NFL Player Props: Sunday Best Bets Week 15
Our bettors have identified their favorite NFL player props for Week 15. Two are on a rookie sensation, and two are on Cowboys playmakers in Week 15's marquee matchup. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Falcons vs. Panthers
Bijan Robinson
ATD (+155)
By Sam Farley
I know that Arthur Smith likes to ruin good things, but I can't believe that Bijan Robinson is available at plus money, much less +155, to score against the Panthers.
Robinson has scored four TDs in his past four games, and his quality is clear to see for everyone. Secondly, and most importantly, this is against a Panthers' defense that has allowed 21 touchdowns to RBs in 13 games, the worst record in the NFL.
Pick: Bijan Robinson ATD (+155)
Falcons vs. Panthers
Bijan Robinson
Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Robinson had a little bit of an off-week last week but prior to that, his volume had been really solid with 18, 16, and 22 rushing attempts in the previous three games.
This game is a perfect spot for Robinson with the Falcons being three-point favorites and the Panthers being a pretty big run-funnel defense. The Panthers are middle of the pack in pass D this season, but they're dead last in Rush DVOA.
Robinson is averaging a great 4.7 yards per rush on the season, and the Falcons have shown over and over again they'd rather run the ball if they have the choice. Given the plus matchup and the expected volume for Robinson this line is too low. I would hit this up to 65.5.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jets vs. Dolphins
Garrett Wilson
Over 4.5 Receptions (-160)
By Sam Farley
I can't help but feel that Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 receptions is a slam dunk.
Nobody likes to back anything to do with the Jets right now, but the Dolphins have a middle of the road pass defense and crucially Garrett Wilson sees volume. The Jets quarterback play is terrible but Wilson has seen double-digit targets in six of his past eight games, and even in those that didn't hit double digits he was thrown to seven and eight times.
Where there is volume, there is opportunity.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-160)
Cowboys vs. Bills
Brandin Cooks
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Cowboys made a handful of key free agent signings this offseason that had me excited about Dallas coming into the season. One of those key additions was CB Stephon Gilmore, who was a huge difference maker in last week's win over Philadelphia. Brandin Cooks was another supposedly big addition, but an early injury has limited his season impact.
Cooks exploded with 9/173/1 against the Giants a month ago and is finally looking healthy. He's averaging 4.4 catches for 73.8 yards over the past five games with increasing snap counts that have him on the field most of the game. He's had at least 37 yards in all five, so this line is pricing him at his floor. Buffalo ranks last against WR2s by DVOA and near the bottom defending deep passes.
The Bills are sure to give heavy coverage to CeeDee Lamb, and Cooks will get his chances. Could this be the game where the signing pays off? You can play a same-game parlay of 70 yards and a score at +750 (DraftKings), something he's done twice in the past five games, and hope for a long score.
Pick: Brandin Cooks Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Cowboys vs. Bills
Rico Dowdle
Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Matt Trebby
Dowdle is projected for 25 rushing yards by Sean Koerner in what should be a run-heavy game plan for the Cowboys.
Dowdle has gone over this total in three of the Cowboys’ last five games, a span during which his role has increased in the Cowboys offense. He is averaging eight carries per game in those games.
Dowdle is eating into Tony Pollard’s workload a little bit here, and their production has been similar. Dowdle is averaging 4.09 yards per carry this season, while Pollard is at 4.06. In those last five Cowboys game, Dowdle is at 4.35 yards per carry and Pollard at 4.24.
The forecast for this game isn’t ideal for two high-powered offenses that are led by their aerial attacks. There’s about a 50% chance of rain with 15-mph winds. Obviously, conditions like that would lead teams to keep the ball on the ground, especially on the road as Dallas will be.
The Bills defense is 16th in DVOA against the pass but 18th against the run, so there’s no clear weakness to exploit. All we should need here is four carries for Dowdle, which he’s done four times in the Cowboys’ last five games.
