We have you covered with NFL player props for the Week 17 Sunday slate of games.
Our experts have picks for 5 games, including 2 for Jets vs. Bills, and 3 for Panthers vs. Buccaneers. We have a passing prop, a rushing prop, 2 receiving props and 4 anytime touchdown scorers for today.
NFL Player Prop Picks
Let's dig into our NFL props for this week's Sunday slate,
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Packers vs. Vikings
Jordan Love Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-110)
This game has all the makings of a shootout, and Jordan Love should be in for a big game.
Love draws a matchup against a tough Vikings pass defense, but Minnesota is even better against the run and has forced the highest percentage of pass plays on the season (64.71%). Josh Jacobs has been great this season and has been seeing tons of volume, but the Packers will likely have to rely heavily on Love throwing the ball in this spot.
With his receiving corps fairly healthy and this game being played in a dome, Love should thrive.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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Colts vs. Giants
Jonathan Taylor Under 1.5 Receptions (-150)
Anthony Richardson is out, which is notable for Jonathan Taylor's receiving production. He has three catches on five targets for 14 yards over the past five games, which aligns with Richardson returning to the starting lineup. Taylor's 3% target share in this stretch is eighth on the team. He ranks behind three different Indianapolis tight ends.
The Colts are dead last in neutral pass rate since Richardson regained the starting job. They're touchdown favorites against a Giants team that has lost 10 straight games. New York has a -81 point differential since their Week 11 bye. It's hard to imagine them staying competitive here.
We're not dead with Joe Flacco, though. The Colts will likely still lean heavily on the ground game in a game that they're heavily favored in against an awful Giants team.
More importantly, the Giants have been gashed on the ground. They're allowing the 2nd-most rushing yards per game. We just saw Indianapolis lean on the run game to an insane degree in Week 16, hanging 335 rushing yards on Tennessee. The Colts had 50 carries to just 11 pass attempts.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 1.5 Receptions (-150)
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Adam Thielen Anytime TD Scorer (+250)
By Sam Farley
Since returning from injury in Week 12 we've seen Adam Thielen cement himself as Bryce Young's favorite target in Carolina.
Thielen has scored twice in that five-game span and has constantly been somebody that Young has looked for in the red zone. One of those five games was Carolina's first matchup of the season against the Bucs, against whom Thielen had eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Pick: Adam Thielen Anytime TD Scorer (+250)
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Bucky Irving Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I'm going right back to attacking this Carolina run defense after hitting on James Conner last week. The Panthers have now allowed nearly 500 more rushing yards than the next-closest team. They're giving up 27 more rushing yards per game to running backs than the next-closest team. Carolina is allowing a league-leading 5.1 yards per carry to the position.
Bucky Irving appears to be fully healthy after leaving early in Week 14. He's handled 31 carries over the past two weeks. He dominated the rush share in Week 16, earning 84% of the running back carries. Rachaad White was limited to just three carries, his fewest since Week 8.
Tampa Bay is 8th in neutral run rate over the past four weeks. That stretch started with an overtime win over this Carolina team, with the Bucs running it 39 times. Irving posted a season-high 152 yards on 25 carries. Tampa Bay is a touchdown favorite at home in a game they desperately need to win in order to keep pace with Atlanta in the division. We should see a heavy focus on the run game.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Payne Durham Anytime TD Scorer (+330)
By Sam Farley
Cade Otton has been ruled out of this game meaning that Payne Durham will have an expanded role.
Durham saw seven targets last week against the Cowboys, catching five of them and although he didn't score, there's a far better chance he does on Sunday.
Nobody in the NFL has given up more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Panthers, who have allowed 10 in just 15 games.
Pick: Payne Durham Anytime TD Scorer (+330)
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Jets vs. Bills
Breece Hall Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Why the Jets are even playing their starters at this point I don't understand, but Breece Hall got the lion's share of the backfield last week with 77% of snaps and should see similar play in this spot.
Hall being used heavily in both the rushing and receiving game, so he's mostly game-script-proof and should see great volume in this spot. It's a tough matchup vs. the Bills, but the Jets have been keeping games close recently. Even as 10-point underdogs, I expect the Jets to try to score in this divisional game.
I have the true odds on Hall to score at around +130 making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Breece Hall Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
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Jets vs. Bills
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
Josh Allen has been on a tear recently and with only two weeks left in the season, I think he's going to try and increase his MVP odds. He's been keeping the ball heavily in the red zone in recent weeks with eight rushing and one receiving TD in the last six weeks.
While the one seed is out of reach for the Bills, they still have to win this weekend, or if the Ravens lose to lock up the second seed, so they still have something to play for. I have Allen at a 58% chance of scoring this weekend making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
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Titans vs. Jaguars
Chig Okonkwo Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Chig Okonkwo has piled up 17 catches on 21 targets over the past two games. He hadn't seen more than four targets in any game this season heading into this stretch.
The increase in volume seems to be directly tied to Tennessee's quarterback change. Okonkwo now has a 23.7% target per route run rate with Mason Rudolph under center. He was at just 14.5% with Will Levis. Okonkwo's yards per route run have jumped from 1.03 to 1.6 when it's Rudolph instead of Levis. He's run 65.8% of the routes in Weeks 15-16, up from 57.3% before this run.
Jacksonville is allowing the most passing yards per game. They're allowing the 10th-most yards per game to tight ends. Okonkwo didn't do much when these teams met in Week 13, but no one did. The Titans scored just six points and Levis was miserable. He would lose his job shortly after. Okonkwo is positioned for another strong performance with Rudolph at the helm.
Pick: Chig Okonkwo Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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