The NFL Divisional Round is the best weekend in football, and Sunday gives us our two best matchups.
The Eagles and Rams have both represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in recent years, with Jalen Hurts outplaying Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford winning the whole thing. Then it's over to the AFC for what many call the game of the year between the two MVP favorites: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
It should be an awesome day of football — though these games could end up mirroring each other in some important ways, with cold, outdoor football going the way of power-rushing attacks.
Let's get to the NFL picks for the Divisional Round on Sunday.
NFL Predictions: Sunday Divisional Round Picks
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Rams vs. Eagles
Rams vs Eagles Preview
Bettors and the market continue to be a bit too high on the Rams, who aren't consistent enough to get this much respect. L.A. looked good on Monday night, but that felt more about the Vikings offense falling apart in a key spot, and the Rams offense wasn't really all that great anyway.
You can argue about which offense is better in this matchup, but the defense is a massive mismatch. Philadelphia has the league's best defense, no matter how you slice it. It was No. 1 by DVOA for the season and has been even better since the bye, while the Rams defense ranked 26th.
But the Rams defense is improving! Just look at that game against the Vikings!!
Yes, L.A.'s defense played better down the stretch, buoyed by a couple of choice matchups and some games against already eliminated teams missing key players, but this is a disaster matchup. The Rams were great against the Vikings because their young defensive line dominated, thanks to a speed rush that had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts all night.
The Rams defense is speedy but small. That was the right matchup against Minnesota's outmatched offensive line, but they struggled all season against power-rushing attacks, and it's not going to work against Philadelphia's beefy offensive line, the best in the league.
The Eagles beat the Rams 37-20 in November in a game that Philadelphia ran all over L.A. The Eagles ran 45 times for 314 yards and three scores. They had scoring drives of eight, 10, 10, 12 and 12 plays, controlling the clock and racking up 480 yards to just 290 for L.A.
Saquon Barkley had his best game of the season with 26 carries for 255 yards, averaging a ridiculous 7.3 yards before contact. That's not just Barkley — that's a dominating offensive line win.
It was the same story last year, just without Barkley. The Eagles won 23-14 in L.A. with 38 minutes of possession, racking up a huge 454-to-249 yardage advantage. Philadelphia ran 39 times in that game, too.
The Rams have a bottom-10 defense on early downs, so Philadelphia should be able to run the ball and stay ahead of the chains all game — especially if this ends up cold and snowy as expected, bending the game toward the run even further.
The Rams played six games this season against top-10 rushing attacks by DVOA. They went 2-4 and allowed 28.2 PPG, including five of their top six points allowed on the season. L.A. allowed at least 24 points in all but one of those games versus 24 or fewer in all but one of the 12 others.
L.A. did win two of those games, but one of them was over an Arizona squad missing its power runner in James Conner, and the other was a 44-42 shootout over Buffalo when this offense played essentially perfect football. Nevertheless, the defense was repeatedly mauled, allowing 175 rushing yards a game.
Stafford and the Rams are capable of hitting high highs when everything is clicking, but that will be pretty tough to pull off against this excellent Eagles defense. Vic Fangio's unit excels at eliminating deep balls and the middle of the field, forcing the Rams to grind out drives and matriculate the ball down the field with mistake-free football. That's just not Stafford's game.
Rams vs Eagles Spread Analysis
Eagles -6 (-110)
The Rams are up against things in this matchup, and the results have been clear. These teams played each of the last two seasons, and the Eagles won by nine and 17 points, both times in L.A. — so what is this line under a touchdown in Philadelphia?
If this one is close late, then the Rams are live. I don't trust Jalen Hurts much right now as a passer, and you'd have to like Stafford's chances against Hurts late. But I don't see many paths for L.A. to keep this close, especially if winter weather pushes things toward running the ball and defense — Eagles football.
I think the Eagles win, and it's my most confident side of the weekend. That makes this an excellent teaser spot, with the line basically teasing this down to a pick'em. Underdog winners in the Wild Card Round, such as the Rams, came into the weekend just 1-20 straight up since 2012 in the following game.
I'll play Eagles -6, though we probably shouldn't get too overconfident in a cover since so many trends tell us to be careful backing home favorites in the Divisional Round. Still, I make this Eagles -8, so that's a very valuable couple of points across an important key number.
If you want a Philadelphia escalator, I prefer an Eagles team total escalator in case the Rams score or come through the back door.
