Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For what it's worth, the Texans would've made the cut if not for the uncertainty surrounding wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Houston obviously needs one of those two and probably both to keep up with the Lions, and I assumed both would be good to go earlier in the week.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 10-16-1
- Overall: 47-33-1 (58.8%)
It's time to pick it up in 2024. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 10 picks for Sunday.
NFL Predictions: Week 10
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Bills vs. Colts
On the surface, this is a good spot to fade the Bills. They're coming off a close win at home against the Dolphins for their fourth straight victory to put them four games up in the loss column in the AFC East with a perfect 3-0 record within the division. Buffalo has looked the part of a contender in the AFC, but it only has one win over a team with a winning record this season, which came against the 5-4 Cardinals in Week 1. The other five wins (two wins over Miami) came against teams with a combined 13-30 record. Buffalo also has a huge home game next week against Kansas City for what it's worth.
More importantly, this is a decent matchup for Indianapolis on both sides of the ball.
Last week, I really liked the Vikings due to their blitz-heavy tendencies under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. That spelled bad news for Joe Flacco and the Colts offense. Here, that's not Buffalos' style. While the Vikings have the league's highest blitz rate at nearly 40%, the Bills have the second-lowest at 16.5%.
Indianapolis will also get back the services of starting left tackle Bernhard Raimann. Among 75 tackles with at least 100 pass blocking snaps this season, Raimann ranks ninth in pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus. The Colts did put center Ryan Kelly on IR, but rookie Tanor Bortolini has allowed only one pressure across nearly 100 drop backs.
Wide receiver Michael Pittman is out, which doesn't help, but Flacco should still have enough success to give the Colts a chance.
Meanwhile, the Colts defense isn't elite by any stretch, but it's as healthy as it's been all season. Some of their season-long metrics certainly suffered as a result of a bevy of injuries it dealt with earlier this year.
It's a Gus Bradley defense, so we know we're going to get a static zone-heavy group with heaps of Cover 3. That's exactly what you want to run against Josh Allen and this iteration of the Bills offense, which absolutely shreds man coverage.
Plus, the Bills will also be shorthanded at receiver with Keon Coleman already been ruled out, and there's a good shot Amari Cooper will be out. While Allen may have success finding his tight ends, Khalil Shakir will have to deal with one of the best slot corners in the league in Kenny Moore. I've also been impressed with the emergence of outside cornerback Samuel Womack, who has stepped up after the injury to JuJu Brents.
Down two potential starting wide receivers may also result in Buffalo going with a more run-heavy approach. However, that's exactly where this Colts defense has excelled this season. Despite dealing with a number of injuries up front earlier this season, the Colts rank 8th in Rush EPA this season. It also looks like tackling machine Zaire Franklin will be good to at linebacker after missing practice earlier this week.
Lastly, it's worth mentioning some potential looming negative regression for the Bills. They're a perfect 9-9 on fourth downs this season, while their opponents are 7-of-19. Buffalo also ranks third in the league with a +11 turnover margin. Allen has 17 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, but only a 19-12 Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio. Last year, he had 18 interceptions on 23 Turnover Worthy Plays. His TWP% has also risen this year compared to last.
I'm expecting another close game, which is all Indy seems to play with each of its first eight games all being decided by one possession.
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Falcons vs. Saints
This was my no-brainer situational spot of the week after the Saints lost as a touchdown favorite in Carolina. Home 'dogs of at least a field goal following a straight-up loss as a TD or more favorite have gone 8-3-1 (72.7%) since 2003, covering by 6.6 points per game.
Additionally, the Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen, which I believe should be a net positive. Historically, there's been a one-week bump after firing a coach. A team seems to rally under an interim guy, but there's also usually an element of surprise with the new head man willing to listen to his staff and players on some overdue changes and potential wrinkles. There's also usually a reason that head coach got fired and Allen did nothing but disappoint during his Saints tenure.
This is also the definition of a buy-low, sell-high spot with the Saints on a seven-game losing steak while the Falcons have won two straight to take full control of the NFC South, against which they're 4-0 on the season. At 2-7, the season is essentially over for New Orleans. That makes this becomes a Super Bowl of sorts at home against a division rival that beat it by two earlier this season in a game that saw Atlanta scored two-non offensive touchdowns.
There's a reason the Falcons rank No. 3 in our NFL Luck Rankings thanks to five one-possession wins. Meanwhile, the Saints are dead last in those rankings, making this the Luck Rankings game of the week, which have cashed at a very nice clip historically.
Remember that three of the Saints' seven losses came with Spencer Rattler playing quarterback, and he was essentially unplayable. Three of the other four losses with Carr came by three, two and one points. The other was at Kansas City when Carr got hurt.
New Orleans has also dealt with as many injuries as any team in the league. That's still a major concern this week, but at least Carr is healthy. Throughout his career, he has been a very good quarterback when he doesn't have to deal with pressure. Fortunately, the Falcons generate pressure at the third-lowest rate in the NFL. Who will Carr throw to with all of the Saints' injuries at wide receiver? Someone will have to step up, but he'll at least have time to throw.
The Saints should also have success on the ground with Alvin Kamara and will find ways to get Taysom Hill the ball against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in Rush Success Rate. Expect a ground-heavy attack to set up play-action so Carr can get a clean pocket to work with.
The other major concern for the Saints lies at cornerback where they are decimated by injury (and the recent trade of Marshon Lattimore). That's worrisome against Kirk Cousins, but Drake London could miss this game and might not be close to 100% (hip pointer) if he plays. London being out would provide a huge boost to this Saints secondary since the Falcons have very underwhelming depth at wide receiver.
Lastly, maybe the Saints get some positive fourth down variance to go their way? The Falcons are certainly overdue for those late downs to swing the other way. On the season, Atlanta is 11-of-15 on fourth down (73.3%), while their opponents are 7-of-16 (43.8%). That disparity is critical for a team that has played in — and lost — so many close games.
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Jets vs. Cardinals
The 3-6 Jets are favored at the 5-4 Cardinals, but it makes sense to me.
Arizona has certainly exceeded expectations this season under second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, but it has also enjoyed as much good fortune as any team in the league. The Cardinals two most convincing wins came against the Rams and Bears at home in great situational spots. The Rams were playing their second straight road game after a devastating Week 1 overtime loss in Detroit and were extremely beat up. Meanwhile, Chicago also had to travel across the country for its second straight road game after a heartbreaking loss on a Hail Mary against Washington. The Bears were also down multiple offensive lineman and key defensive starters with a rookie quarterback and head coach who has flopped consistently on the road.
Arizona's other three wins all came in comeback fashion by a grand total of five points thanks to three walk-off field goals. It trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter against San Francisco before the 49ers kicker got hurt. The Dolphins also led by double digits in the second half before a snap over Tua Tagovailoa's head for a safety flipped that game on its head. And against the Chargers, the Cardinals recovered all three key fumbles in the game to keep in close.
Conversely, the Jets have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league with four one-possession losses. They've also had one of the most brutal schedules through nine weeks with five primetime games and a trip overseas without a break. The mini-bye after playing on Thursday night in Week 9should serve them well. Not only did they need the rest, they also should come in much healthier after dealing with an abundance of injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary.
With guards John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker both likely returning, the Jets should have all five starting offensive lineman back after playing with four tackles at one point against the Texans. When healthy, this group has been excellent in pass protection.
As a result, Aaron Rodgers should have all day to throw on a fast track against a defense that can't get pressure and can't cover on the back end. On the season, Arizona has the fourth-lowest blitz rate and sixth-lowest pressure rate. The Cardinals also rank dead last in drop back success rate (52.1%) and sit in the bottom five in Pass EPA. I'm not sure how they slow down Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson.
Meanwhile, the Jets rank No. 1 in the NFL in drop back success rate as the only defense at under 40%. They have the corners to match up in coverage against the Cardinals receivers and should also get starting safety Tony Adams back from injury.
The Cardinals could have some success on the ground with James Connor (and Kyler Murray's legs), but it's going to be tough for Murray to consistently move the chains on clear passing downs since this Jets defense can still get after opposing quarterbacks (top-five ranking in pressure rate) and now Haason Reddick should be closer to full speed in his third game back since ending his holdout.
Give me the desperate and now healthier Jets off the mini-bye on the road in a stadium that isn't known for having the greatest home-field advantage.
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