NFL Week 9 means we're hitting the midpoint of the regular season, and all but two teams are in action for our NFL predictions. The calendar turns to November as the leaves crisp and start to fall, and we're settling into the season as we separate the wheat from the chaff around the NFL with the playoff picture beginning to solidify.
We're at +11 units on the season in my weekly picks in this column every week with an 11.8% return on investment (ROI). I've done so by aggressively playing long shots and escalators and hitting big enough on wins to make up for losses. For NFL Week 9, I'm aggressively playing three star players' props, as well as a couple of spreads and a total.
Let's jump right into my NFL predictions.
NFL Week 9 Predictions, Parlays, Picks
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Cowboys vs. Falcons Parlay
I didn't have much fun with our ugly RB parlays last week, so how about we run back the same look at shorter odds with one of the best backs in the league?
Bijan Robinson is the real deal and has looked the part for Atlanta this season. The Falcons have been a top-five rushing attack and could absolutely mash in this game against a Cowboys run defense that hasn't been able to stop a nosebleed.
Dallas ranks second in the NFL in most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing RBs so far this season. Just check out some of the lines opposing RBs have already put up in Cowboys losses this season alone: Isaac Guerendo 14 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, David Montgomery 80 yards and a score (we played that one!), Derrick Henry 25/151/2, and Alvin Kamara 115 yards and four trips to the end zone.
Atlanta's offense is the one good unit in this game, and there's a pretty good script here for the Falcons' offensive line to dominate the trenches and allow Atlanta to run all game and keep Dak Prescott off the field with one of those 35-to-40-minute time of possession games.
Bijan has scored four TDs in the last three games, at least once in all of them, and he's averaging over 68 yards on the ground, so this is barely even a Cowboys tax. This is a better angle in a Falcons win, obviously, but Robinson just ran 21 times for 103 yards and a score and hit this in a loss two weeks ago, too.
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Dolphins vs. Bills: De'Von Achane Props
I teased this bet on the Sunday night recap podcast and in Tuesday's Doomsday rankings, but I didn't even realize how much I'd love this specific matchup for DeVon Achane.
The Bills defense has really given Miami problems under Mike McDaniel. Buffalo plays a lot of two-high safety and has successfully taken away the Dolphins explosives, forcing Miami to matriculate the ball slowly down the field, and they the Dolphins just haven't been able to do that. This is a huge must-win game for Miami at 2-5, but Buffalo has won 12 of the last 13 matchups.
Because of the way Buffalo plays defense, the Bills lead the league in both receptions and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs, by design. It's check-down city against this defense, and that's played out in the numbers. Buffalo has already allowed 3+ receptions to RBs nine times this season and 25+ receiving yards to seven RBs, with five of them putting up at least 5/50, including Breece Hall, Dare Ogunbowale, Justice Hill, and Achane himself in the first meeting.
That game was the last time Achane played with Tua Tagovailoa before last week, and it's astonishing how much Achane's numbers leap with Tua on the field. In three games with Tagovailoa, Achane has 6/50, 7/76, and 7/69 receiving, a pace for 113 catches and 1105 yards over a full season. In the four games without Tua, he had only nine catches for 49 yards combined. This has been a Miami attack since Week 1, using Achane in the slot as effectively as the WR3, and books have yet to catch up.
I'm playing aggressively and looking to play this in several ways.
Start with over 32.5 receiving yards and play 50+ as an escalator at +230 (BetMGM). Remember, Achane has at least 50 yards as a receiver in all three games with Tagovailoa this season. He had 69 and 76 yards in two of those games, so put a small piece of your bet on 70+ yards at +575, too (Caesars).
You should also play receptions. The over 3.5 is set way too low since Achane has at least six in every Tagovailoa game this year, and he's one catch away from 7+ in each of those games, so we'll play 7+ catches at +500, too (Caesars).
You should also play around with SGP odds and see what your book offers with reception and receiving yard combos since those are correlated. I'll play 5+ catches for 50+ receiving yards at +350 as well (ESPN Bet) since Achane has hit that in all three Tagovailoa games and Buffalo has already allowed that four times.
This is maybe my favorite prop of the year so far, and it's pretty game-script agnostic, too. Either Miami moves the ball with Achane, or the Dolphins are playing from behind and checking the ball down, trying to come back. He can sometimes get two or three catches on one two-minute drive, too, so you can even look to play live if it's a slow start.