Philadelphia has scored at least 26 points in eight of 14 games since its bye, so just the traditional over 25.5 works if you prefer that to Eagles -6. Philadelphia has also scored 33 points five times this season and 37 points three times, including against the Rams.
Let's go with the Eagles over 27.5 points at +170 and over 34.5 points at +500 (both at DraftKings).
Picks: Eagles -6 (-110; DraftKings) | Eagles Team Total escalator: Over 27.5 points (+170; DraftKings); Over 34.5 points (+500; DraftKings)
Rams vs Eagles Prop Picks
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115) + Rush TDs in Playoffs
If you're following the script, it should be pretty obvious you want Eagles rushing overs. The problem is they're already juiced to the high heavens.
I project Saquon Barkley at around 22-to-26 rushing attempts for 106-to-143 yards. That sounds pretty great until you see his lines posted all the way up at 21.5 attempts and 113.5 yards. No thanks.
Jalen Hurts rushing attempts sound good, too, until you see the line at 9.5. He's got the Tush Push and was also dangerous as a scrambler in the past matchups.
If Hurts is moving well on the ground and the Eagles are scoring, then there's a good chance Hurts finds the end zone as a runner, so let's play an Anytime Touchdown at -115 (FanDuel).
Josh Allen had three rushing TDs against this Rams defense a month ago, so the profile fits for a scramble or one of those easy Tush Push TDs.
Hurts has rushed for 14 touchdowns in his last 15 games, throwing out one game he barely played. He scored at least once in 10 of the 15 and now has an Anytime TD in 29 of his last 43 games. That's a 67% hit rate, the same as this season, and that should imply odds of around -200, not -115.
I don't see much margin on two touchdowns at +600, but we can take a tiny nibble at three at +3300 (FanDuel) if he matches Allen.
If you like the Hurts angle and like the Eagles going forward, the better escalator may be a futures play. The Eagles would have a nice matchup in the NFC Championship against the worst defense left in the playoffs, and Hurts had five rushing TDs in three games the year of Philly's Super Bowl run.
Hurts is +650 to rush for three TDs in the playoffs and +1900 for four (both FanDuel). He's also +1500 to lead the playoffs in rushing TDs. I don't like that one as much since I'm high on the Ravens, so I'll play four TDs for +1900, but pick your favorite option and invest.
Picks: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115; FanDuel) | Hurts 4+ rushing TDs in playoffs (+1900; FanDuel)
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Ravens vs. Bills
Ravens vs Bills Preview
I already grabbed Ravens +2 on the Hot Read and said they'd close favorites — they were favored by the next morning. The line is probably about right now by power rating, but I still love this matchup for Baltimore.
The Bills offense has been really, really great this season, better than just about any team in the league — except the Ravens. Baltimore's offense is superior, both running and passing. Its defense is better, too. It has been up to No. 2 by DVOA since Week 9, while the Bills struggled to get off the field against Bo Nix.
Baltimore runs the ball better. It defends the run better. It defends the pass way better. The coaching is better and more reliable, with more edges. Even the much-maligned special teams are better by DVOA than Buffalo's poor unit.
Baltimore is the superior team across the board, and this is a matchup problem for Buffalo similar to the one the Rams will face against the Eagles. This is another cold-weather game that should trend toward the run, and the run fits are all wrong for Buffalo.
The Bills prefer to run inside and have had good success there against smaller teams, like the Rams, but Baltimore's run defense is especially good against the run inside. Meanwhile, Buffalo's speedy defense has been terrific at containing the run outside but not great up the middle against power-rushing attacks, where Baltimore is at its best.
The Bills defense is vulnerable over the middle of the field by design, and even though LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are back after missing the first matchup, they're more helpful defending the pass than the run. This is where Buffalo's drop-off at linebacker and safety has hurt them.
Explosive plays could also be a problem for Buffalo. Baltimore had more explosive plays — plays of 10+ yards — than any offense at 25%, the best mark in the league, while Buffalo's defense allowed an explosive play on 24% of its plays, the most in the NFL.
The first matchup between these teams played out exactly that way, with Derrick Henry taking the first Baltimore offensive play to the house for 87 yards and rumbling for nearly 200 yards in a 35-10 win. Baltimore finished with 14 explosive plays to just four for Buffalo. Giving up chunk plays throughout the game is a great way to lose quickly.
The Bills had one of the softer schedules in the league this season and are still just 3-3 against teams that made the playoffs, even counting last week.
