierce has been very clear, and I expect Jacobs to get his carries in almost any script. The line for this game reaching nearly two TDs in Miami's favor feels wild to me, and I wouldn't be shocked if a tough Raiders team hung around with Jacobs chewing up yards and the clock. No escalator here, but I'm betting the Jacobs rushing yards over on a line that should be in the high 70s at least. I continue to recommend Jacobs' rushing title odds, too.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Titans vs. Jaguars
Calvin Ridley
Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Calvin Ridley has only cleared this number three times in 2023, once in Week 1 and twice after performances of fewer than 40 receiving yards. This is a bounce-back spot for the Jacksonville offense, and I expect that unit to make a concerted effort to get Ridley the ball in one of the better matchups that Ridley will see all season.
The Titans are 27th in pass defense DVOA and, more specifically, 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1s. Tennessee allows 8.7 yards per target to receivers, and it gives up a completion at a rate of 70.5%, both of which rank them in the bottom 10 in the NFL. The two starting cornerbacks for the Titans rank 58th and 77th in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and Ridley should see his fair share of work against both of them on the outside of the formation.
So far this season, Chris Olave, Keenan Allen, Josh Downs, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson and Mike Evans have cleared 90 yards receiving against this defense. In addition to those names, another eight receivers have cleared 50 yards. This is a perfect buy-low opportunity on Ridley's prop number.
I'd play this up to 51.5.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Titans vs. Jaguars
Tyjae Spears
Over 2.5 Receptions (-136)
Spears has been very busy with Will Levis at QB, finishing the last two games with four receptions, seeing five and six targets in those games.
The Jaguars are tough to run on, but they give up the most receptions to opposing running backs. I love this spot for Spears.
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Cardinals vs. Texans
Trey McBride
Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
McBride is turning into Travis Kelce right before our eyes, and I'm going along for the ride. He has been probably the best TE in the league in the last three weeks and if you were worried about how Kyler Murray would do with him, we got our answer last week.
McBride's volume has been solid, with nine targets per game over the last three weeks. One of those was with Clayton Tune at the helm against the toughest defense in the league, against which McBride had five targets for a 25% target share. Add in that this game against Houston is going to be a shootout, with one of the largest totals this week, and the targets will be there.
I would hit this line all the way to 59.5 receiving yards.
Cardinals vs. Texans
Trey McBride & Cole Kmet
Trey McBride Over 4.5 Receptions & Cole Kmet Over 3.5 Receptions (+164)
I have stock in Kmet and McBride touchdowns, but not receptions yet. Kmet has five or more receptions in his last three games (he had five, six and 10 receptions in those games) and five of his last six games overall.
McBride, meanwhile, has 21 receptions over his last three games, including eight last week in Kyler Murray’s first game back.
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Rico Dowdle
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)
By Sam Farley
This feels a bit speculative, but I love the value on Rico Dowdle finding the end zone for the Cowboys.
Dowdle had a big week last week, rushing 12 times for 79 yards and a TD. Now, I know you're screaming at your screens reminding me that it was against the Giants in a blowout win, and you're right. However, he did look very good as he averaged 6.6 yards per carry and given that Tony Pollard hasn't looked as dynamic as expected being the team's lead back, it makes sense that the Cowboys might want to hand Dowdle the rock a bit more after that performance.
That's good news against a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to RBs (145) and has allowed an average of 1.67 touchdowns to RBs in every game this season. Let's grab that number at 3-1 or higher because it screams value if Dowdle's role gets expanded — and if he's active.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Mike Evans
Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bucs can't run the ball to save their lives, but Tampa Bay's pass protection has been strong and should give Baker Mayfield time to test San Francisco's one real defensive weak spot, its corners. The 49ers are beatable on the outside, so Chris Godwin and especially Mike Evans can win and help Tampa move the ball.
Usually, I play Mike Evans for a touchdown, and he's scored in six of nine games this season, but it's tough to bet on a touchdown against a tough defense. The yardage total sticks out as the better play as Evans has at least 39 yards every game this season, which gives him a safe floor that puts him within one catch of the over. Also, he's gone over 55.5 yards in six of nine games (67%).
I wasn't coming into this game looking to bet on Evans' receiving yards, but this line is just too low. The 49ers have already allowed 11 games of at least 56 yards to wideouts this season and there's little reason to believe Evans won't add to the list, especially since this play should be matchup-proof, with a big San Francisco lead only pushing Tampa Bay to pass more.
Pick: Mike Evans Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jets vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
By Sam Farley
Since Dawson Knox landed on the injured reserve, we've seen rookie Dalton Kincaid break out. In those four games he's had 28 receptions on 32 targets for 272 yards and two touchdowns. That's an incredible return and it shows how important he's becoming to the team.
Now he faces an incredible matchup against the Jets, a defense that has allowed six touchdowns to TEs in just nine games. So, you have a guy getting serious volume, against a defense with a weakness to tight ends and he's priced at +200.