I'm in for three full units on various Achane bets. Here's how I broke it all down in the Action App.
- Over 3.5 receptions (0.75 units)
- 7+ receptions +500 (0.25 units)
- Over 32.5 receiving yards (0.75 units)
- 50+ receiving yards +215 (0.5 units)
- 70+ receiving yards +575 (0.25 units)
- 5+ catches and 50+ yards +350 (0.5 units)
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Broncos vs. Ravens Against the Spread Pick
We hit the huge Browns upset over the Ravens last week so… run it back? I just can’t get close to this number or really anything past +7.
Vance Joseph’s defense is the real deal in Denver, top five both against the pass and overall by DVOA. Baltimore’s offense is elite and will find some points as long as Lamar Jackson plays as expected (knee), but the Broncos can hang.
Meanwhile, Bo Nix has quietly improved, near even odds with Caleb Williams now for Rookie of the Year, and this Baltimore pass defense ranks in the bottom quarter of the league and is very beatable. And don’t overlook the special teams, where Baltimore’s typically great unit also ranks in the bottom quarter of the NFL while Denver is top five. Every edge counts.
Denver has three losses, all but six or seven points, and the Broncos trailed by 13+ in all three of them but covered this line with late backdoor scores. Lamar Jackson as a 3-to-10-point home favorite is an ugly 6-18-1 ATS (25%), and Sean Payton is 62% ATS against teams above .500 in his career and 6-2 ATS (75%) as more than a touchdown underdog.
This is a pretty rare spot for Denver. Only eight times in the last two decades has a team covered as more than a touchdown favorite, only to be more than a touchdown underdog the following game. Only three of those teams were above .500 like Denver and all three covered the next game by almost 10 points per game, with only one of them winning outright — the Broncos.
By contrast, favorites of over a touchdown that lose by less than seven but are more than touchdown favorites again the next week are just 10-20 ATS, with three of the last five losing outright a second straight time. These trends are small, but they're tipping us off to how rare it is to see a line like this.
Moneyline dogs of +250 or longer are 9-11 SU this season with a 78% ROI, and Baltimore is responsible for two of the five losses to dogs +280 or longer. Sean Payton has a 25% ROI lifetime as a moneyline underdog. With a price as long as +385 (FanDuel), I'm compelled to nibble the moneyline, too, even though it's hard to imagine. You may choose to wait and get an even longer number in game since Baltimore is such a strong first-half team.
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Saints vs. Panthers Pick: How To Fade Carolina
It's All Saints Day this weekend, so let’s bet on the Saints.
New Orleans has been awful for a month, so Saints -7.5 here should tell you just how bad things have gotten in Carolina. The defense has been terrible all season and the latest Bryce Young experiment has gone about as well as all the rest.
Carolina’s season was over about 15 minutes into Week 1 when these Saints delivered an opening-round knockout punch. That 47-10 drubbing seems long ago, but Derek Carr is back healthy and has to be salivating at this matchup.
The Panthers have only covered one first-half spread all season, their line win when they turned to Andy Dalton. Carolina is 1-7 ATS in the first half and has allowed at least three touchdowns in every first half all season outside of that win, with an average halftime score of 24-6.9. We only need two TDs here, thanks to this total being bet down from 46 to 43.5.
Am I nervous about backing Carr and Dennis Allen as favorites? Am I worried about Carr shaking off the rust? Should we be concerned that the Saints have scored 13 or less in four of their last six games, two of them with Carr?
In a word, no. Carolina has been just that bad, and we’re getting this at +102 (DraftKings).
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Eagles vs. Jaguars: A.J. Brown Props
The Eagles offense finally got going against the Bengals last week and suddenly Philadelphia is sitting at 5-2 near the top of the NFC and coming up against a long stretch against subpar pass defenses. I haven't loved what I've seen from Jalen Hurts in this offense but he could have a shot at MVP at +2000 if things start clicking, and I still like A.J. Brown at +10000 (DraftKings) as a long shot for Offensive Player of the Year.
Brown missed three games this season, but he's been absolutely cooking when out there, with at least 84 yards in all four games. He has at least one catch for 29+ yards in every game and has a 40+ catch in all but one, and he's found the endzone in three of the four games, too.
Right now, Brown is playing as well as any WR in the league, and the Jaguars defense is abysmal. Jacksonville ranks dead last by DVOA both overall and against the pass and has been lit up with 20 passes of 27+ yards already on the season and a flurry of yards and scores in the air.
