NFL Week 9 has arrived, and I have some NFL player props to target for the ninth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 9, which include picks for a number of defensive players, plus running backs Nick Chubb and Javonte Williams. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 9 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 9
- LB Eric Kendricks Under 9.5 Tackles + Assists (+105; DraftKings)
- LB Cody Barton Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+107; ESPN BET)
- RB Javonte Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- RB Nick Chubb Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-120; DraftKings)
- DT Calais Campbell Under 3.5 Tackles (-105; DraftKings)
- LB Logan Wilson Under 9.5 Tackles (-125; BetMGM)
Cowboys vs Falcons Player Props: Eric Kendricks Tackles + Assists
Kendricks has averaged 10.1 tackles a game, but he has had a very favorable schedule thus far as I have him expected to see around +9% tackles over expected against league average. Therefore, against a league-average schedule he would likely be averaging 9.3 tackles per game.
Now, he faces a Falcons team that has provided the fewest tackle opportunities to linebackers.
The Falcons rush outside the tackles at the highest rate in the league, which invites cornerbacks and safeties to be more involved in tackles in the run game. Kirk Cousins doesn’t scramble either and I have Dallas projected to face around four fewer rush attempts than its season average, which means fewer tackle opportunities for Kendricks in general.
There's also the fact that he’s playing through a shoulder injury. I’m projecting Kendricks for 100% of the snaps, but there’s a chance he may need to take some plays off given his injury.
I'm projecting him closer to 8.7 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 9.5. Plus odds is an added bonus here.
Broncos vs Ravens Player Props: Cody Barton Tackles + Assists
Barton is coming off a two-tackle tackle game against the Panthers — not surpising considering Carolina is one of the worst matchups for linebackers. But now he gets one of the best matchups against the Ravens.
Barton is very involved in run defense, so getting to face Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is even more of a plus matchup.
Ever since taking on a full-time role in Week 4, he’s faced 25.5 rush attempts per game — I have the Ravens projected for 31.5 rush attempts, which would provide around six more rush tackling opportunities than usual.
Denver ranks second in pressure rate, which means Jackson should face more pressure than usual. His aDot drops to 7.6 when facing pressure vs. an aDot of 9.4 from a clean pocket.
Shorter throws will provide Barton with more tackling opportunities in the passing game as well.
I'm projecting Barton closer to 8.7 tackles with around a 63% chance to clear 7.5.
Broncos vs Ravens Player Props: Javonte Williams Receiving Yards
The Broncos have won five of their last six games, but in a potential trailing game script this week (Broncos are +9), I think it’s a good time to invest in Williams' receiving upside.
Not only should the Broncos pass more in a trailing game script, but Williams' routes run rate and target share goes up when trailing (+4% target rate when Denver is behind).
It’s going to be tough for Williams to find running room against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. They are a pass-funnel defense and it would make sense to have checkdowns be part of Denver's offensive attack this week.
FB Michael Burton was cut so Nate Adkins will operate as Denver's FB/TE hybrid; Burton being let go should free up Williams for more backfield targets. Plus, the Ravens blitz at the seventh-lowest rate and Williams' target rate goes up +12% when Bo Nix isn’t blitzed. The Raven also allow the fifth-most yards per pass play to RBs.
I'm projecting his median closer to 22.5 yards with around a 60% chance to clear 18.5.
Chargers vs Browns Player Props: Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Chubb has two games under his belt after returning from last season’s devastating knee injury, and he should only get better as he gets more in-game reps. I think it’s the perfect time to buy low on his receiving usage.
He only has one catch for 10 yards in the last two games, but he has seen five total targets. The four incomplete passes were either bad throws or passes that were batted down at the line of scrimmage.
Chubb saw snaps in the two-minute offense last week. His receiving upside will be even higher if he can maintain that role going forward.
It’s unclear what Jerome Ford’s role will be in his return, but I’m guessing he takes over most of Pierre Strong’s snaps as opposed to cutting into Chubb’s workload.
The Chargers present a plus matchup for Chubb — they have allowed the fourth-highest YAC over expected on backfield targets, so Chubb may be able to clear this with one catch.
I’m projecting him for 1.7 receptions, meaning a 50-50 chance he gets two receptions, which should be more than enough to clear this.
I have his median closer to 8.5 yards with around a 61% chance to clear 6.5. He has a 10% chance to end with eight yards exactly — the most likely result is an eight-yard catch or two catches that total up to eight.
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props: Calais Campbell Tackles
This is a tough spot for Campbell as the Bills offer the second-fewest tackles to DTs and 12th fewest to EDGE rushers. Campbell lines up as a DT 70% of the time and 30% on the edge, a split that I've adjusted for.
Campbell gets most of his tackles on sacks and short run plays up the middle. This a spot where it’ll be much tougher for him to get a sack considering the Bills have allowed a league-low 10 sacks this season.
His tackle rate drops when the Dolphins are trailing, which means as a 6.5-point underdogs, it’s yet another factor that should lower Campbell’s tackle rate. He only managed one tackle against the Bills in Week 2, which only backs up my model’s belief that this as a tough spot for him to clear this number.
I'm projecting Campbell closer to 3.1 tackles with around a 60% chance of staying under 3.5.
Raiders vs Bengals Player Props: Logan Wilson Tackles
Wilson typically warrants a number this high as he’s cleared this in four of eight games this season. However, there are a couple of reasons why I’m projecting for him to go under.
First, Wilson may not have as many tackle opportunities considering the Bengals are expected to face nearly 10 fewer rushing attempts against the Raiders vs. their season average and roughly the same number of completions (21.5). That’s a huge drop-off in potential tackles for Wilson.
Second, he tends to see a big drop in tackle rate when the Bengals play with the lead, which is very likely given they are seven-point home favorites. Germaine Pratt tends to see more tackles in these spots. Pratt and Von Bell are the two defenders most likely to be in on tackling Brock Bowers. Wilson will mix in as well, but not enough to warrant a prop number this high.
I'm projecting Wilson closer to 8.5 tackles with around a 65% chance to stay under 9.5.
