After the higher seed convincingly prevailed on Saturday, we have three more NFL Wild Card Round games on Sunday.
I have NFL predictions and picks for every game, including two long-shot player props for anytime touchdown scorers.
Let's break it down. Let's get that shmoney!
NFL Predictions: Wild Card Sunday
  |   |   |
Broncos vs. Bills
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Bo Nix will make his first playoff start against a Bills defense that plays zone coverage at a top-five rate and two-high coverage shells at a top-five rate. Nix has been less efficient and more turnover-prone against both of those schemes relative to the alternative.]
- Nix vs zone: 6.7 yards per attempt (31st), 0.002 EPA per dropback (24th), 44.4% Success Rate (25th), 3.0% touchdown rate (23rd), 2.6% interception rate (24th)
- Nix vs man: 6.6 YPA (23rd), 0.046 EPA/DB (22nd), 44.7% SR 24th, (7.6%) TD% 10th, 1.5% INT% (14th)
- Nix vs 2-high: 6.4 YPA (33rd), -0.018 EPA/DB (25th), 45.1% SR (27th), 4.5% TD% (7th), 3.3% INT% (32nd)
- Nix vs. 1-high: 7.2 YPA (23rd), 0.087 EPA (19th), 44.7% SR (31st), 4.1% TD% (16th), 1.4% INT% (8th)
Typically we’d see a coach like Sean Payton lean on the run in a spot like this, but Broncos are seventh in pass rate over expectation (+0.4%, per NFLElo), so that’s no guarantee. Denver’s run game has been better since giving Jallel McLaughlin and Audric Estime most of the carries while relegating Javonte Williams to a passing-down specialist, but the Bills have been strong against the run, clocking in at No. 8 in run-defense DVOA.
Payton does need to manage Nix to some extent as a rookie quarterback on the road in his first playoff start, but has a number of options at his disposal beyond the traditional run game, such as use a combination of the underneath passing game, Nix’s legs, and Marvin Mims jr. gadgetry.
The Bills scheme and personnel tend to funnel targets away from wide receivers and more toward backs and tight ends. The linebackers have all graded out extremely poorly in coverage at PFF: Dorian Williams (40.4) is 77th of 82 qualifiers, Terrel Bernard (36.8) is 79th, and Matt Milano (40.4) doesn’t look like his old self since returning from injury. Safeties Damar Hamlin (54.0, 76th of 97) and Taylor Rapp (45.1, 89th) have been shaky, as well.
Among the wide receivers, Mims and Courtland Sutton will likely still be heavily involved, and Devaughn Vele has been the zone-beater out of the slot. Troy Franklin Jr. has better splits versus man coverage.
The Broncos are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and first in run-defense DVOA, though they have struggled against top offenses like the Bengals (30 points allowed) and Ravens (41). Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph deploys man coverage at the highest rate and blitzes the seventh-most, though the Broncos are also second in non-blitz pressure rate.
Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen’s passing splits are strong against every type of scheme and pressure and not worth diving deeply into. We’ve seen him up his rushing volume in the playoffs, and he will get opportunities to scramble against Denver’s man coverage.
Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper are the Bills best man beaters, but with Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss on the outside, the Bills best matchup is with either Kincaid or Khalil Shakir against slot corner Ja’Quon McMillan, whose 793 yards allowed in coverage is fourth-most among corners.
This could also be a spot where they use the speed of Ty Johnson and James Cook in the passing game against Denver linebackers Cody Barton and Justin Strand a la the Lions game. The Broncos are strong on inside runs, so this matchup favors Cook and Ty Johnson more than Ray Davis as rushers.
With that said, the Bills offense versus the Broncos defense feels like one of the most unpredictable matchups of the playoffs as far as game plan. The Bills are likely to use new wrinkles, and Joe Brady’s Stefon Diggs-less “Everybody Eats” offensive philosophy makes them unpredictable. Maybe they’ll dust off Amari Cooper again. Or bench him in favor of Curtis Samuel. Vance Joseph also may switch things up. His defense stymied Allen in a 24-22 Bronco upset last season. Allen was 15-of-26 for 177 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT.
One overlooked aspect of Allen’s game this year has been his ability to avoid sacks. He posted a career-low 2.8% sack rate and took just 14 sacks all season, second-fewest. He has been sacked more than twice in a game only once. I bet the Broncos to get under 2.5 sacks, but I only see it available at 1.5 now. Allen has been sacked one or fewer times in 12-of-16 games not including Week 18, but that’s still dicey against the top pressure defense.
Payton is 57-40-2 (59%) ATS as a ‘dog, including 4-1 in the playoffs. Postseason ‘dogs seeded three or more spots below the favorite are 55-41-3 (57%) ATS in the first half since 2005, and I could see the Broncos hanging around in the first half before Allen’s greatness and some halftime adjustments allow the Bills to pull away late.
It’s worth noting this game is a Luck Under, which have absolutely crushed in the playoffs, but I think this game has more edges in the prop market that don’t involve betting on Josh Allen not to score. The over is 7-3 in Allen’s playoff starts, going over by 4.4 points per game.
Michael Burton Anytime TD Scorer (+2500)
When it comes to skill-player usage, Sean Payton is like an NBA coach who always uses a full 12-man rotation, which gives us a reliable source of cheap dart throws.
With 17 touches in 17 games, Burton is essentially his 12th man, but because those touches are goal-line/short-yardage, he has underrated TD odds. Burton has scored two TDs (one rushing, one receiving) over the past five weeks, and got stopped just short of a potential third. He has four carries inside the 5-yard line and two targets inside the 10, all of which have come in Week 9-on.
The Bills are excellent at stuffing traditional halfback runs inside the 2 (just 3 TDs allowed on 27 carries) but are prone to giving up short-range scores in pretty much every other manner: They’ve allowed a WR rushing TD, an offensive lineman receiving TD, and the second-most receiving TDs to RBs, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a Burton fullback dive or play-action leak out into the flat added to the list. I’m projecting his TD odds at just under 6%.
Note that if you’re also betting first/last TD markets, Burton is more likely to score first. If he scores last it likely means the Broncos are leading or the game is close, so that would be something to parlay with a Broncos spread or ML pick.
Bet to: +1650
| | |
Packers vs. Eagles
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Both of these teams spam the run, so this could be a game with limited play volume that favors unders from both a game and prop perspective. That’s especially true for the first-half under. The Eagles average 3.6 points in the first quarter (21st), 12.4 in the first half (13th), and 14.8 in the second half (fourth). The Packers have been better in the first half (13.6 PPG, sixth), but the Eagles defense has been even better (8.9 PPG allowed, fourth). Both teams rank top-10 in first-half time of possession (PHI 32:22, first; GB 30:35, 10th), which means these offenses will collectively spend less time possessing the ball than is typical.
With Jalen Hurts returning from concussion protocol and A.J. Brown nursing a knee injury, it’s hard to picture the Eagles deviating from their customary high-volume rushing attack after they prohibited Saquon Barkley from chasing Erik Dickerson's all-time rushing record in an otherwise meaningless Week 18 tilt. Green Bay is seventh in run-defense DVOA – at least six spots too low to contend with Barkley, who went 24-109-2 on the ground and 2-23-1 through the air when these teams met in Week 1.
Packers CB1/figment of our imagination Jaire Alexander is done for the year. The Packers passer rating allowed goes from 77.5 with Alexander on the field, the passer rating is 77.5, to 95.3 with him off. This means the Packers will likely have to prioritize bracketing Brown, which along with Green Bay’s top-two zone coverage rate (67.0%) sets the Eagles pass offense up for a DeVonta Smith game. Brown has dominated man coverage with 478 yards to Smith’s 227 in 13 games for each receiver, but Brown has only a 556-511 edge over Smith versus zone (translation: it’s always a Brown game).
Despite Christian Watson (ACL) catching only 29 passes for the Packers, the third-year pro is a big loss for the Packers offense. He was their explosive element, averaging 21.4 yards per catch, and it’s extremely tough to sustain drives without chunk plays against an Eagles defense that ranks first in DVOA against the pass, 39.5% better than league-average.
There is also the fact that Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio dials up man coverage at a top-three rate, and Watson is by far Love’s top option versus man coverage. Watson’s 3.38 YPRR against man ranks sixth of 105 qualified wide receivers. Romeo Doubs (1.65, 53rd) becomes their best option, while Jayden Reed (0.93, 95th) and Dontayvion Wicks (0.75, 102nd) have been among the league’s worst. Tucker Kraft (0.96) is 22nd among tight ends.
Love has largely eliminated negative plays – his 3.2% sack rate is third-lowest, and he has not thrown a pick in his last seven games after throwing 11 in his first eight – but the Packers are almost certainly only going as far as Josh Jacobs can take them. And even that will be no easy task, as Philly ranks second in DVOA against the run.
Per our Action Labs data, Matt LaFleur is 24-12-1 (66.7%) as a dog, covering by 4.1 points per game, including 2-1 in the postseason.
Malik Heath Anytime TD Scorer (+1900)
Bo Melton is the favorite to become the WR4 with Watson out, but the market is still to low on Heath, who ran 30 routes to Melton’s 24 in Watson’s other two missed games (and had a 23-15 edge last week, though I’d chalk that up more to Week 18 shenanigans).
Heath has scored in two of his last five active games and caught a TD on 12% of his career catches. The market will shy away because the Eagles top three corners have been dominant against wide receivers, but that doesn't affect Heath as much because he does his best work in garbage time and against the opposition’s worst defenders. Fifty-six percent of Heath’s career receiving yardage and all three of his career scores have come in the fourth quarter.
Bet to: +1100
| | |
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Brian Robinson Jr. Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Brian Robinson Jr. has been held to 40 yards or fewer in 5-of-9 games with Austin Ekeler active while posting 60-plus yards in 4-of-5 with Ekeler out.
Not only is the matchup against the Bucs daunting – Tampa Bay has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry since Week 10 – but it also favors Ekeler’s perimeter-oriented skill set over Robinson’s inside power thanks to DT Vita Vea clogging the middle and playing elite run defense. When these teams met in Week 1, B-Rob had just 40 yards on 12 carries with a long of 7.
In a win-or-go-home scenario, I don’t think the Commanders coaching staff will have any issue with maximizing the designed rush attempts for Jayden Daniels, either. Daniels led Washington with 16 carries for 88 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting.
Robinson has since dealt with a rash of knee and hamstring injuries that caused him to miss three full games and parts of others. He hasn’t passed the eye test for months, and the numbers back that up: In Weeks 1-11, Robinson averaged 3.54 yards after contact, eighth among 62 qualified running backs. Since Week 12, Robinson is averaging just 2.24 yards after contact, 59th of 60 qualifiers over that span.
Bet to: 42.5
| | |
