NFL Player Props Week 18: Alec Pierce & Zaire Franklin
In the table below, you'll find my top two NFL player props for Saturday of Week 18 targeting Alec Pierce and Zaire Franklin in Colts vs. Texans.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Texans vs. Colts
Alec Pierce
Longest Reception – Over 15.5 Yards (-114)
If you’ve been following along or tailing my NFL bets the last few seasons, you might be confused. While I’m usually on the under in this market, I see plenty of value on Pierce to haul in a long catch today.
The second-year pro leads the Colts in downfield targets and catches this season (defined as at least 20 air yards, data per Pro Football Focus). His average depth of target is 15.7 yards, which easily paces Indianapolis’ pass catchers.
And he’s seeing more volume lately, with 28 targets over his last six games. Overall, he’s cleared this line in 8-of-15 games.
The Texans rank 25th in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric against deep passes. They’ve really struggled lately, allowing 15 wide receivers to clear this line in their last seven games.
The Texans run defense has turned into one of the league’s best, ranking second in DVOA. For the Colts to move the ball today, I’m expecting higher pass volume, including some downfield shots to Pierce.
I have the Cincinnati product’s longest reception projected at 18 yards.
Texans vs. Colts
Zaire Franklin
Over 9.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)
Franklin, the NFL’s leading tackler entering Week 18, has accrued 170 combined tackles and assists this season. He’s cleared this line in 11-of-15 games this season.
Even with the emergence of fellow off-ball linebacker EJ Speed over the last few weeks, Franklin has still managed to clear this line in three of Speed’s five starts this season.
Per Pro Football Focus data, the Texans are allowing 17.5 linebacker tackles per game (seventh most in the NFL). Franklin recorded 13 tackles against Houston back in Week 2.
This game should be back and forth, with both teams ranking in the top eight of pace (in terms of seconds per play). Franklin, who has played 98.8% of his team’s defensive snaps when active, should have plenty of opportunity to cash in on this prop.
