NFL Week 5 has arrived, and I have NFL player props to target for the fifth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 5, which include picks for Mike Williams, Rome Odunze and Gardner Minshew. Keep tabs on this story as I add more NFL Week 5 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 5
- WR Mike Williams (Jets) Under 2.5 Receptions (-102; FanDuel)
- WR Josh Downs (Colts) Over 4.5 Receptions (-120; BetMGM)(-130; DraftKings)
- RB James Cook (Bills) Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-110; DraftKings)
- WR Rome Odunze (Bears) Longest Receptions Over 17.5 Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- RB Cam Akers (Texans) Under 1.5 Receptions (-102; FanDuel)
- RB Zack Moss (Bengals) Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-104; FanDuel)
- QB Gardner Minshew (Raiders) Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
It seems like this prop might be too low for Williams, especially considering that he’s cleared this number in two straight games after getting eased into action to start the season due to his 2023 ACL tear.
But I do think there are a handful of underlying factors that are pulling my projection for him down a bit:
1) The past two games have been against the Patriots and Broncos, defenses that rank in the top four in percentage of time using man coverage. Williams tends to fare much better against man coverage than zone. The Vikings use zone at the second-highest rate, which could hurt Williams. target share.
2) Last week, shutdown corner Patrick Surtain shadowed Garrett Wilson (which benefited Williams). This week, I think we'll see Wilson’s target rate go way up as it's a matchup that sets up better for him, Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin.
3) Williams has caught 80% of his targets so far this season. His expected catch rate has been just 54.5% as he tends to get low-percentage targets downfield. So, I'd expect his catch rate to regress quite a bit going forward.
This game is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is outdoors. We could see winds around 10 mph and some potential rain, which would likely hurt Williams' target share.
I'm projecting him closer to 2.3 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay Under 2.5.
Joe Flacco will start for the injured Anthony Richardson, which will make the Colts much more pass heavy, with more accurate passes and the willingness to throw underneath to a slot receiver like Downs.
Jonathan Taylor is also out and the Jaguars are a pass funnel defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA. This is a perfect storm for more pass volume, specifically for Downs, who drew eight of his nine targets last week from Flacco. Downs tends to draw a high percentage of targets, which gives him a very high floor in this market.
I'm projecting him closer to 5.5 receptions with around a 64% chance he clears 4.5.
Cook has been held under this number in three of four games, but a lot of that has been due to the Bills being involved in three straight blowouts. (2-1 over that stretch).
Cook would likely see his biggest workloads in games that'll be close for all 60 minutes, and this could be one of them considering the current line is the Texans -1. Therefore, I looked at Cook’s usage ONLY when the game is within one score. Even then, he has only seen a 50% share of the team’s total rushing attempts.
That would put him at exactly 14 rush attempts considering my 28 total rush attempts for the Bills. However, I’m also expecting Josh Allen to start rushing at a higher rate as it seemed like the left-hand injury he suffered back in Week 2 was limiting his rush attempts, but he’s much more likely fully recovered from that.
With Khalil Shakir ruled out, we should see Curtis Samuel’s playing time go way up. I expect the Bills to potentially have a couple of designed run plays for Samuel, which could eat into Cook’s total rush attempts.
A close game where the Bills win by one score is the game script where this prop will be in trouble, but after adjusting to nearly every possible scenario imaginable, I’m getting his rush attempts projection at 13.7, with a 60% chance he stays under 14.5.
With Joe Mixon expected to miss another game, Akers is again set to be the starting running back for the Texans.
However, he typically sees most of his work on early downs and Dare Ogunbowale handles most of the passing work on 3rd down and in the two-minute offense.
Last week, Akers ran a route on 11 of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks, but failed to draw a single target. It’ll be even tougher for him to potentially draw a checkdown from Stroud as Tank Dell is expected back this week. J.J. Taylor was elevated to the active roster, meaning even if Dameon Pierce is ruled out again as well, we should see a similar running back rotation this week.
If Pierce is active, it could even mean Akers plays fewer snaps overall.
I'm projecting Akers closer to 1.2 receptions with around a 63% chance to stay under 1.5.
Odunze has cleared this mark in two of four games, but this is a market I think he should be very good in going forward. This is a good time to buy low.
His average depth of target is 16.5 yards (fifth-highest among qualified receivers), which means he tends to see quite a few targets where if he catches them, he'll clear this number with just one reception. He's also averaging five yards after the catch, which ranks 24th among receivers.
He has a very good mix of receiving deep targets and being able to rack up yards after the catch.
The main thing slowing him down so far is the fact that he’s only caught 44% of his targets, which is 11% lower than his “expected” catch rate.
No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams really specialized in downfield passes at USC and Odunze (No. 9 overall pick) is an excellent contested-catch receiver, so I'dd expect them to sync up on more downfield passes going forward.
I'm projecting Odunze's median closer to 21 with around a 62% chance of him clearing 17.5.
The Ravens have allowed just ONE rush to go for over 10 yards all season, and it was the 21-yard designed touchdown run by Xavier Worthy on opening night. That’s it.
Surely that is unsustainable and they are going to regress toward the league average of a 12% explosive run rate allowed. However, it’s clear this defense is very good against the run, while being a pass funnel. The Bengals will likely exploit this with a pass heavy game plan, especially if they are trailing.
Moss has seen his early down work get split nearly down the middle with Chase Brown, who has been more efficient. As a result, Moss is at risk at seeing fewer carries at any given moment.
Moss has five runs of over 10 yards on the season, but two came against the Commanders (who have allowed a league-high 20% explosive run rate) and another one went exactly 10 yards, which wouldn’t clear this prop.
I have his median closer to 9.5 with around a 58% chance to stay under 10.5.
I was very conservative in setting up my sim to get that number (I’m probably not weighing the Ravens 1.3% explosive run rate heavily enough) and all of the above factors only make it more likely we see Moss stay under this number.
Not only will Minshew be without his top receiver in Davante Adams (who is dealing with a “hamstring” injury), but tight end Michael Mayer is also out and this is a brutal matchup against the Broncos.
Patrick Surtain has been a shutdown corner this year, so if he’s shadowing Jakobi Meyers, it could limit Minshew even more.
The Broncos blitz at the highest rate and have generated pressure at the sixth-highest rate. They should be able to generate a ton of pressure, especially because the right side of the Raiders offensive line is banged up.
Minshew has seen his completion percentage drop 40% when facing pressure, compared to a clean pocket. The Raiders were very run heavy last week and I expect them to try to do that again here. If they play with the lead, it’ll keep his pass attempts down.
But even if they get down and potentially get into a situation where they are forced to throw, we could see head coach Antonio Pierce decide to bench Minshew for Aidan O’Connell.
I think Minshew is on a fairly short leash right now, which gives him a very low floor for this prop.
