Week 18 of the NFL season is the most fun week to project, although if it's fun to bet is to be determined.
On the Fantasy Flex podcast, NFL analysts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon gave out their favorite players to watch for each game on the 16-game slate. These are players worth targeting not just in DFS, but also in the Anytime Touchdown market.
Given the uncertainty around playing time for a number of teams this week, odds weren't listed for many players at the time of the podcast's recording. That said, it's important to check out our NFL Prop Projections page before making your bets. Our NFL prop projections are powered by Koerner, the most accurate fantasy football ranker in the industry in 2023 (and 2015-2017, for that matter). There, you can see the best odds for each player as well as the edge based on our projections against the market.
That said, here are Koerner's and Raybon's favorite picks for Sunday's NFL Week 18 games.
NFL Player Props: Week 18 Touchdown Picks
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Bills vs. Patriots
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 36.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 36.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
Kayshon Boutte
Chris Raybon: Kayshon Boutte is a pretty good bet to get playing time even if some of the other guys on the Patriots don't play as much.
He's also improved quite a bit since the year has gone on. He gets a lot of air yards and is out there almost 100% of the time in terms of route rate.
Ray Davis
Chris Raybon: James Cook is probably resting this week, or at the very least they'll probably take it easy with him.
Likewise, Ty Johnson has become an important part of this offense as the passing downs back, so it'll probably be a light day for him, too.
Ray Davis is your best bet to get a lot of snaps and carries in this game.
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Texans vs. Titans
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 36.5 -112o / -108u | +105 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 36.5 -112o / -108u | -125 |
Dameon Pierce
Sean Koerner:Dameon Pierce could provide sneaky value this week, especially if Joe Mixon gets the start, because I would imagine Mixon wouldn't play that many snaps and then Pierce would take over as the lead back with Dare Ogunbowale mixing in on passing downs.
The Texans may even treat Ogunbowale like a starter with Pierce as the clear backup.
If Mixon is ruled out, a potential pivot would be Cade Stover given the possibility that they limit Dalton Schultz or he sits entirely.
Tony Pollard
Sean Koerner:Tony Pollard sat out last week with an ankle injury and also picked up an illness. Tyjae Spears is in concussion protocol, so I imagine he's out this week.
This is an incentives watch for Pollard. He's 83 rushing yards away from a $250,000 bonus, and two touchdowns from another $250K.
The Texans are likely to rest starters, so this will be a chalky bet, but there may also be sneaky value on Pollard to score 2+ touchdowns.
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Jaguars vs. Colts
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | +154 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | -185 |
Kylon Granson
Chris Raybon: Kylon Granson hasn't gotten in the end zone this year, but he's facing a Jaguars team that ranks dead-last in DVOA against tight ends.
Joe Flacco under center gives Granson a better chance. He caught three balls for 34 yards last week, and there will be more completions and yards to go around generally.
Granson had more routes than even someone like Adonai Mitchell, and last week the Colts healthy scratched a fellow tight end in Will Mallory.
Parker Washington
Chris Raybon:Parker Washington has the second-most yardage on the Jaguars against cover-3 defenses, and the Colts play that at a higher rate than the league average.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -290 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +235 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Sean Koerner: Chris Rodriguez Jr. is sneaky whenever I think he could see more work.
That could be the case this week with the Commanders locked into either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. They may rest starters or pull them early.
Jeremy McNichols would likely split work with Rodriguez, but I would expect Rodriguez to get goal-line work, which he did last week with a two-yard TD run.
KaVontae Turpin
Sean Koerner: KaVontae Turpin is always sneaky even with limited playing time because anytime he touches the ball he's a threat to score.
Turpin had a season-high 59% routes run rate last week, so it looks like the Cowboys are trying to get him more looks on offense, maybe see if he can be something like the next Rashid Shaheed, although he's a different type of player.
With this amount of playing time, Turpin becomes an even better bet, because he's likely to get 2-3 rushing attempts per game and return kicks, in addition to his expanded role in the passing game.
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Saints vs. Buccaneers
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -112 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | +625 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -108 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -950 |
Sean Tucker
Chris Raybon: There will be a lot of focus this week on Bucky Irving and Mike Evans as they are going for incentives.
However, in games the Bucs have played with huge spreads that have turned into blowouts, we've seen more of Sean Tucker.
With the Bucs favored by 2+ touchdowns, there's a chance we see him for most if not all of the second half, depending on how competitive the Saints are.
Marques Valdez-Scantling
Chris Raybon: Marques Valdez-Scantling is coming off of a goose egg, but he ran a route last week on 83% of drop backs, so he's still dangerous.
He could have one catch and it go for a 50-70-yard touchdown.
It's also worth noting that Valdez-Scantling hits a $250,000 incentive with one touchdown in Week 18.
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Panthers vs. Falcons
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | +300 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | -380 |
Jalen Coker
Sean Koerner: We finally saw all of the Panthers wide receivers healthy last week and, as expected, the odd man out was David Moore in terms of playing time.
Jalen Coker, on the other hand, still saw a 90% routes run rate.
The Panthers probably want the seventh-round rookie to get as many reps as possible as he's been a big surprise this season.
With no Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers won't be as run-heavy. They only had 13 rushing attempts in last week's blowout.
I suspect they'll let Bryce Young air it out here.
Kyle Pitts
Sean Koerner: The Falcons are a top-heavy team and this week I expect them to lean on Bijan Robinson even more. Tyler Allgeier may not see as much work as usual.
Kyle Pitts is coming off a good game with four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. It's possible the change in quarterback to Michael Penix Jr. helps his production.
In any case, while Pitts has been a disappointed he's still obviously talented and just 24-years-old. We have one final week to get tricked into being high on Pitts again.
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Bears vs. Packers
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | +350 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | -455 |
Rome Odunze
Chris Raybon: We saw Rome Odunze have a touchdown overturned against Seattle and it feels like he's close to getting in the end zone again.
The Packers might not go full-tilt the entire game, giving him a good chance.
Emanuel Wilson
Chris Raybon: The Packers have been mixing it up in the backfield more and more, and they'll want to ensure Josh Jacobs stays healthy regardless.
Emanuel Wilson played 32% of the snaps last week and has scored a touchdown in two straight games.
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Giants vs. Eagles
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 36.5 -118o / -102u | +105 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 36.5 -118o / -102u | -125 |
Darius Slayton
Sean Koerner: I keep waiting for Jalin Hyatt to see more playing time at Darius Slayton's expense, but that was not the case again last week as Slayton had an 80% routes run rate.
Maybe that finally changes this week, but I liked what I saw from him last week.
He's clearly giving 110% right now, and while maybe that was a one-week thing, it's good to see when a player isn't trying to lose games so his team gets a high draft pick.
Johnny Wilson
Sean Koerner: The Eagles are likely to rest most of their starters, and while there's some uncertainty as to how the backfield snaps will shake out, the wide receiver depth is fairly even.
While we're still not sure if it will be Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee under center, I think Johnny Wilson is a sneaky pick, specifically for a touchdown.
Wilson is 6-foot-6, 228 pounds, so he's a good end-zone target. And we're also less likely to get a tush push this week to potentially rob a touchdown pass.
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Chargers vs. Raiders
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
