We close NFL Week 3 with not one, but two Monday Night Football games. And we have you covered with NFL predictions for Commanders vs. Bengals now that the first game is started.
In just a few minutes, the WashingtonCommanders (1-1) face the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Jaguars and Bengals are in desperate need of a win, as it is almost impossible to turn an 0-3 start into a playoff berth.
The Bengals are 7.5-point favorites over the Commanders (Bengals -7.5), with the over/under in that game now down to 46.
We have two quality QBs in this second game of the doubleheader. Jayden Daniels looks to impress against fellow LSU alum Joe Burrow. Let's get to our expert NFL picks for tonight.
NFL Predictions for Bengals vs. Commanders on Monday Night Football
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Spread
Tee Higgins is poised to make his season debut, which means the Bengals will finally have their full complement of playmakers on offense. This is the perfect matchup for that since Washington's defense ranks 32nd — dead last — in success rate against the pass, points per drive allowed and third-down defense.
Jayden Daniels showed some great potential in Week 2 when the Commanders beat the Giants, but veteran Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will be ready for him. His defense has allowed just one play of 20 or more yards this season, which means Daniels will have to be methodical and patient. That will be a hard ask on this stage.
Looking for a trend? Well, Joe Burrow has played in six NFL games after losing two in a row. The Bengals are 5-0-1 against the spread in those. The former No. 1 overall pick has also covered in 71% of games coming off a loss.
I'm expecting Cincinnati to be in full control and win by double digits at home in the final game of Week 3.
Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-115, bet365)
Over/Under
By Stuckey
I think this total is a bit too low given some of the issues with both defenses.
I also expect Cincinnati to come out with a pass-heavy game plan to exploit its distinct advantages on the outside. And it really looked like Burrow started to get into rhythm last week in Kansas City.
On the other side, Washington should have sustained success on the ground and will, in all likelihood, have to eventually pick up the pace in a trailing game state.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110, bet365)
Player Prop
By Nick Giffen
I'm using our NFL Luck Rankings to make this pick.
The Bengals are the more unlucky team entering this game, and they're favored. That means Cincinnati is more likely to cover and win the game, so it's more likely they run the ball more than usual.
The Bengals' Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) is 9.4% this year compared to 5.6% last year. What does that mean? The Bengals are throwing the ball more than expected, which makes sense since they trailed the Patriots for most of their Week 1 loss and played a tight one against the Chiefs in Week 2.
I'd rather bet on Burrow's completions here because of the matchup. The Commanders defense entered Week 2 ranked last in the NFL against short passes. I'm not convinced that Burrow's wrist is 100% and the difference between his short- and long-passing efficiency is massive.
I expect the Bengals to be more efficient with high-percentage passes on Monday night, which will help them keep the clock running and score points early before leaning on the run late.
Pick: Joe Burrow Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
  | |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Spread
By Billy Ward
One of my favorite things about the Josh Allen/Sean McDermott-era Bills is their willingness to put teams away. They don’t let up even when playing from ahead, continuing to stay aggressive throughout the game.
We saw this last week when they dominated the shorthanded Dolphins 31-10, and it’s been a hallmark of theirs for a few years now.
That makes it much easier to cover a spread like -5, a number that exists between the key numbers of 3 and 7. Teams that don’t keep putting up points could easily give up a “backdoor cover” to an opponent that scored a late touchdown down 10, for example.
Buffalo should hopefully close that door against a mediocre Jacksonville team that’s averaged just 15 points per game this season, and leave us with no doubt down the stretch.
Pick: Bills -5.5 (-110, bet365)
Over/Under
With 12 plays of 20 or more yards, the Jaguars had produced the most explosive plays in the NFL entering Week 2. Trevor Lawrence is trying to get the ball down the field, which makes sense with new receivers Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars defense entered Week 2 ranked 18th in DVOA. It's one of the most aggressive defenses in recent memory, blitzing heavily and playing the most man coverage in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season.
I expect Josh Allen will take advantage of that aggressive Jaguars defense and burn them throughout the game. I'm expecting that will lead to a high-scoring game on Monday night.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110, bet365)
Player Prop
By Matt Trebby
Brian Thomas Jr. has huge potential in the NFL. He’s already gone over this total in his first two NFL games and could have had more than the 94 yards he recorded in Week 1 against the Dolphins if Jalen Ramsey didn’t concede a long pass interference penalty instead of a 40-yard touchdown.
Our own Sean Koerner’s mean projection for Thomas’ receiving yards is 52. This could be a breakout performance for Thomas on Monday Night Football in front of a national audience.
I bet this at 40.5 on Saturday but would play it up to 44.5.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
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