Records in one-score games is one of nine metrics our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, weighs in his NFL Luck Ratings.
The Seattle Seahawks are NFL Twitter's favorite example of a "lucky" team in this regard. They went 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points in 2019 en route to an 11-5 season. So hypothetically if the Seahawks would have been on the other end of "luck" in those one-score games, flipping their record to 2-9, their overall record would have been 4-12.
That's a seven-win swing.
The inverse example would be the Los Angeles Chargers, who did actually go 2-9 in one-score games last season. By applying the same hypothetical exercise, had the Chargers instead gone 9-2 in one-score games, it would have flipped their overall record from 5-11 to 12-4.
Of course, luck impacts these records. So this doesn't mean that the Seahawks were only a four-win team of the Chargers were actually a 12-win team.
Generally, we should expect teams to regress toward a .500 record in one-score games the next season — whether they had "good" or "bad" luck the season prior.
All that said, here's how every team fared in games decided by seven or fewer points in 2019.
NFL Team Records In One-Score Games
| Team | One-Score Games | Overall |
|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-4-1 | 5-10-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-3 | 7-9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5-1 | 14-2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4-5 | 10-6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2-4 | 5-11 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-3 | 8-8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0-7 | 2-14 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1-4 | 6-10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0-5 | 8-8 |
| Denver Broncos | 4-4 | 7-9 |
| Detroit Lions | 3-7-1 | 3-12-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-1 | 13-3 |
| Houston Texans | 8-3 | 10-6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5-6 | 7-9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-4 | 6-10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-4 | 12-4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2-9 | 5-11 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3-3 | 9-7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6-3 | 7-9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4-2 | 5-11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2-4 | 10-6 |
| New England Patriots | 4-3 | 12-4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-1 | 13-3 |
| New York Giants | 2-5 | 4-12 |
| New York Jets | 5-1 | 7-9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3-4 | 9-7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-5 | 8-8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9-2 | 11-5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5-3 | 13-3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | 7-9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3-3 | 9-7 |
| Washington Football Team | 2-3 | 3-13 |
About the Author
Katie is the Managing Editor at Action, where she helps oversee the NFL and fantasy football verticals. Her most profitable betting strategy is tailing Sean Koerner (before ultimately losing her winnings on first touchdown props).
Follow Katie Richcreek @katiesrichcreek on Twitter/X.
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