I have three NFL picks against the spread for the Sunday slate this week, fading two teams with records that are among the best in the NFL and backing one that is getting healthier than it's been all season.
The 49ers have not looked like their normal selves this season, but that's because of a variety of factors. One of them is the absence of All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey, who's poised to make his season debut against the Buccaneers.
Next up, Jayden Daniels will face the toughest test of his rookie season as the Commanders host the Steelers. This is a matchup of division leaders, which could not have been predicted before the season started. Washington is flying high, though, while Russell Wilson has improved the Pittsburgh offense since making his 2024 debut.
Then we're off to Indianapolis, where I'm going to fade the Bills against the Colts. This is a prime example of a trap game in the NFL with Buffalo coming off an emotional win against a divisional opponent and a massive matchup on deck next week.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 10 Predictions
I'm on a variety of teams this week. I'm betting a road favorite laying almost a touchdown, a road underdog and a home 'dog, as well.
This is a great spot to back the 49ers and Steelers, with Pittsburgh facing a Commanders offense that has taken the NFL by storm. We're also betting on the Colts against the Bills, who are in a prime "trap game" spot this week.
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49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Back San Francisco
Road favorites are 30-17-2 (63.8%) against the spread (ATS) this season. That’s almost certainly small-sample noise – road favorites went 897-868-45 (50.6%) ATS in the 20 seasons prior, according to our Action Labs data — but regression may have to wait until after this game, which shapes up as a brutal spot for the Bucs.
It’s never easy to play a better team coming off a bye, even when you’re at home. Per Action Labs, road favorites coming off a bye are 77-50-4 (61%) ATS since 2003, including a 26-11 (70%) mark when favored by more than five points.
But that’s not even the full extent of the 49ers’ rest advantage. The Bucs are coming off a shorter than usual rest after playing on Monday Night Football, in a game that went to overtime. That means a Bucs defense that allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three games and four of its last five is now exhausted after playing 84 snaps on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the bye not only enables the 49ers to get their talented collection of skill-position players the healthiest they’ve been at the same time all season – highlighted by the expected season debut of Christian McCaffrey – but it also gives one of the best offensive minds in the game in Kyle Shanahan extra time to scheme up new wrinkles.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense continue to exceed expectations despite losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, with Cade Otton emerging as the go-to-guy over the last three games with 258 yards and three touchdowns, but the 49ers rank second in pass-defense DVOA and match up well here thanks to the ability of Fred Warner and company to limit opposing tight ends. In the past two weeks, the 49ers held Travis Kelce to 17 yards on five targets and Jake Ferguson to 23 yards on eight targets.
Bet to: -7
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-110)
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Steelers vs. Commanders Prediction: Back Tomlin as Road 'Dog
As good as Jayden Daniels is, the Commanders offense almost certainly has regression coming for its 60.7% drive scoring rate (the league leader usually tops out right at or below 50%). A good deal of that likely comes against a Steelers defense that will be Washington’s toughest defensive opponent to date from both a talent and schematic standpoint.
The Steelers match up particularly well against dual-threat quarterbacks because they run a zone-heavy scheme that keeps eyes on the quarterback, have an elite edge rush with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, and have a lot of speed at linebacker with Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson. They are also more well adjusted to the speed of someone like Daniels due to facing Lamar Jackson twice every season, and they’ve generally held up well against the two-time MVP. The Steelers’ 56 rushing yards allowed quarterbacks this season is second-fewest in the NFL.
Offensively, the Steelers average the second-most rush attempts per game (33.3) and will face a Washington run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA. Pittsburgh's offense is trending upward with Russell Wilson, who has posted nearly twice as many Expected Points Added per Dropback (0.19) as Justin Fields (0.10), which ranks seventh among 42 passers with at least 60 dropbacks.
According to our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 59-31-3 (66%) ATS as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, covering by an average of 2.7 points per game.
Bet to: +2
Pick: Steelers +3 (-115)
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Bills vs. Colts Prediction: Trap Game for Buffalo
This is a classic trap game for the Bills: They’re on the road this week after an emotional, last-second victory against a divisional opponent in Miami at home last week, and they go back home to face the Chiefs next week.
Every single Colts game has been a one-possession game, and three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less. They’re 7-2 ATS despite half of their passes this season being attempted by Anthony Richardson and his 44% completion rate.
The Colts pass offense goes from -0.112 EPA/DB with Richardson to +0.092 EPA/DB with Joe Flacco. The Bills blitz at the second-lowest rate (16.5%) in the NFL, so the statuesque Flacco should have more success this week than he did last week against the Vikings, who blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.0%).
The Colts defense is trending upward with DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye and Kenny Moore all back in the lineup after missing most of the first month and a half of the season. After allowing 24.4 points and 419.2 yards per game in Weeks 1-5, Indy has allowed just 17.8 points and 339.0 total yards since Week 6.
According to our Action Labs data, road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better in the first three months of the season are 84-121-6 (41%) ATS over the past decade, failing to cover by an average of 2.1 points per game.
Bet to: +3
Pick: Colts +4 (-110)
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