Every Sunday night, I reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here is the early NFL Wild Card Round pick I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Predictions — Wild Card Round Picks
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
I don’t care if the Broncos beat the Chiefs backups by 100 on Sunday, I’m grabbing Bills -7.5 and not looking back. These teams are not even remotely in the same weight class.
Denver had two wins against playoff teams in the regular season — that farce of a game on Sunday over Kansas City and a Week 3 victory over the Buccaneers. Otherwise, the Broncos got swept by the Chargers and demolished by the Ravens; Denver also lost twice in win-and-in games down the stretch before winning what was effectively a preseason game to get to the Wild Card round.
Buffalo’s offense has been as good as any over the back half of the season, and for as much success as Vance Joseph’s defense has had for Denver, the Bills are different animal and even better at home, where they led the league in Offensive DVOA.
Josh Allen is the likely MVP and is leagues better than rookie Bo Nix, who had a nice enough year checking down all season against inferior opponents. Nix is not built to go point-for-point with Allen on the road in a hostile environment.
We’ve had only eight 7-seeds in the four years since expanding the NFL playoffs. Five of the eight lost their opener by at least 12 points, and only once has a 7-seed won. Don’t expect Denver to add to the list.
Wild Card hosts that made last year’s postseason playing a team that didn’t are 22–10–1 ATS (69%) over the past two seasons, so history tells us Denver’s inexperience will play a factor.
Home favorites of nine or more points are 10–1 ATS, and I believe this game will get bet up as teaser protection and hit that trend — grab Buffalo -7.5 while you can.
Pick: Bills -7.5
