Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Monday Night
With their overtime win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, the Philadelphia Eagles tie the Dallas Cowboys with a 6-7 record. America's Team currently holds the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win earlier in the season, and thus remains the 4-seed in the NFC. But the two teams will meet again in Philadelphia in Week 16.
Our model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — now gives the Eagles a 36.6% chance to win the division and the Cowboys a 63.4% chance.
With the conference's first wild-card spot likely going to either the 49ers or Seahawks and the Vikings holding a steady lead for the second slot, winning the division is effectively the Eagles' only path to the postseason.
The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints also have tied records — 10-3 — but Aaron Rodgers and Co. hold the edge for the current 2-seed thanks to a better conference record.
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-5)
8. Cleveland Browns (6-7)
9. Oakland Raiders (6-7)
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Late Sunday Night
The following updates are based on the results of all of Sunday's games.
With the NFC's top seed on the line, the Seattle Seahawks fell to the Los Angeles Rams.
The San Francisco 49ers take over the conference's No. 1 spot thanks to the Sunday Night Football result and their own emotional win over the New Orleans Saints in the Big Easy. That loss dropped the Saints to No. 3, elevating the Green Bay Packers to the second spot with their win over the Washington Redskins.
Our model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — gives the 49ers the best chance of finishing as the No. 1 seed (73.7%) while the Seahawks are down to a 13.8% chance.
A couple more high-level takeaways from Sunday:
- The Kansas City Chiefs clinched the AFC West with their win over the New England Patriots.
- The Baltimore Ravens clinched a playoff berth with their victory over the Buffalo Bills.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers held onto the sixth spot in the AFC.
- The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are now tied at 8-5, with the Texans holding the temporary edge over the Titans thanks to a better division record. The two teams have a pair of head-to-head matchups over the final three weeks that will determine the AFC South.
Now let's take a look at the current AFC and NFC playoff pictures, then dig into our model's projected final brackets.
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-5)
8. Cleveland Browns (6-7)
9. Oakland Raiders (6-7)
Our Projected 2019 NFL Playoff Bracket After Sunday's Games
Below is how we're projecting the end-of-season bracket with Week 14 results factored in (minus Monday Night Football).
We projected the top-four seeds of each conference by ranking the most likely division winners by their chances to land the 1-4 seeds. Then we identified teams with the next-highest playoff odds and assigned the subsequent standings based on highest average wins.
Projected Final NFC Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 76.10%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 73.7%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 75.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 20.30%
2. New Orleans Saints
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 100.00%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 9.3%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 54.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 13.70%
3. Green Bay Packers
- Chance to make playoffs: 96.50%
- Chance to win division: 75.90%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 3.2%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 41%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.30%
4. Dallas Cowboys
- Chance to make playoffs: 80.80%
- Chance to win division: 80.00%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.60%
5. Seattle Seahawks
- Chance to make playoffs: 98.00%
- Chance to win division: 23.90%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 13.8%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 22.6%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.50%
6. Minnesota Vikings
- Chance to make playoffs: 77.20%
- Chance to win division: 24.10%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 5.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.30%
Projected Final AFC Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 99.90%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 92.6%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 96.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 25.00%
2. New England Patriots
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 97.20%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 6%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 81.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 15.10%
3. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 100.00%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 1.4%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 18.9%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.30%
4. Houston Texans
- Chance to make playoffs: 74.20%
- Chance to win division: 58.80%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0.20%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.60%
5. Buffalo Bills
- Chance to make playoffs: 94.60%
- Chance to win division: 2.80%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 1.50%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.30%
6. Tennessee Titans
- Chance to make playoffs: 60.70%
- Chance to win division: 40.20%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0.8%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Late Sunday Afternoon
The following updates are based on the results of the 4 p.m. ET games.
The AFC South race has tightened once again.
The Tennessee Titans have tied the Houston Texans at 8-5 atop the AFC South with division-deciding, head-to-head matchups on deck: In Nashville in Week 15 then Houston in Week 17. Deshaun Watson and Co. hold the tiebreaker (for now) with a better record in the division.
Our simulations gave Houston a 61.70% chance of winning the division and Tennesse a 35.90% chance heading into the Titans-Raiders game.
The Titans still sit just outside of the playoff picture, with the 8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers holding the tiebreaker over Tennessee thanks to a better record in the conference.
The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, clinched the AFC West with their victory over the New England Patriots. The Pats are still No. 2 in the conference, though the win places the Chiefs at No. 3 with the Texans falling to No. 4 following their loss.
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-5)
8. Cleveland Browns (6-7)
9. Oakland Raiders (6-7)
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Sunday Afternoon
The following updates are based on the results of the 1 p.m. ET games.
Introducing the NFC's new No. 1 seed: The San Francisco 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. edged out the New Orleans Saints, 48-46, on a game-winning field goal to overtake the conference's top spot … at least temporarily. The lead would transfer to the Seattle Seahawks with a win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.
Our Updated Projections for the NFC's Final No. 1 Seed
- 49ers: 63.60%
- Seahawks: 23.70%
- Saints: 10.60%%
The Houston Texans' loss to the Denver Broncos also sets up some interesting scenarios for the late-afternoon slate:
- If the Tennessee Titans win in Oakland, they would tie the Texans at 8-5, though Deshaun Watson and Co. would maintain the AFC South lead thanks to a better record in the division. The Titans and Texans meet twice over the final three weeks. Our simulations give the Texans a 61.70% chance of winning the division, and the Titans a 35.90% chance.