Buffalo's defense allowed 30 PPG in six games against top-12 offenses by DVOA, and the defense was even worse against top rushing attacks. In five games against top-11 running teams by DVOA, the Bills allowed 20, 28, 35, 42 and 44 points. The last four were the highest point totals allowed by Buffalo this season, including three high-scoring shootouts and the blowout loss in Baltimore.
The Bills defense also ranked bottom 10 in the first half by DVOA, setting up a script for the Ravens to do what they usually do under John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson — get up early, run the football and control the game.
Ravens vs Bills Spread Analysis
Ravens -1 (-110)
Everyone wants to make this the MVP narrative game. That makes sense with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson facing off, but I think the storytellers have this entirely backward.
Baltimore will win, but the Ravens won't win because they have the MVP — the Ravens will win because they don't.
The Ravens had nine Pro Bowlers this season. Baltimore is loaded, up and down the roster. Derrick Henry is one of the greatest runners of this generation, and he runs behind a Pro Bowl fullback and center across from a Pro Bowl receiver. The defense has Pro Bowlers at every level, too — defensive tackle, linebacker, corner and safety.
Baltimore is absolutely loaded. Do you know how many Pro Bowlers the Bills have?
Two.
The Bills have two Pro Bowlers, just Allen and LT Dion Dawkins. They only had two Pro Bowlers last season, too.
Allen is the MVP because he has to do so much more for a significantly worse roster, carrying a lack of offensive weapons and defensive talent to 13-4 and the AFC 2-seed. That's great in the regular season and against most of the NFL, but there's a reason only one MVP this century won the Super Bowl.
Individuals win MVP. Teams win Super Bowls.
Baltimore will win this game, not because Jackson outduels Allen, but because the Ravens are the better team. They run better, block better, defend better, coach better.
If Baltimore does lose this game, it will almost certainly be because Allen drastically outplays Jackson since that's one of the few edges Buffalo can really find in this game.
I'm on Ravens -1, but the truth is that I don't want to bet on Baltimore winning a close game. If this is close late, I'm not going to love having my money on the Ravens, down Zay Flowers, with Jackson against Allen late. I would trust Allen more in that biggest moment.
But I also don't think the Bills will be close enough for that to matter. The Ravens went 8-3 against playoff teams this season, with all eight wins by at least seven points.
Baltimore isn't just beating opponents. It's dominating them.
Give me Ravens -6.5 at +215 (FanDuel), and I don't mind if you bet that just as aggressively as Baltimore -1. If you like the Ravens, you should like them more against a higher line, winning convincingly with great defense and a rushing attack that simply runs the clock out, as it did in the first matchup.
For a further escalator, you can play Baltimore's team total over 34.5 points at +390 (DraftKings). The Ravens already did that seven times this season — including against Buffalo last time.
Picks: Ravens -1 (-110; BetMGM) | Ravens -6.5 (+215; FanDuel) | Ravens over 34.5 points (+390; DraftKings)
Ravens vs Bills Prop Picks
Justice Hill over 20.5 yards and Anytime TD (+800)
We've been playing Derrick Henry props all season long in Ravens wins.
If you like Baltimore, I don't mind if you do that here. Henry has 100 rushing yards and two scores in over a quarter of his wins lifetime. You can bet that — 100+ yards, 2+ TDs, and a Ravens win — at +480 (DraftKings) if you like.
I'm actually playing the other Ravens RB: Justice Hill.
The Bills allowed more receptions and receiving yards to opposing RBs than any team this season, giving up 42 YPG. This heavy zone defense sacrifices short and middle of the field by design.
Hill had his best receiving game of the season against the Bills in the first matchup, with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown, and what's remarkable is he didn't even play much. His 20 snaps were among his lowest snap count of the season — you don't exactly need a passing back on the field much when you're rolling to a 35-10 win. He did all that damage in just 20 snaps.
Hill's touches have been valuable all season. He had at least three catches eight times, and he scored a TD in four of those eight and averaged 42 YPG in those games.
Betting Hill is also a good way to cover a potentially negative Baltimore game script since he'd likely be on the field more if the Ravens are trailing and forced to pass. Hill had four or more catches six times this season, three of the six in Ravens losses.
Take Hill over 20.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365), a number he nearly quadrupled last time against the Bills. You can play something like 40+ yards if you like, but I prefer a slightly different escalator since Hill tends to score when he gets good touches.
Give me over 20.5 yards with an Anytime TD at +800 (DraftKings).
Picks: Justice Hill Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365) | Hill over 20.5 yards & Anytime TD SGP (+800; DraftKings)
