Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Monday Night Football
The Green Bay Packers are your NFC North champs.
With their win over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football, the Packers are guaranteed to finish no worse than the NFC’s 3-seed. At 12-3 along with the 49ers and Saints, a first-round bye and the top seed are still in play for the Packers, pending how Week 17 shakes out.
For now, the Packers sit No. 2 in the conference.
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Sunday Night
The Kansas City Chiefs improve to 11-4 with their win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. They still have an outside shot at the AFC's No. 2 seed: A win over the Chargers combined with a New England Patriots loss would bring them both to 12-4, and the Chiefs would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. But of course with the Patriots 16.5-point home favorites against the Dolphins, that seems highly unlikely.
The Patriots would secure the first-round bye with a win next week.
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Sunday Evening
The following updates include results of games that kicked off after 4 p.m. ET.
The Philadelphia Eagles are in control of their own postseason fate.
With Sunday's win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles improve to 8-7 and take over the top spot in the NFC East. They'll officially win the division and punch their playoff ticket with a victory over the New York Giants next week.
And at the top of the NFC, the race for the top seeds just opened up.
The Seattle Seahawks' loss opens a path to the No. 1 seed for both the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Those scenarios will become more clear on Monday night, when the Packers host the Minnesota Vikings. Of course, that path to the top seed is still open for the San Francisco 49ers, who would clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win over the Seahawks next Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders aren't done yet. They needed various results to fall their way to stay alive today — including beating the Chargers in Los Angeles — and each one did.
Our model, which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, gave the Raiders a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs heading into Sunday. That's now up to 11.9% with today's results.
It'll be a narrow path forward for Jon Gruden's team, but here's how they could sneak in as the AFC's final wild card next week:
- Beat the Broncos in Denver
- Have the Titans (at Houston) and Steelers (at Baltimore) lose
- Have the Colts win (at Jacksonville)
Our Latest AFC Playoff Projections
The percentage chance for each AFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 100%
- Tennessee Titans: 58.8%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 29.3%
- Oakland Raiders: 11.9%
NFC Projections
The percentage chance for each NFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 100%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 66.4%
- Dallas Cowboys: 33.6%
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-2)*
2. New England Patriots (12-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (10-5)*
5. Buffalo Bills (10-5)*
6. Tennessee Titans (8-7)
In the Hunt:
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
8. Oakland Raiders (7-8)
* = Clinched
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (12-3)*
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3)*
3. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
4. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)*
In the Hunt:
7. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
* = Clinched
NFL Playoff Picture: Sunday Afternoon
The following updates include results of games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET.
The Baltimore Ravens are your AFC No. 1 seed.
With their win over the Browns, Lamar Jackson and Co. have secured a first-round bye and home-field advantage. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have officially been eliminated.
Meanwhile, despite their loss to the Saints, the Tennessee Titans are effectively in control of their own playoff path: If they can win in Houston next week, they're in. The Titans currently sit No. 6 in the conference thanks to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who fall just outside the picture with their loss to the Jets.
Our Latest AFC Playoff Projections
The percentage chance for each AFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 100%
- Tennessee Titans: 61.7%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 34.9%
- Oakland Raiders: 3.4%
NFC Projections
The percentage chance for each NFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 100%
- Dallas Cowboys: 69.2%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 3087%
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (12-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (10-5)*
5. Buffalo Bills (10-5)*
6. Tennessee Titans (8-7)
In the Hunt:
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
* = Clinched
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (12-3)*
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3)*
3. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)*
In the Hunt:
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
* = Clinched
NFL Playoff Picture: Scenarios for Sunday
The NFC East could be decided this afternoon when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys.
Here's how the result could impact the division race:
- If the Cowboys win: They would clinch the NFC East thanks to season sweep/head-to-head tiebreaker.
- If the Eagles win: They could still win the division with a Week 17 win at the Giants.
With the Minnesota Vikings officially clinching a playoff berth on Saturday, the only way for either the Cowboys or Eagles to make the postseason is by winning the division — i.e. loser goes home.
Elsewhere in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks could regain control of the West with a home win against the Cardinals. And the NFC North is still up for grabs, albeit in an unlikely scenario: For the Vikings to take the division crown, they would have to win out and have the Green Bay Packers lose out.
Meanwhile, in the AFC, five of the six spots are now accounted for — the only spot up for grabs is the final wild card. And it's looking like the Pittsburgh Steelers have the best chance to finish with it: If they win their next two games, it's theirs. Even if they win only one, they would still have a shot as they would hold the tiebreaker against the Tennessee Titans. Both are 8-6 heading into the day.
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Saturday Night
The Los Angeles Rams have officially been eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
While their path to the postseason was slim heading into the day — the Rams would've needed to win out and have the Minnesota Vikings lose out to make it — it's an undoubtedly tough end to the season for the reigning NFC champs.
Saturday night's result — a 49ers victory on a game-winning field goal from Robbie Gould — also bumps San Francisco to the top of the NFC West and thus the conference's No. 1 seed … at least temporarily. If the Seattle Seahawks (-9) beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, they'll regain control of the division thanks to a tie-breaking head-to-head win over the Niners earlier this season.
The Minnesota Vikings also clinched with the Rams' loss.
