Our NFL predictions for Week 9 are in.
Two of our NFL experts are on an underdog this week, though one has a contrarian point of view on that exact game. We've got three picks on Giants vs. Commanders, spread picks on two of the week's bigger favorites in the Bills and Eagles, and a look at the total in Chargers vs. Browns.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for Sunday afternoon.
NFL Week 9 Predictions
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John LanFranca's Commanders vs. Giants Best Bet: Following a Juicy Trend
If you know anything about Giants' home games with Daniel Jones under center, you know it is going to be a low-scoring affair. In Jones' career, 25 of 34 games in his home stadium have failed to go over the total. Obviously getting points with the team you're backing in this situation is advantageous given that scoring will be at a premium.
The Giants are coming off of a Monday night loss in which they gained 394 yards against the Steelers defense. I am expecting another solid performance offensively against a Commanders defense ranking 23rd on a yards per play basis. This isn't far-fetched considering when these teams met back in Week 2, New York averaged 6 yards per play against Washington.
If you blindly bet every underdog of more than 3 points in NFL over the last 20 years that was receiving fewer than 20% of the public betting tickets, you would have a positive 4.7% return on investment. For divisional games fitting that trend over the last two decades, you'd have a positive 6% ROI. The Giants are just the fourth underdog of 3.5 points or greater this season receiving fewer than 20% of bets — the other three went 3-0 against the spread.
Pick: Giants +4
Simon Hunter's Commanders vs. Giants Best Bet: Take the Points
By Simon Hunter
Hello darkness my old friend. The Giants are a home dog once again. I know you hate this. But this is a long-term winner.
You can’t buy any lower on the Giants this season — this is rock bottom.
On the other side of the field, this is the most beloved team in D.C. in years. Everybody and their grandma has seen the Hail Mary pass, which is shocking to no one. You want to fade a team after that kind of game, especially based on recent trends. The previous five teams went 1-4 straight up (SU) in their next game after a last-second win, with three of the four losses by 7 points or more.
Daniel Jones is terrible. Hasn’t throw a touchdown pass at MetLife in two years. But he’s good against one team. Jones is 5-2-1 SU, 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in his career against Washington. Compare that to 20-41 SU and 29-32 ATS against the rest of the NFL.
We’ve already seen Jayden Daniels struggle against the Giants defense this season. Now he’s playing hurt and doesn’t have the same velocity on throws 15 yards down field. Join me. Fade the public. Take the points.
Pick: Giants +4
Sam Farley's Commanders vs. Giants Best Bet: A Contrarian Pick
By Sam Farley
Sometimes you look at a spread and it simply doesn't make sense. Yes, Jayden Daniels is still dealing with his rib injury, but he's had another week to get closer to full health. Plus, he displayed last week that even banged up he's still a cheat code.
The Commanders won this game by three points in Week 2, but they've developed hugely since then and should cover here.
Pick: Commanders -3.5
Simon Hunter's Dolphins vs Bills Best Bet: Don't Be Scared of a Big Number
By Simon Hunter
If I love some chalk, it means you know you gotta bet it. Don’t let this big number scare you off — these are the exact spots we back Josh Allen.
At home, as a big favorite, against a bad team. That’s what the Dolphins are. It doesn’t matter if Tua Tagovailoa is back. This just isn’t the same team as last year. Now you add in how Allen has owned Tua is his short career.
Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have faced each other seven times entering this week — Allen is 7-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. It gets even better. In those seven games, Allen has covered the spread by 13.5 PPG. We’ve seen Allen take a massive step this season in taking what the defense gives him. Not forcing the ball to players. I give a lot of that credit to Joe Brady, his offensive coordinator.
Coming into the season, I thought this would be a more run-heavy offense with James Cook being a legit RB 1. Instead they’ve just become more balanced. Miami has struggled all season against great running teams. Also Tagovailoa has been down right bad against teams above 500. When that team is above .500 SU, he is 3-8-1 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS since the beginning of last season.
This is a great spot to back the Bills based on match up and trends. I’d bet this up to -6.5
Pick: Bills -6
John LanFranca's Chargers vs. Browns Best Bet: A Trendy Total Pick
In all games the Chargers have played this season, the average combined total points for both teams has been the fewest in the league, on average, with 31.9 points scored. The Chargers defense is the eighth-best in total defensive DVOA, and is the top defense in the league on a points per drive allowed basis (1.1).
The Cleveland passing game came alive as Jameis Winston entered the lineup, but that was against the 25th-ranked Ravens pass defense, according to DVOA. The Los Angeles defense ranks seventh in the same category. Sure, the Browns and Ravens matchup was a high-scoring affair, but seven of the eight games the Ravens have played in this season have seen the over cash, with the only one going under seeing 45 total points scored. This is all to say, last week had much less to do with the Browns and more to do with the struggling Ravens pass defense.
As for the Chargers offense, Justin Herbert has averaged 35 pass attempts per game over his last three games. I don't expect this to continue on Sunday, as the Browns defense is top in the NFL in pressure rate at 42.7%. The Browns also play the third-most man coverage league-wide. Herbert's completion percentage tanks against man when looking at his numbers this year, going from 73% against zone to just 45% against man.
Everything is setting up for this game to be low-scoring, I'd play this down to 41
Pick: Under 42.5
John LanFranca's Jaguars vs. Eagles Best Bet: Birds Over Cats
The Jaguars could not afford any more injuries, and while they may get Travis Etienne back, it's much more important to the handicap to focus on their banged-up receiving corps. Christian Kirk will miss the remainder of the season, while both Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are dealing with injuries that will, at minimum, limit them, if not cause them to miss Sunday's game.
The Eagles defense has undoubtedly risen their level of play since their Week 5 bye. Having good performances against Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson may not have moved the needle, but limiting Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to just 4.8 yards per play means something. Against a short-handed Jacksonville offense, I am expecting another strong performance.
The Jaguars defense has been stout against the run, and it might seem like a good matchup against an extremely run-heavy post-bye Eagles offense. However, the Eagles are going to run the football heavily when they are leading, which is why the numbers may be convincing some this is just a ground-based offense. The Jaguars pass defense is extremely vulnerable, ranking last league-wide in DVOA, and they love to play man coverage. This is a recipe for disaster against Jalen Hurts, who averages more than 10 yards an attempt against man coverage, ranking him the third-best passer in the NFL against man.
Look for the Eagles to jump out to an early lead and never look back.
Pick: Eagles -7.5
