NFL Week 10 has arrived, and I have some NFL player props to target for the 10th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 10. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 10 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 10
- RB Javonte Williams Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-108, FanDuel)
- S Xavier Woods Under 6.5 Tackles (-105, ESPNBet)
- LB Demario Davis Under 8.5 Tackles (-120, BetMGM)
- WR Adonai Mitchell Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- S Minkah Fitzpatrick Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (+110, BetMGM)
- S Amani Hooker Under 5.5 Tackles (+120, DraftKings)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props: Javonte Williams Rush Attempts
Williams has gone over this number in six of nine games, but this spot sets up well for the under. The Broncos have averaged 23 rushing attempts per game in their four losses, compared to 30.8 in their five wins. As 7.5-point underdogs on the road at Arrowhead, we should expect a more pass-heavy game script, which means fewer rushing attempts.
Kansas City, with its recent dominance in time of possession (34:08 over its past three games, ranking second), has leaned heavily on Kareem Hunt and the run game, which should limit the number of plays Denver runs.
While Williams handles most passing downs, he splits some early down carries with Jaleel McLaughlin and could see his attempts cut further if rookie Audric Estime, who’s been getting some positive chatter from the coaching staff, starts seeing more work — likely on early downs or in short-yardage situations.
I’m projecting the fair odds for Under 10.5 at closer to -160. Some books have already moved it down to 9.5 (+110 at DraftKings), which still shows slight value, as I have that line at closer to -110. Either way, I see a much lower floor for Williams in this spot, making it a good time to take the under.
Giants vs. Panthers Player Props: Xavier Woods Tackles
Xavier Woods has cleared this number in four of his past six games, but that stretch was boosted by matchups against teams that tend to allow more tackle opportunities to safeties.
From Weeks 4-8, his numbers benefited from an ideal schedule that likely inflated his tackle average by about +0.6 per game. This week, Woods faces the Giants, a team that allows the 11th-fewest tackles to opposing safeties.
Receivers Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson are target hogs, who provide opposing corners with a ton of tackle opportunities. However, they don’t provide the same kind of consistent tackle opportunities for safeties. Another key factor: Woods has been playing more deep safety since Nick Scott’s injury in Week 7. If Jordan Fuller (questionable) returns, Woods could be pushed into deeper alignments, further lowering his expected tackle rate.
Game script adds another layer here. The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs, but they’ve trailed for 66% of their snaps this season. I’m projecting them to trail for only about 51% of the snaps in this game based on the 6.5-point spread. Woods’ tackle rate drops by 3% when the Panthers aren’t trailing, which could happen more often in this matchup.
With Chuba Hubbard recently extended and Jonathon Brooks (questionable) — arguably the top rookie running back of this year’s class — making his debut, the Panthers are likely to lean on their run-heavy identity.
That approach should help control the clock, limit the Giants' play volume and ultimately reduce Woods’ tackle opportunities. I’m projecting him closer to 5.9 tackles and a fair price closer to -165 for him to stay under 6.5.
Falcons vs. Saints Player Props: Demario Davis Tackles
Davis has only cleared this number in two of eight games this season and the Falcons have allowed the fewest tackles to opposing linebackers, making this a tough matchup for Davis to rack up tackles.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier run outside at the third-highest rate in the league, which tends to get corners more involved when it comes to tackling. Davis’ tackle rate is 5% lower against outside runs, which means he falls into this trend.
I expect the Falcons to attack the corners even more this week as the Saints will be very thin there (Marshon Lattimore (traded), Kool-Aid McKinstry (out) and Rico Payton (questionable)).
This is a tough matchup for linebackers and a number Davis has only cleared 25% of the time. I love this prop and am projecting him closer to 7.4 tackles with around a 68% chance he stays under 8.5.
Bills vs. Colts Player Props: Adonai Mitchell Receiving Yards
I think this is THE perfect time to invest in the rookie’s breakout.
Michael Pittman Jr. (back/finger) has been ruled out, which should lead to more snaps for Mitchell. He’s seen a target on a ridiculous 32% of his routes run this season, but there is no way he'll be able to maintain that in closer to a full time role.
However, he’s been close to having massive catches and games all season and I think we could see it all come together for him here.
Mitchell has only caught 12 of his 32 (37.5%) targets, but NextGenStats has him at an expected catch rate closer to 55%. He’s due to haul in more targets going forward, especially one downfield, where he has just missed big gains, but due to inaccurate throws by Anthony Richardson, was unable to haul them in.
With Joe Flacco under center, it’s only going to make it more likely for Mitchell to potentially haul in one or two deep shots with a big increase in playing time.
Mitchell is a rookie I was high on entering the season and my comp for him was Tee Higgins. We could see a true breakout game from Mitchell and I want to invest in his upside by also attacking his alt props.
I’m projecting his median closer to 38.5 with a fair price closer to -180 to clear 26.5 yards. I’m also adding 0.5 units on 40+ receiving yards at +190 on FanDuel and I project a fair price at closer to +130. I’m also adding 0.2 units on 50+ receiving yds at +310 on FanDuel. I project that fair price at closer to +200.
There’s also value on his longest reception over 14.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel) and to catch a 20+ yard pass at +185, which I project at closer to +120.
Steelers vs. Commanders Player Props: Minkah Fitzpatrick Tackles + Assists
Fitzpatrick has cleared this in four of eight games, despite playing a slightly tougher schedule in terms of tackle opportunities for a safety.
This is a great matchup for him as the Commanders have provided the fourth-most tackle opportunities for safeties this season.
Fitzpatrick will also likely get in on some Jayden Daniels scrambles as he tends to line up on the right side at a higher rate (53% of snaps), while Daniels has scrambled to the right 70% of the time. Ideally, we'll get Fitzpatrick to line up on the right side at an even higher rate this game.
If we see him lining up on the right side at a higher rate early in the game, it would be a good signal to hit his over again in-game. He’s also going to mix in on check downs to Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz targets over the middle and even deep shots to Terry McLaurin.
I expect Fitzpatrick to be around a lot more tackle opportunities than usual given the matchup and I’m projecting him closer to 6.3 tackles+assists, with around a 60% chance to clear 5.5.
Titans vs. Chargers Player Props: Amani Hooker Tackles
Hooker has cleared this in just three of eight games, despite facing a very good schedule for a safety as I'd project him to average +0.4 tackles per game based on his schedule.
This will be his toughest matchup to date to rack up tackles as the Chargers have provided the third-fewest tackles to safeties. The only other team that Hooker has faced that is bottom 10 in tackles allowed to safeties was the Jets, a game in which he only managed just three tackles + assists.
I’m projecting Hooker closer to 4.9 tackles with around a 62% chance he stays under 5.5. Getting +120 here is a nice bonus.
