We close the weekend with my NFL predictions for Ravens vs. Bills.
This juggernaut matchup features two elite teams with a berth in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs on the line. The Ravens are road favorites after the Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites.
Let's get into it and get this shmoney!
Ravens vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Ravens -1.5
- Total: 51.5 (-110 / -110)
- Moneylines: Ravens -120, Bills +100
Odds are as of Saturday night and via our NFL odds page.
NFL Predictions: Ravens vs. Bills
The spread for this game opened Ravens +1.5 and got bet to -1.5. That activates a few key trends for this game.
1) When the line has moved against the Bills with Josh Allen at QB, the Bills are 26-14-2 (65%) ATS, including 2-1 in the postseason.
2) When the line has moved toward the Ravens with Lamar Jackson at QB, the Ravens are 32-28 (53.3%) ATS, 2-2 postseason.
3) These teams had identical point differentials of +157 during the regular season, and the Bills were +24 in the Wild Card Round while the Ravens were +14, which suggests the books are not weighting for strength of schedule, recency, and/or matchup dynamic (Ravens better rush offense and defense in bad weather) nearly as much as the market.
4) The line has moved toward the Ravens in each of their past five games, and they are 5-0 ATS in those contrasts.
5) Typically, whichever team the line moves toward in the postseason is the sharp side, going 99-77-4 (56.2%) ATS since 2004, which favors the Ravens.
One exception to that last one: When a team opens as a favorite of -2.5 or shorter and line moves against them, they are 8-2 (80%) ATS.
I think the Ravens are more likely to win based on how their offense matches up with Buffalo’s defense, and I think the Ravens are the more likely of the two teams to blow out the other based on their historic efficiency, but Buffalo still wins this game probably 45-50% of the time.
The Bills have more unpredictability as far as what they will do personnel-wise on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense, which could be an underrated edge, particularly in a rematch. I think Buffalo could come out super pass-heavy and not even mess around with the Ravens top-ranked run defense, but they could just as well use a sixth offensive lineman – as they do at the highest rate in the league – and go run-heavy.
Flowers is also a much bigger loss for the Ravens in this matchup with his team a slight road favorite in Buffalo than he was last week when they were a large home favorite against Pittsburgh, because if the Ravens fall behind and get into obvious passing situations, Henry becomes less of a factor and Jackson becomes the slightest bit mortal:
- Jackson leading: 9.7 yards per attempt, 71% completion percentage, 133 Rating
- Jackson tied: 9.2 yards per attempt, 71% completion percentage, 119 Rating
- Jackson trailing: 7.7 yards per attempt, 60% completion percentage, 107 Rating
Seven starts into Lamar Jackson postseason career, he still has two more MVP trophies than playoff overs. (To be fair, the over is 0-6 with one push). Granted, Jackson is playing at a higher level than ever before (and would easily be my choice for MVP over Josh Allen), but this is more about style and circumstance. Jackson will be without his No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers (knee), which just increases the number of snaps he will be flanked by heavy personnel.
Since shifting Kyle Hamilton back to safety in Week 11, the Ravens defense is first in EPA per play (-0.129). They ranked just 27th in the first 10 weeks of the season, yet they still managed to hold the Bills to a season-low 10 points in Week 4. And as I alluded to in the game breakdown, if Buffalo builds a lead, the Ravens could also suffer the same fate.
Per Action Labs, postseason outdoor unders are 108-79-5 (58%) since 2003, and the hit rate increases as the total gets larger.
- Under 41+: 92-55-3 (63%)
- Under 44+: 77-45-3 (63%)
- Under 47+: 51-25-2 (67%)
- Under 51+: 20-10-2 (67%)
Bet to: 51
Patrick Ricard Anytime TD Scorer (+3200)
The Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry option game puts a lot of stress on the defense, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Ricard was accidentally left unaccounted for at some point. He has already scored twice this season and is averaging 34.7 snaps per game over the past three, up over 10 from his season average of 25.7%.
Bet to: +2700