NFC Projections
The percentage chance for each NFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 100%
- Dallas Cowboys: 64.3%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 35.7%
AFC Projections
The percentage chance for each AFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 100%
- Tennessee Titans: 59.6%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 38.9%
- Cleveland Browns: 1.1%
- Oakland Raiders: 0.4%
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (12-3)*
2. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
3. New Orleans Saints (11-3)*
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)*
In the Hunt:
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
* = Clinched
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (12-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (10-5)*
5. Buffalo Bills (10-5)*
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-6)
* = Clinched
Updated NFL Playoff Picture: Saturday Evening
The New England Patriots are officially winners of 11 straight AFC East titles — and 17 of the past 19 — with Saturday's victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Not only does the win guarantee Tom Brady and Co. will be no worse than the No. 3 seed, but they're in position to potentially secure a first-round bye as soon as Sunday night if the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Chicago Bears.
The 10-5 Bills, meanwhile, still maintain a significant lead in the AFC wild-card race as the conference's current No. 5 team.
Our Updated NFL Playoff Projections
Below you'll find the percent chance for each team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
AFC Projections
The percentage chance for each AFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 100%
- Tennessee Titans: 62.9%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 35.9%
- Oakland Raiders: 0.4%
- Cleveland Browns: 0.1%
NFC Projections
The percentage chance for each NFC team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 97.2%
- Dallas Cowboys: 68.3%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 31.7%
- Los Angeles Rams: 2.8%
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (12-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (10-5)*
5. Buffalo Bills (10-5)*
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-6)
* = Clinched
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
2. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
3. New Orleans Saints (11-3)*
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
* = Clinched
NFL Playoff Picture: Saturday Afternoon
The Houston Texans are AFC South champions.
Deshaun Watson and Co. held off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-20, to secure the division.
The biggest ripple effect of the result is the Tennessee Titans' playoff hopes. Their only way in is to secure a wild-card berth, and with the Buffalo Bills holding steady as the No. 5 team in the AFC, the Titans will effectively be competing with the Pittsburgh Steelers for that final spot.
The Titans are 2.5-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday before traveling to Houston in Week 17. The Steelers, meanwhile, 3-point road favorites against the New York Jets then finish the season in Baltimore.
Our Updated NFL Playoff Projections
Below you'll find the percent chance for each team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
AFC Projections
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 100%
- Tennessee Titans: 62.9%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 35.9%
- Oakland Raiders: 0.4%
- Cleveland Browns: 0.1%
NFC Projections
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 97.2%
- Dallas Cowboys: 68.3%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 31.7%
- Los Angeles Rams: 2.8%
Updated AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (11-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (10-5)*
5. Buffalo Bills (10-4)*
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-6)
* = Clinched
Updated NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
2. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
3. New Orleans Saints (11-3)*
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
* = Clinched
NFL Playoff Picture: Saturday Morning
Only three divisions are decided and one wild-card spot accounted for heading into Week 16.
So what's at stake on Saturday?
Let's run through the various scenarios, then highlight the current standings followed by our projections for each playoff-bound and -hopeful team.
NFL Playoff Scenarios for Saturday
Texans at Buccaneers
Kickoff at 1 p.m. ET
The Houston Texans could lock up the AFC South with a win in Tampa Bay on Saturday. (They could also do it if the Tennessee Titans lose to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday or if both games end in a tie.)
Even if the Texans lose and the Titans win this week, Houston still has a chance to clinch a playoff berth this week if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the New York Jets on Sunday.
Bills at Patriots
Kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET
It's Week 16 and the New England Patriots aren't yet AFC East champions.
They could clinch the division on Saturday with a win or tie against the Buffalo Bills. They could even secure a first-round bye by the end of Sunday night if they win or tie and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Chicago Bears.
The Bills aren't totally out of the race for the division crown, of course, but it's a very unlikely scenario: They would need to win out and have the Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. Our model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — gives that a 1.5% chance of happening.
Rams at 49ers
Kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Rams are hanging onto their final chance of returning to the playoffs.
Their only hope is to win out — at San Francisco and vs. Arizona — and have the Minnesota Vikings lose out. But considering the Vikings get the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at home to close out the season, it's looking like a narrow path for Sean McVay's squad. Our model gives the Rams only a 1.9% chance of making the postseason.
The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, are vying for the NFC West title and the NFC's No. 1 seed over the final stretch. Both would belong to them if they can win out. Of course, that includes a road trip to Seattle in Week 17, so this race for this division crown could remain very fluid until that face-off.
NFL Playoff Picture & Standings
Below are the standings heading into Week 16.
Note that we've included every team that has yet to by mathematically eliminated, but that the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders have the longest shots — our model currently gives both worse than a 1% chance of making the postseason.
AFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (11-3)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)*
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Buffalo Bills (10-4)*
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
In the Hunt:
7. Tennessee Titans (8-6)
8. Cleveland Browns (6-8)
9. Oakland Raiders (6-8)
* = Clinched
NFC Playoff Picture & Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)*
2. Green Bay Packers (11-3)*
3. New Orleans Saints (11-3)*
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-3)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4)
In the Hunt:
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
* = Clinched
Our NFL Playoff Projections
Below you'll find the percent chance for each team to make the playoffs, according to our simulations. Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are not listed.
AFC Projections
- Baltimore Ravens: 100%
- New England Patriots: 100%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 100%
- Buffalo Bills: 100%
- Houston Texans: 98.8%
- Tennessee Titans: 62.4%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 37.5%
- Cleveland Browns: 0.8%
- Oakland Raiders: 0.5%
NFC Projections
- New Orleans Saints: 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 100%
- San Francisco 49ers: 100%
- Green Bay Packers: 100%
- Minnesota Vikings: 98.1%
- Dallas Cowboys: 66.6%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 33.4%
- Los Angeles Rams: 1.9%
