And then there were four, and I have a pick on one of the two games next Sunday.
My NFL prediction is on Bills vs. Chiefs against the spread. In the NFC Championship Game, I don't feel comfortable making a pick yet given the uncertainty surrounding Jalen Hurts. He was nowhere near 100% against the Rams today, but the Eagles won in spite of his inefficiency.
In the AFC Championship game, I see a clear edge and have already picked my side.
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
It always comes down to the Chiefs and Bills, doesn’t it? It couldn’t be any other way, especially for Buffalo.
The truth is that this isn’t the best version of either of these teams that we’ve seen in recent years, but I know enough right now to know that I’m going to be on the Chiefs. I’ve had Buffalo a tier below my top four for a couple of months already, outside the true inner circle, and I thought the Bills got outplayed on Sunday, too. Make the big plays, survive and advance, but that has to shape how we look at the team going forward.
The Chiefs have not had great receivers or blocking this season by their standards, but I prefer both to the Bills. Kansas City has a clearly better defense right now. The Chiefs have a huge special teams advantage. They have the coaching advantage.
What’s left? Buffalo is better running the ball, but is that enough? It’s gotta just be Josh Allen outplaying Patrick Mahomes in the biggest spot, maybe by margin, or it’s gotta be the Chiefs giving a game away with mistakes like Baltimore did, and I can’t count on that.
These defenses are moving in opposite directions, and I don’t trust Buffalo’s. Kansas City had a major swoon midseason but bounced back and was a top-five defense in its final four games before a meaningless Week 18. The run defense is beatable, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo always has a plan. Buffalo’s defense, meanwhile, dropped to a fringe top-10 unit over its final six games and has been leaky when it counts for much of the season.
The Bills have allowed 29.3 points per game to opponents that finished in the top 12 by DVOA. Even giving up 25 points to Baltimore in those conditions, despite three turnovers, is not great. Buffalo’s run defense is beatable up the middle where the Chiefs live, and the Bills are especially poor defending short passes and passes over the middle. That’s where Mahomes lives these days, and I expect him to live there in this one with a barrage of dink-and-dunk passes to Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. That late injury to CB Taron Johnson also looms large for Buffalo's secondary.
In Conference Championships, No. 1 seeds are 20–5 straight up since 2003. The home team wins, and they’re a perfect 8-0 with at least an 11% better regular season win rate like the Chiefs, winning by over 16 points per game.
You may not need to rush to grab this one. It’s hard to imagine it getting to Chiefs -3, and we could see money on the Bills, so you may be able to bet Mahomes as an underdog or at least beat the -120 moneyline available right now.
But when things kick off Sunday, I’ll be on the Chiefs once again.
My Pick: Chiefs -1.5
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
I would’ve loved to bet Philadelphia any number under -7 with a healthy Jalen Hurts, but this game is a no-bet for me with his injury status up in the air and this line in no man’s land at -4.5.
What do we do with the Hurts injury? I expect he’ll play, but we saw how limited he was down the stretch on Sunday, taking most of the snaps out of the pistol and unable to even do the trademark Tush Push.
I’ll downgrade Philly by at least a point even if Hurts plays and a couple more if he doesn’t. But I also had this Eagles by over a touchdown if healthy, so I still end up leaning Philly initially.
The Eagles defense has been elite and mostly untouchable since the bye week, outside of one terrible quarter — but that was against these Commanders, when Philly blew a 27–14 lead and gave up 22 points with an exhausted defense with Hurts out injured. Philly’s defense is the real deal, but defenses can only do so much if they’re on the field all game, especially against a wizard-like Jayden Daniels who can break you at any moment.
Philadelphia dominated Washington in its first matchup this season on a Thursday night, then looked off to the races in a rematch with 21 points in the first quarter before Hurts' injury changed things.
Washington’s defensive metrics improved a lot down the stretch, but I haven’t been impressed in either of its playoff games. The Commanders turned Detroit over but gave up yardage in chunks when on the field. A healthy Eagles team should be able to run all over this defense. Washington has faced a top-10 DVOA offense four times and allowed 33.8 points per game, with at least 30 points in every game.
Of course, the Eagles don’t even qualify for that with Hurts healthy, let alone whatever we’ve got right now.
So far this season, Philadelphia has been an under team, Washington an over team. I lean under here with the Hurts injury, and that makes the points even more valuable on the spread. Washington has been so good late in games, but the Eagles are excellent in second halves too.
Division rematches are always tough this late in the playoffs. We’ve only had four in the last two decades. The favorite is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS, and the games are typically close.
I lean Philly in a close game, but I need to see how Hurts looks in practice and where this line ends up before we can make a decision.