Brown has gone over 75.5 yards in 14 of 20 games since the start of last season, a 70% hit rate to this line that I bet earlier this week on the Action app before it rose to 80.5. He's hit 100 in almost half of those games (45%), so we should definitely play that alt over at +215 (DraftKings) and maybe even nibble 150+ yards at +1000 in case he explodes.
I looked at the Eagles spread here, but I don't need it past the -7, and I'd rather just play passing overs aggressively. That said, Philadelphia is by far my favorite teaser leg of the week. I recommend pairing with the Chiefs if you can tease them below -3, or perhaps the Bengals if Tee Higgins is cleared to play.
Either way, make sure to get your bet down on Brown, who should be in for a big day.
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Lions vs. Packers Pick Against the Spread
I'm going against the grain on this one, with a lot of sharp love on the Packers early in the week at +3.5 or +3 and more than a little talk about this being Jared Goff's first game outdoors this season. I think that Goff trend is framed all wrong: Goff is a 30-9 ATS indoors (77%) with the Lions, a ridiculous number, but he's 50% ATS outdoors. Being unbeatable indoors is not the same as being bad outdoors.
We might get some wind and rain here, but are we sure we like the Packers better in a sloppy run-first game? That's Detroit football all the way, winning in the trenches with the league's best offensive line and the superior run game. Detroit's run defense has been terrific with Alim McNeill and D.J. Reader up the middle, and though the Lions pass defense can be beaten, is Jordan Love up to the task?
Love is playing through a groin injury, and though he's expected to start, are we sure he'll finish? Love is still nursing injuries from Week 1, remember, and Green Bay has a bye week next. If Love is limited or comes out, Malik Willis remains a severe dropoff, no matter what 60ish passing downs against bad AFC South teams tells you from a few positive game scripts this season.
Detroit is the better team running and passing, offense and defense, and the Lions also have a huge advantage at special teams. They're best in the league by DVOA and won the game against the Titans last week on special teams alone, while the Packers consistently rank near the bottom of the league there.
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in the first half and has led by double digits at the half in five straight, leading by an average of over 15 points per game in those matchups. That means Detroit getting out early, then running the football and controlling the clock in sloppy weather to get this one home.
I don't mind playing the Lions division odds at -130 (FanDuel) if you like this angle. That's something of a proxy for a Detroit win, and the Lions would be the clear division favorites with a head-to-head win over both Green Bay and Minnesota — plus you can still win the bet even if Detroit stumbles here.
All the better that this is now below the key number at Lions -2.5, but I gave this out on the podcast at Lions -3 and didn't even mind -3.5 if necessary. Road favorites of exactly -3.5 are 60% ATS over the past two decades, the sign of a trap number with books perhaps enticing bets on the home dog.
Everything about this game script screams Lions football. Give me the better team.
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NFL Week 10 Lookahead
The Jaguars are more than a touchdown underdog against the Eagles and could get blown out. The Vikings are at home with extra rest, and they're significantly favored against Joe Flacco and the Colts. This line should only move one direction after Sunday — past the key number of four.
Jacksonville isn’t good and is still tired out after two games in London and no bye rest after. This has been the worst defense in the league by DVOA, and Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been excellent early in games. That should set Minnesota up to lead early, and we know how good the Vikings have been playing their way this season.
The offensive lines are key, too. Minnesota traded for LT Cam Robinson to save its line after the Darrisaw injury, and their gain is Jacksonville’s loss since the Jaguars traded him away. Advantage Brian Flores pass rush.
With very little home-field advantage for Jacksonville, this is just too few points for the Vikings. Give me the early -3.5.
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Early NFL Week 10 Pick
I’m away next week, so how about a bonus second Lookahead on a pick regular readers already know I’ll be playing?
I’m already playing the under in both Titans-Patriots and Chargers-Browns this weekend, so naturally, I’m bound to like the under here too.
These are both top 10 defenses, genuinely good units and far better than either untrustworthy offense. These are both also pretty slow-paced teams, another harbinger for the under.
The Chargers are 6-1 to the under and have yet to play in a game with 40 points. Jim Harbaugh totals below 44 are 29-20 to the under (59%), the second-best active coach. These teams are 9-4-1 to the first half under, so we might get a slow, ugly slog early that kills this off quickly.
This total has already dropped from the preseason Lookahead, another good sign for the under, so grab the under 38.5 before it gets to that last key number of 37 on its way down.
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