- If the Kansas City Chiefs win in Foxborough, they would hold onto the AFC's 3-seed (after entering the day as the 4-seed).
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens officially clinched and held onto the top spot in the AFC with their win over the Buffalo Bills, though the Bills will remain the 5-seed regardless of how the rest of the week plays out. Our sims give the Ravens a 78% chance of finishing as the 1-seed and the Bills a 94% chance of making the playoffs (and 73.20% chance of finish as the 5-seed).
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
8. Oakland Raiders (6-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
Sunday Morning
Ravens-Bills. 49ers-Saints. Seahawks-Rams.
There are a number of pivotal matchups that could shift the playoff picture in Week 14.
Let's take a quick look at the current AFC and NFC standings as of Sunday morning before digging into what's at stake in today's games. Below you'll also find our projections for every team's playoff chances plus projected brackets for both conferences.
Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture & Standings
Standings current as of Sunday morning.
AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
3. Houston Texans (8-4)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
8. Oakland Raiders (6-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
The Baltimore Ravens would maintain the top position in the AFC with a win over the Buffalo Bills, who would still hold onto the 5-seed thanks to a significant lead in the wild-card race.
The New England Patriots will also hold onto their standing regardless of how their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs ends, though they'd clinch their postseason berth with a win. On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes and Co. would have a chance to overtake the Houston Texans for the No. 3 spot with a win in Foxborough, but only if the Texans lose as 9-point home favorites to the Denver Broncos.
If the Chiefs and Texans both win, Houston would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City to maintain the current 1-4 standings.
Meanwhile, there are three teams playing for the 6-seed today. The most pivotal matchup will be Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals. If the Steelers win, they'll maintain their position. But if they lose, then the winner of the Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders matchup would take over as the 6-seed.
The Indianapolis Colts really have no hope of claiming that spot today — even if the Colts can tie the Steelers and/or Raiders with a record of 7-6, Pittsburgh and Oakland would both hold the tiebreaker over Indianapolis with the better conference record.
NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. New Orleans Saints (10-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
The San Francisco 49ers could officially clinch their playoff berth with a win over the New Orleans Saints, if the Los Angeles Rams lose to the Seattle Seahawks tonight. However, if the 49ers and Seahawks both win, Seattle would still maintain control of the NFC West thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker victory.
Russell Wilson and Co. would also move into first in the NFC in that scenario. And if the Green Bay Packers also win, Aaron Rodgers and Co. would leapfrog the Saints to assume the No. 2 position thanks to a better conference record.
(The Seahawks would clinch regardless of the 49ers-Saints outcome.)
As for teams on the bubble, the Los Angeles Rams have an outside chance to move into the NFC's sixth spot with a win over the Seahawks and a Minnesota Vikings loss. But considering the Rams are home underdogs and the Vikings are double-digit home favorites against the Lions, those chances seem slim.
Our Projected 2019 NFL Playoff Bracket
Below is how we're projecting the end-of-season bracket (as of Sunday morning).
We projected the top-four seeds of each conference by ranking the most likely division winners by their chances to land the 1-4 seeds. Then we identified teams with the next-highest playoff odds and assigned the subsequent standings based on highest average wins.
Projected Final AFC Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 99.80%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 61.3%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 95.3%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 25.30%
2. New England Patriots
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 96.80%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 35%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 91.3%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
3. Houston Texans
- Chance to make playoffs: 88.30%
- Chance to win division: 72.60%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 2.6%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.60%
4. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chance to make playoffs: 99.60%
- Chance to win division: 99.60%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 1.5%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 7.6%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.50%
5. Buffalo Bills
- Chance to make playoffs: 95.30%
- Chance to win division: 3.20%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 2.2%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 3%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.30%
6. Tennessee Titans
- Chance to make playoffs: 43.40%
- Chance to win division: 23.40%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0.10%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.60%
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chance to make playoffs: 48.40%
- Chance to win division: 0.20%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0.10%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
8. Indianapolis Colts
- Chance to make playoffs: 11.00%
- Chance to win division: 4.00%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.30%
9. Oakland Raiders
- Chance to make playoffs: 9.40%
- Chance to win division: 0.40%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0%
Projected AFC Bracket
- No. 6 Tennessee Titans at No. 3 Houston Texans
- No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs
- Byes: Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots
Projected Final NFC Standings
1. New Orleans Saints
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 100.00%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 44.8%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 80.1%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 17.00%
2. Green Bay Packers
- Chance to make playoffs: 95.80%
- Chance to win division: 78.40%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 1.4%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 20.3%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.40%
3. San Francisco 49ers
- Chance to make playoffs: 99.40%
- Chance to win division: 53.30%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 36%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 52.4%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 18.10%
4. Dallas Cowboys
- Chance to make playoffs: 70.50%
- Chance to win division: 70.50%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.70%
5. Seattle Seahawks
- Chance to make playoffs: 99.50%
- Chance to win division: 46.50%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 17.8%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 44.5%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.20%
6. Minnesota Vikings
- Chance to make playoffs: 75.10%
- Chance to win division: 20.10%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 2.6%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.80%
7. Los Angeles Rams
- Chance to make playoffs: 23.00%
- Chance to win division: 0.20%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0.10%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.70%
8. Chicago Bears
- Chance to make playoffs: 6.70%
- Chance to win division: 1.50%
- Chance to finish as 1-seed: 0%
- Chance to get first-round bye: 0%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0%
Projected NFC Bracket
- No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 San Francisco 49ers
- No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys
- Byes: New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers
