Thirteen of 15 favorites won their Week 8 matchups outright, so the NFL playoff picture hasn't changed much.
Our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — does give notable boosts to New Orleans' and the San Francisco's chances to win the Super Bowl with the Saints improving from 10.76% to 17.23% and the Niners from 10.99% to 13.60% week-over-week.
So how does our model project every team's postseason chances coming out of Week 8? We'll rank the odds for all 32 and much more below, but before we dig in, let's take a quick look at the current playoff standings.
Note: You can sift through every team's chances to secure specific playoff seeding and much more in the table at the very end of this story.
Current NFL Playoff Picture & Standings
AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
- New England Patriots (8-0)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
- Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
- Buffalo Bills (5-2)
- Houston Texans (5-3)
NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
- San Francisco 49ers (7-0)
- New Orleans Saints (7-1)
- Green Bay Packers (7-1)
- Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
1. New England Patriots
- Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
- Chance to win division: 99.52%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 36.12%
What happens when your defense allows a league-low 7.6 points per game and scores a league-high 21 touchdowns? You go 8-0.
2. New Orleans Saints
- Chance to make playoffs: 97.67%
- Chance to win division: 94.78%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 17.23%
It's a two-horse race between the Saints and 49ers atop the NFC. Ours sims give New Orleans a 38.63% chance to secure the 1-seed.
3. San Francisco 49ers
- Chance to make playoffs: 96.33%
- Chance to win division: 79.70%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 13.60%
The 7-0 Niners have a marginally worse chance to make the playoffs than New Orleans — hence why they sit at No. 3 in these rankings — but our model gives them a slightly better chance to finish with the top seed (39.61%).
4. Green Bay Packers
- Chance to make playoffs: 91.39%
- Chance to win division: 74.92%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.67%
The Packers squeaked out a Sunday Night Football win over the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs to move to 7-1. Our sims give Green Bay a 15.18% chance to lock in the NFC's No. 1 seed.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chance to make playoffs: 88.97%
- Chance to win division: 85.71%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.00%
The Chiefs still have a clear path to an AFC West title with the timeline for Mahomes' return hanging in the balance.
6. Baltimore Ravens
- Chance to make playoffs: 87.98%
- Chance to win division: 81.33%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.99%
The Ravens return from bye to a big Sunday Night Football showdown against the Patriots. Baltimore opened as a 3.5-point underdog.
7. Indianapolis Colts
- Chance to make playoffs: 73.67%
- Chance to win division: 46.16%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.64%
The race for the AFC South crown remains tight, but our model gives Indy a slight edge with a 46.16% chance to win it (compared to Houston's 40.74% chance).
8. Houston Texans
- Chance to make playoffs: 73.20%
- Chance to win division: 40.74%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.45%
The Texans head across the pond for a divisional showdown with the Jaguars on Sunday.
9. Minnesota Vikings
- Chance to make playoffs: 69.70%
- Chance to win division: 22.54%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.04%
Our model hasn't counted the Vikings out of the NFC North, giving them a 22.54% chance to win it.
10. Buffalo Bills
- Chance to make playoffs: 63.49%
- Chance to win division: 0.48%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.18%
The Bills were blown out by the Eagles, but their standing in the AFC wild-card race hasn't changed much.
11. Dallas Cowboys
- Chance to make playoffs: 60.50%
- Chance to win division: 57.82%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.11%
The 4-3 Cowboys are in the driver's seat of the NFC East with a 57.82% chance to take the crown and firmly in the wild-card race.
12. Seattle Seahawks
- Chance to make playoffs: 52.79%
- Chance to win division: 12.67%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.43%
The Seahawks find themselves in the heat of the NFC wild-card race with what should be a relatively easy home matchup against the Buccaneers before a road date with the 49ers in Week 10.
13. Los Angeles Rams
- Chance to make playoffs: 52.40%
- Chance to win division: 7.60%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.70%
The Rams went from NFC champs last season to third-place in the NFC West at 5-3. If the season ended today, they'd miss the playoffs, but our model still gives them greater than a 50% chance of making it.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
- Chance to make playoffs: 44.71%
- Chance to win division: 40.43%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.23%
Our sims might like the Cowboys to win the NFC East, but they still give the Eagles a significant chance at 40.43%. Philly has a three-game home stretch with a bye sandwiched between, but get the Patriots in Week 11.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chance to make playoffs: 28.64%
- Chance to win division: 10.60%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.28%
The Steelers let the Dolphins jump out to a 14-0 lead on Monday Night Football, but Mike Tomlin's team rallied to win 27-14 and still have near a one-third chance to make the postseason, even with the conservative Mason Rudolph-led offense.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chance to make playoffs: 22.25%
- Chance to win division: 7.69%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.14%
The Jaguars are only 1.5-point underdogs against the Texans for Sunday's showdown in London. A win would catapult Jacksonville firmly back into the mix atop the division.
17. Tennessee Titans
- Chance to make playoffs: 17.71%
- Chance to win division: 5.41%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.22%
The Titans' decision to stick with Ryan Tannehill has paid off, as he's led them to two straight (if narrow) wins.
18. Cleveland Browns
- Chance to make playoffs: 17.58%
- Chance to win division: 8.06%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.15%
After all the preseason hype, the Browns are now 2-5. No one really expected them to beat the Patriots outright, but they didn't even cover as double-digit dogs.
19. Carolina Panthers
- Chance to make playoffs: 16.49%
- Chance to win division: 5.05%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.24%
The Panthers got steamrolled by the 49ers, falling 51-13. Kyle Allen was 4-0 as Carolina's starter before throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns, but will get the start again as Cam Newton continues to rehab.
20. Los Angeles Chargers
- Chance to make playoffs: 14.60%
- Chance to win division: 9.81%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.31%
The Chargers ended their three-loss skid with a 17-16 win over the Bears. Still, their postseason outlook seems bleak at this point.
21. Oakland Raiders
- Chance to make playoffs: 10.01%
- Chance to win division: 4.09%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%
The Raiders played the Texans close on the road, ultimately losing 27-24. Things have been otherwise uninspiring in Oakland following an eventful offseason.
22. Detroit Lions
- Chance to make playoffs: 7.66%
- Chance to win division: 1.32%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.05%
The Lions sit at 3-3-1 and third in the NFC North. There's not much to see around this middle-of-the-road season.
23. Chicago Bears
- Chance to make playoffs: 6.46%
- Chance to win division: 1.22%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.15%
Matt Nagy's encore to the Bears' 2018 NFC North title has not gone to plan. With last week's loss, they're now below .500 and have almost no hope to see the postseason.
24. New York Giants
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.81%
- Chance to win division: 1.73%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
Don't confuse the Giants' trade for Leonard Williams as a win-now move. At 2-6, they have a very slim chance at the postseason, but a 33.22% chance to land a top-five pick in the 2020 draft.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.42%
- Chance to win division: 0.16%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.02%
The marriage of Jameis Winston and Bruce Arians hasn't panned out quite as well as the Buccaneers had hoped. They sit at 2-5 heading into a tough matchup at Seattle.
26. Denver Broncos
- Chance to make playoffs: 1.06%
- Chance to win division: 0.39%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%
The Broncos fell to 2-6 after losing to the Colts on a last-minute, 51-yard field goal. Now Joe Flacco is dealing with a neck injury that will sideline him for Sunday's matchup with the Browns.
27. New York Jets
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.83%
- Chance to win division: 0.00%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
The Jets are 3-point favorites for this week's matchup with the Dolphins, but are tied for the second-worst record against the spread at 2-5.
28. Arizona Cardinals
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.64%
- Chance to win division: 0.03%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
The Cardinals' backfield is shelled heading into a Thursday Night Football showdown with the 49ers, trading for Kenyan Drake as a short-term fix for injuries to David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. They're only 3-4-1, but are 5-3 ATS.
29. Washington Redskins
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.02%
- Chance to win division: 0.02%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
Dwayne Haskins did not provide much hope in relief for Case Keenum, who entered the concussion protocol at halftime of this past Sunday's game. Our sims give them a 77% chance of securing a top-five draft pick.
30. Atlanta Falcons
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
- Chance to win division: 0.01%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
The Falcons carry a 1-7 record into the bye week, over which team owner Arthur Blank said he'd be evaluating Dan Quinn's status, though also added he had no plans to make a coaching change.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
- Chance to win division: 0.01%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
The 0-8 Bengals are benching Andy Dalton and are expected to start rookie Ryan Finley when they return from bye.
32. Miami Dolphins
- Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
- Chance to win division: 0.00%
- Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%
The 'Tank 4 Tua' campaign marches on for the winless Dolphins — our models gives them a 72.34% chance to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft.
