NFL Player Props: Wild Card Picks & Best Bets (Monday)
We have NFL player props for today's doubleheader. Our betting analysts have you covered for both Steelers-Bills and Eagles-Bucs. Click on a prop in the table below to navigate this post.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Steelers vs. Bills
Josh Allen
Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Despite this game being moved to Monday, we're still going to see a weather forecast that isn't kind to passing offenses. The weather is likely to be in the teens with 13-15 mph wins. Plus, there will be snow, both residual on the ground and more falling throughout the day.
Allen has some massive home/road splits as the months have gotten colder this year. He hit the under at this number in three of the last four home games with the Bills focused on the ground game in tough weather.
Add in the tough Pittsburgh defense, and this is a solid under.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)
George Pickens
Under 3.5 Receptions (+138)
By Tony Sartori
The majority of the discourse surrounding this game has been the weather, which is going to be detrimental on Monday, even with the game being postponed for a day.
On top of the conditions, the Steelers' wideouts are going to have Mason Rudolph tossing them the rock, and that may be the biggest handicap of all. With Rudolph at the helm against Baltimore last week, George Pickens was absent from the stat sheet entirely.
Rudolph has been starting to link up with Diontae Johnson more, but all of this may be mute in a game where throwing the football will be difficult. That is why the props market has tanked over the past week, but I still think there is value in fading Pickens' reception prop.
Even if the ball is throwable, the Bills' secondary is up to the task. This season, Buffalo ranked eighth in the league in yards allowed per game and seventh in passing yards allowed per game.
Its underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as the Bills rank seventh in expected points contributed by passing defense. I would play this line up to (+120).
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James Cook
Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)
By Cody Goggin
The ground game should be more prevalent for both teams in this game, even though the forecast is slightly more kind at Monday's start time than it would've been on Sunday afternoon. This leaves opportunity for running backs on both sides to potentially hit the over on their yardage props with this increased workload.
One of the major changes Joe Brady made since taking over this offense was getting the ball into James Cook’s hands more often. Prior to Brady taking over, Cook was averaging 12 carries a game compared to 16.7 in the seven games since the change. In fact, Cook hasn’t had fewer than 13 rushes in any of these games.
Leonard Fournette did enter the fold last week with seven carries, but I still believe that Cook will shoulder a majority of the load in this run-heavy game.
Pittsburgh’s run defense has been strong this year, ranking in the top 10 by most metrics. However, the Steelers' highest-graded run-defender, T.J. Watt, will be missing this game with a knee injury sustained in Week 18. Without Watt, this Steelers defense likely won’t be as menacing as usual.
Buffalo is a strong favorite in this game and if it gets an early lead, we should see the Bills lean into the run even more, leading to more opportunities for Cook. While I like looking toward Cook’s yardage totals, I believe that taking the over on his rushing attempts is a better bet.
I would take this up to 16.5 at even money or 15.5 at -115.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Kenneth Gainwell
Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)
There’s a lot of concern for this Eagles team as it continues a spiral toward mediocrity. Losers in five of six, Philly will now be without A.J. Brown as Jalen Hurts plays through a finger injury suffered in the final week of the season.
That finger being bent the wrong way has not been discussed enough in my opinion. He won’t be able to throw deep as accurately and in a potential negative game script, the Eagles could rely on pass-catching back Kenneth Gainwell down the stretch.
No Brown means more targets to be had and Hurts’ finger injury could result in shorter, more high-percentage looks. Who is better for the job than Gainwell?
While Tampa is a strong defense when it comes to limiting explosive plays to running backs through the air — just 26 yards per game — the Bucs still allow nearly 4.5 receptions per game. Gainwell’s prop is currently slated at 1.5 receptions, a number that he’s gone over in two of the last three.
D’Andre Swift is going to get a lion’s share of the carries, but Gainwell should take control of the receiving game.
In an expected close bout and with the Eagles shorthanded, expect Gainwell to see an uptick in production. For what it’s worth, our Action Projections have this closer to 2.5 receptions, a 20.3% edge.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)
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Cade Otton
Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
By Stuckey
Cade Otton could be in for a big night against the Eagles, who have really struggled to cover tight ends all season.
During the regular season, Philly allowed tight ends to catch a whopping 86 passes on 115 targets (74.8% completion rate) for 859 yards. That averages out to just under five catches and 48 yards per game, including a game against a Dolphins team that rarely utilizes its tight end and finished with no production from the position against the Eagles.
Plus, as a result of injuries on the back end and a steep decline in production from safety Reed Blankenship, the results got even worse in the second half of the year. Since Week 8, the Eagles have allowed opposing tight ends to average 5.8 receptions for 57.3 yards.
Believe it or not, since Week 9, Philly's defense ranks 31st in EPA per Play. Plus, the offense has also fallen off a cliff and will now potentially have to deal with injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. A less efficient offense equates to extra snaps for Tampa Bay.
When the Bucs do have the ball, I don't expect them to have much success on the ground. They finished the regular season ranked 28th in Run DVOA, and Philly's defense is still much stronger against the run. That should lead to plenty of passing downs for Otton to get looks.
Also, with Baker Mayfield hobbled against a still very stout pass rush (with some potentially extreme weather to boot), he'll likely have to get rid of the ball much quicker, potentially increasing Otton's target share. Also, Philly may focus its efforts on slowing down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as you'd expect.
While Otton is far from elite, he'll be on the field for a majority of the game and should get all of the potential targets to Bucs TEs. He does have 50 targets over the last 11 games. Otton also has caught 13 passes for 12 or more yards on the season, so there's a good chance he clears his receiving yards (and longest catch) on one reception against an Eagles defense that has allowed 22 completions of at least 12 yards to opposing tight ends. Finally, over their past six games, the Eagles have allowed tight ends to catch nine passes that went for at least 13 yards with eight of them going for 20 or more yards.
