Our staff is focused on four Sunday games for its NFL predictions against the spread in Week 14.
Our experts' four bets are backing three favorites and the biggest underdog of the week. We have two experts betting the Jets vs. Dolphins spread, as well as picks on Falcons vs. Vikings, Panthers vs. Eagles and Bills vs. Rams in the 4:25 p.m. ET window.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL predictions for this weekend's Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions Against the Spread
- Jets vs. Dolphins: Dolphins -5.5
- Falcons vs. Vikings: Vikings -0.5 (-102)
- Panthers vs. Eagles: Panthers +13.5 (-110)
- Bills vs. Rams: Bills -3.5 (-110)
Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Jets vs. Dolphins
Dolphins -5.5 (-110)
By Simon Hunter
Another week, another instance of professional bettors moving the Jets spread in our favor. They're truly nice guys.
You have to be a real sicko to still be betting the Jets at this point. Aaron Rodgers looks like a guy in his 40s who's coming off a torn Achilles. We get flashes of vintage Rodgers moments, but those are followed by consecutive drives of three-and-out and inefficiency.
Rodgers has been especially bad on the road this season. Of the 33 quarterbacks that have played at least 200 snaps since Week 4, Rodgers is 31st in EPA/play, 31st in success rate 31st in CPOE and 26th in aDOT.
On the other side, Tua Tagovailoa has played like a top-five quarterback since coming back from his latest concussion. We’ve seen in his career that he’s at his best against terrible teams at home. Tagovailoa is 22-8 straight-up (SU) and 19-11 against the spread (ATS) against teams below .500 in his career, including a 14-7 ATS mark at home.
This line has moved from Dolphins -7 past two key numbers down to -5.5 as of Friday night. Teams that have gotten steam from the opening to closing lines are 84-91-3 ATS this season, and the two worst teams in that spot are the Giants and Jets, both of which are 0-5 ATS in that situation.
You have to take Dolphins -5.5 here. It’s a great spot for them, and we’re getting a strong number with this line movement. Shop around in case this moves back up by Sunday and be sure to get the 5.5.
Pick: Dolphins -5.5 (-110)
Dolphins -5.5 (-110)
The Jets' defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play on the season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL, but that's the most deceiving metric I've come across this season. New York has a ranking of 17th on the defensive end according to DVOA, and their rush defense now ranks 23rd in the same category.
Since Tua Tagovailoa has returned to the Miami offense, the huge chunk gains we're used to seeing from this offense haven't been there, but the rate at which their offensive plays gain 10 or more yards is the second highest in the NFL at 24%. The Dolphins offense has changed, but it's still rather efficient.
Here, Miami has a great matchup against a Jets pass defense that will be without Sauce Gardner, who's listed as doubtful. Gardner is the 14th-ranked cornerback in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade this season, so this is a massive loss for a reeling secondary.
Since Robert Saleh was fired, this defense has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, ranking them 27th in that span. The New York defense plays man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and the entire scheme will have to change without Gardner.
The Jets offense has generated more than 20 points just four times since Sept. 19. New York also will be shorthanded with RB Breece Hall listed as doubtful.
The Jets have covered on the road only once all season, and there's little reason to believe they'll reverse this trend on Sunday.
Pick: Dolphins -5.5 (-110)
Falcons vs. Vikings
Vikings 1Q -0.5 (-105)
I don't mind the first-half or full-game spread backing Minnesota, but I prefer focusing on the 1st quarter. Minnesota has had some games get tight down the stretch recently, so I'd rather avoid any late-game shenanigans.
I'd prefer to get Vikings -1.5 at plus money in the first quarter since they've been a prolific team in the opening 15 minutes this season. There are -0.5 lines on the board at close to even money, but I don't see much of a difference between those and would prefer -1.5 at a better price.
There are a few scenarios in the first quarter that see the Vikings win by only one point. That would require multiple Falcons field goals, which there's probably not enough time for, or a missed extra point. I'll do my best to grab Vikings 1Q -1.5 but would play -0.5 if I have to — and it looks like that will be the case as of Friday night.
Pick: Vikings 1Q -0.5 (-105)
Panthers vs. Eagles
Panthers +13.5 (-110)
Since the beginning of the 2023 regular season, there have only been 12 road underdogs of more than 13 points in the NFL. Those underdogs are 8-4 (66%) ATS over that small sample size. Since the beginning of 2017, teams in this situation are 59.2% against the number in more than 70 such games.
The Eagles are coming off a massive win in Baltimore last week and host their in-state rival Steelers next week in a matchup of division leaders. This feels like the perfect spot to overlook a Carolina team that's playing much better of late.
Looking at the season-long metrics will undoubtedly paint the picture of a mismatch between these two teams, but improvements are both sides of the ball for the Panthers should allow them to keep this game within two scores.
The Panthers defense limited Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to a 17% conversion rate on third downs last week, while the offense continues to look considerably more competent. Dealing with pressure from an Eagles defense boasting the highest sack rate since their Week 5 bye will be paramount for Bryce Young, and he's made great strides there. Young was pressured on 22 of his 46 attempts last week against Tampa Bay, but he was sacked just once and averaged more than seven yards per attempt on those dropbacks.
I like Carolina to hang around for longer than most expect, and it's more than capable of stealing a backdoor cover late in the game as Philadelphia focuses on getting out of this game healthy.
I'd play the Panthers at +13 or higher, but we might even be able to grab 14 by the time this game kicks off on Sunday.
Pick: Panthers +13.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Rams
Bills -3.5 (-110)
By Sam Farley
The Bills have already won the AFC East, but they're one game behind the Chiefs in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That feels very attainable for Buffalo with Kansas City overachieving all season and the Bills starting to play some of their best football. It will no doubt be a priority for Buffalo to avoid a trip to Kansas City as it looks to return to the Super Bowl.
The Rams can still win the NFC West and can't afford many more slip-ups, but Josh Allen is playing at the peak of his powers right now with the Bills ranked second in offensive DVOA and seventh on defense. Los Angeles is 5-7 ATS this season and should come unstuck here against a Bills offense that has scored 30 or more points in six straight games.
I'm backing Buffalo here for a statement win in the nationally televised game at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Pick: Bills -3.5 (-110)
