NFL Week 5 has arrived, and I have NFL player props to target for the fifth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 5, which include picks for Mike Williams, Rome Odunze and Gardner Minshew. Keep tabs on this story as I add more NFL Week 5 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 3
- WR Mike Williams (Jets) Under 2.5 Receptions (-102; FanDuel)
- WR Rome Odunze (Bears) Longest Receptions Over 17.5 Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- QB Gardner Minshew (Raiders) Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
It seems like this prop might be too low for Williams, especially considering that he’s cleared this number in two straight games after getting eased into action to start the season due to his 2023 ACL tear.
But I do think there are a handful of underlying factors that are pulling my projection for him down a bit:
1) The past two games have been against the Patriots and Broncos, defenses that rank in the top four in percentage of time using man coverage. Williams tends to fare much better against man coverage than zone. The Vikings use zone at the second-highest rate, which could hurt Williams. target share.
2) Last week, shutdown corner Patrick Surtain shadowed Garrett Wilson (which benefited Williams). This week, I think we'll see Wilson’s target rate go way up as it's a matchup that sets up better for him, Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin.
3) Williams has caught 80% of his targets so far this season. His expected catch rate has been just 54.5% as he tends to get low-percentage targets downfield. So, I'd expect his catch rate to regress quite a bit going forward.
This game is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is outdoors. We could see winds around 10 mph and some potential rain, which would likely hurt Williams' target share.
I'm projecting him closer to 2.3 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay Under 2.5.
Odunze has cleared this mark in two of four games, but this is a market I think he should be very good in going forward. This is a good time to buy low.
His average depth of target is 16.5 yards (fifth-highest among qualified receivers), which means he tends to see quite a few targets where if he catches them, he'll clear this number with just one reception. He's also averaging five yards after the catch, which ranks 24th among receivers.
He has a very good mix of receiving deep targets and being able to rack up yards after the catch.
The main thing slowing him down so far is the fact that he’s only caught 44% of his targets, which is 11% lower than his “expected” catch rate.
No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams really specialized in downfield passes at USC and Odunze (No. 9 overall pick) is an excellent contested-catch receiver, so I'dd expect them to sync up on more downfield passes going forward.
I'm projecting Odunze's median closer to 21 with around a 62% chance of him clearing 17.5.
Not only will Minshew be without his top receiver in Davante Adams (who is dealing with a “hamstring” injury), but tight end Michael Mayer is also out and this is a brutal matchup against the Broncos.
Patrick Surtain has been a shutdown corner this year, so if he’s shadowing Jakobi Meyers, it could limit Minshew even more.
The Broncos blitz at the highest rate and have generated pressure at the sixth-highest rate. They should be able to generate a ton of pressure, especially because the right side of the Raiders offensive line is banged up.
Minshew has seen his completion percentage drop 40% when facing pressure, compared to a clean pocket. The Raiders were very run heavy last week and I expect them to try to do that again here. If they play with the lead, it’ll keep his pass attempts down.
But even if they get down and potentially get into a situation where they are forced to throw, we could see head coach Antonio Pierce decide to bench Minshew for Aidan O’Connell.
I think Minshew is on a fairly short leash right now, which gives him a very low floor for this prop.
