Our staff of betting analysts has been thriving with its picks all season, and it has targeted four games on Sunday for its NFL Week 10 predictions.
We have a pair of experts who are backing the same road underdog in Steelers vs. Commanders. The public is on the same side as the Steelers look to maintain their lead in the AFC North after the Ravens kicked off Week 10 with a win over the Bengals.
Our attention then moves to Indianapolis for Bills vs. Colts. We have experts with a pick against the spread and on the over/under for that one, which features two teams vying for playoff position in the AFC. Buffalo is the No. 2 seed entering Week 10, while Indianapolis is one game out of the final wild-card spot.
Then, for the late slate of games, we have a fade of the Titans with Will Levis returning at quarterback against the Chargers. And for the 4:25 p.m. ET game of the week, we have an Eagles vs. Cowboys pick against the spread.
Let's get into our experts' NFL predictions for the Week 10 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions for Week 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Commanders Pick Against the Spread
This is a great spot to be backing the underdog Steelers for a number or reasons.
First and foremost, we're getting them off of a bye week, and we're getting points with the team that boasts the much better defense. Pittsburgh is eighth in total defensive DVOA, while the Commanders are 26th.
While Jayden Daniels and the Washington offensive have taken the NFL by storm, it's worth noting that their second-best league-wide offensive DVOA ranking comes with the caveat that their cumulative schedule ranking of opposing defenses they've faced so far is 28th. That means this Commanders offense, specifically, has played one of the five easiest schedules in football so far this season.
Additionally, Mike Tomlin and Russell Wilson have thrived as underdogs throughout their careers. Wilson is 36-19 (65.5%) against the spread when catching points, with this trend remaining strong even over the last three seasons, during which time he has covering 10 of 16 games as a 'dog (62.5%).
Tomlin is the most profitable coach to back when looking at all data available over the last 20 years in Bet Labs. Simply betting the Steelers every time you get points since Tomlin became head coach would have resulted in a 27% ROI over the course of more than 90 games.
More recently, over the last five seasons without Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, Tomlin has still dominated as an underdog at 33-16 (67.3%) against the number.
Pick: Steelers +3 (-115)
NFL Prediction: Trends Say 'Bet Mike Tomlin'
By Simon Hunter
Those who have followed my picks for a long time know that I love betting road 'dogs, and this is my favorite one in Week 10.
This is such a perfect spot to bet Mike Tomlin, who's coming off a bye week and is 41-28-1 as a road underdog in his time with the Steelers. When the Steelers have a worse record than their opponents as road underdogs, Tomlin is 17-10-1 ATS.
The sportsbooks will catch up to the Commanders, who are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season. Jayden Daniels hasn't faced a top-five defense this season and has faced a top-10 defense once. That was the Bears, against whom the Commanders scored just 12 points before being bailed out by a Hail Mary.
I think we'll see Washington's offense struggle against this Steelers defense. Tomlin is 26-6 straight-up in his career against rookie quarterbacks, which shows his defenses always show up in these spots. We may see a blitz-heavy game plan this week against Daniels, who has struggled when teams crowd the line of scrimmage so far this season, one of the few things he doesn't do well against.
I can see this line moving down to Commanders -2 by kickoff on Sunday. Shop around for Steelers +3 if possible. This has "last team with the ball wins by a field goal" written all over it.
Pick: Steelers +3 (-115)
Bills vs. Colts Prediction: Prime Spot To Fade Indy
By Sam Farley
This is a matchup of two teams heading in different directions.
The Bills have won four straight games and look like a real contender for the Chiefs' crown in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Colts lost their second straight game last week and didn't score an offensive touchdown in Joe Flacco's first start as the full-time starting quarterback.
The Bills are the fourth-highest-scoring team in the NFL. I have faith in them to score enough against a Colts team that ranks in the bottom half of both offensive and defensive DVOA.
Pick: Bills -3.5 (-115)
NFL Prediction on Bills vs. Colts Over/Under
The Bills have scored 30 or more points in six of their nine games this season, and I'm expecting more of the same against a vanilla Colts defense on Sunday.
Buffalo has scored touchdowns on 33% of its offensive possessions this year, ranking them third in the NFL. The Colts are 28th on defense in completion percentage of expectation (CPOE) allowed, which should translate to Josh Allen consistently moving the chains, sustaining drives subsequently and putting up points.
Both quarterbacks should feel quite comfortable. Besides the fact that this game will be played indoors, the Bills have been an elite pass blocking unit with an adjusted sack rate allowed of just 4.2% (second in the NFL). It's very difficult to envision a Colts defense that ranks 31st in pressure rate getting to Allen very often. Indianapolis' pass protection has not been too far behind that mark, ranking ninth with an adjusted sack rate of just 6.3%.
Joe Flacco and the Colts offense is coming off their worst performance of the season, but I like their chances to rebound in the friendly confines of their own stadium. Buffalo's defense surrendered 6.2 yards per play to the Dolphins last week, and that game was in Buffalo, a place they have played considerably better defensively. On the road this year, the Bills have given up 19.2 points per game. While not a terrible mark, the Colts scoring at least 20 points should be more than enough to send this game soaring over the total.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
Titans vs. Chargers: How To Fade Tennessee
Will Levis was listed as a full participant in practice on Thursday, and head coach Brian Callahan said he is "hopeful" Levis can return this week as the Titans' starting quarterback. I'm expecting him to start against the Chargers, which is good news for their talented defense.
Levis ranks 34th in EPA/play among the 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays this season. Only Bryce Young has been worse. That means Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew have all been better than him. Tennessee averaged 16.3 points in the four games Levis finished.
The Chargers have allowed the fewest points per game at 12.6, which leads the league by a significant margin. The Steelers are second at 14.6, and the Broncos are third at 17.9.
The Chargers have allowed more than 17 points just once this season and have allowed the lowest EPA/play in the league. Los Angeles has also given up the second-lowest dropback EPA and rush EPA. All around, this is simply an elite unit.
If Levis can put together three scoring drives, I'll tip my cap and admit defeat. If it's Mason Rudolph instead of Levis, we're still in a solid spot. Rudolph has only been slightly better than Levis.
Pick: Titans Team Total Under 15.5 (-120)
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction: Fade Dallas
The Eagles have righted the ship after a slow start, ripping off four straight wins since their Week 5 bye. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, particularly on the ground. Saquon Barkley has totaled 443 rushing yards in his last three games, and Jalen Hurts has six rushing TDs in that stretch.
Dallas will be down Dak Prescott, who landed on the injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush is a competent backup option, but the Cowboys' offense will certainly take a hit. This unit was middling even with Prescott healthy.
The biggest issue for Dallas is stopping the Philly rushing attack. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game. Quarterbacks and running backs have both had plenty of success on the ground against this defense. It would take an outlier performance for Dallas to slow down Barkley and company.
Pick: Eagles -7 (-115)
