The penultimate NFL weekend of the 2023 regular season is upon us, and NFL playoff scenarios are on the top of everyone's mind. So let's break down the NFL playoff clinching scenarios for Week 17 and the odds of those scenarios playing out.
So far, seven teams are locked into the 2023 NFL playoffs: the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC, joined by the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins in the AFC.
The Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks could all clinch their own playoff berths in Week 17. Here's everything you need to know about NFL playoff scenarios and the teams that can clinch in Week 17.
NFL Playoffs Picture: Playoff Clinching Scenarios for Week 17, Odds
Buffalo Bills Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Buffalo is currently -1200 to make the postseason.
The Bills have quite the list of potential ways to clinch a playoff berth. The Bills clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Patriots in Week 17 and:
A Steelers loss or tie and …
- A Bengals loss or tie OR
- A Jaguars loss or tie OR
- A Texans loss or tie AND a Colts loss or tie
… OR …
A Bengals loss or tie and …
- A Steelers loss or tie OR
- A Jaguars loss or tie OR
- A Texans loss or tie AND a Colts loss or tie
Those are the most straightforward paths toward Buffalo clinching a playoff spot in Week 17. The Bills can also clinch a playoff berth under a number of scenarios if they tie the Patriots in Week 17, but we'll set those aside for now, convoluted as they are.
The Bills are -950 favorites to beat the Patriots in Week 17, setting up the first leg of their clinching scenario.
The Steelers are +150 underdogs against the Seahawks in Week 17, while the Bengals are +240 underdogs against the Chiefs. A 3-way parlay on the Bills to win, Steelers to lose and Bengals to lose, which would clinch a Buffalo playoff berth, is +131 at FanDuel, or a 43.29% implied probability.
The Jaguars are -210 to beat the Panthers, the Texans are -205 favorites to beat the Titans and the Colts are -198 favorites to beat the Raiders, to complete the Bills' playoff clinching scenario if one of either the Bengals or Steelers wins.
A Bills win, Steelers loss and Jaguars loss is +386 at FanDuel, or a 20.58% implied probability. A Bills win, Steelers loss, Texans loss and Colts loss is +1062, or a 8.61% implied probability.
A Bills win, Bengals loss and Jaguars loss is +341 at FanDuel, or a 22.68% implied probability. A Bills win, Bengals loss, Texans loss and Colts loss is +954, or a 9.49% implied probability.
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | +660 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | -950 |
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Jacksonville is currently off the board as a bet to make the playoffs.
The Jaguars clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 with a Jacksonville win AND a Colts loss AND a Texans loss.
The Jaguars are -210 to beat the Panthers. The Texans are -205 favorites to beat the Titans and the Colts are -198 favorites to beat the Raiders. A 3-way parlay on the Jaguars to win, Texans to lose and Colts to lose, which would clinch a Jacksonville playoff berth, is priced at +951 at FanDuel.
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +176 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Kansas City is currently -8000 to make the postseason.
The Chiefs clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 with a win or tie against the Bengals. The Chiefs can also clinch a playoff berth with a Raiders loss or tie AND a Broncos loss or tie.
The Chiefs are -295 to beat the Bengals.
The Colts are -198 favorites to beat the Raiders, and the Chargers are +156 to beat the Broncos, should the Chiefs lose to Cincinnati. A 2-way parlay on the Raiders to lose and Broncos to lose is +287 at FanDuel, a 25.84% implied probability.
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -295 |
Los Angeles Rams Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Los Angeles is currently -230 to make the postseason.
The Rams clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 with a win against the Giants AND a Seahawks loss against the Steelers. The Rams can also clinch a playoff berth with a win AND a Packers vs Vikings tie.
The Rams are -255 to beat the Giants. The Steelers are +150 underdogs to beat the Seahawks, while a tie in Packers vs Vikings is +7500. A 2-way parlay on the Rams to beat the Giants and Steelers to beat the Seahawks is +248 at FanDuel, while a far, far sillier parlay on the Rams to beat the Giants and Packers and Vikings to tie is +10367 at DraftKings.
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -255 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Seattle is currently -260 to make the postseason.
The Seahawks clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 with a win against the Steelers AND a Packers vs Vikings tie.
The Seahawks are -220 to beat the Steelers. A tie in Packers vs Vikings is +7500. A ridiculous parlay on the Seahawks to beat the Steelers and Packers and Vikings to tie is +11458 at DraftKings.
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | +184 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | -220 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Tampa Bay is currently -650 to make the postseason.
The Buccaneers clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 with a win against the Saints or tie AND a Falcons loss to the Bears.
The Bucs are -138 to beat the Saints. The Falcons are +128 underdogs to the Bears. A 2-way parlay on the Bucs to beat the Saints and the Bears to beat the Falcons is +185 at FanDuel.
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -104 | 37.5 -115o / -105u | +128 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 37.5 -115o / -105u | -152 |
Other Noteworthy NFL Playoff Scenarios in Week 17
The Baltimore Ravens clinch the 1-seed in the AFC with a win against the Dolphins. The Ravens are -172 favorites to beat the Dolphins in Week 17. The Ravens are -360 to be the 1-seed in the AFC.
The San Francisco 49ers clinch the 1-seed in the NFC with a win AND a Lions loss AND an Eagles loss. The 49ers are -950 favorites to beat the Commanders in Week 17. The Lions are +215 underdogs to the Cowboys. The Eagles are -670 favorites over the Cardinals. A 3-way parlay on the 49ers to win, Lions to lose and Eagles to lose is +802 at FanDuel. The 49ers are -430 to be the 1-seed in the NFC.
All playoff clinching scenarios via Action Network research.
