Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions and picks.
For reference, my season-long sides record in this file sits at 23-13 (63.9%) for +8.65 units after last Sunday's sweaty sweep.
For my expert picks against the spread in Week 12, I'm targeting a pair of short divisional home dogs in the early slate followed by a road pup in a major out-of-conference clash.
This was the first bet I made of the week. I've previously mentioned our luck rankings. Well, for this particular matchup, there's a Luck Differential of 29 and a Luck Gap of 40%, as the Eagles have been the second-luckiest team in the league, while the Bills sit in the bottom 3.
These are essentially two teams that should have seven wins heading into this matchup.
Yes, the Eagles have a 9-1 record, but they've looked underwhelming on both sides of the ball for large stretches. Just take a look at the past three weeks.
- Washington had 98 more yards in a back-and-forth game that the Eagles pulled out by one possession.
- Dallas finished with 114 more yards in a five-point loss due to multiple failed red zone trips and a trio of Philly fortunate fumble recoveries.
- Kansas City had 98 more yards but couldn't overcome two red zone turnovers, two more Philly fumble recoveries, a botched punt downing and countless drops, including a wide-open one that would've likely won the game in the final minute.
How much different would the narrative be surrounding the Eagles if they had lost to Dallas and Kansas City — two teams that out-played them rather significantly? Or what if the Commanders went for two in their first meeting in another one-possession victory in overtime?
Even earlier in the season, the Vikings could have easily beat Philadelphia if not for four turnovers, including a flukey Justin Jefferson fumble that turned into a touchback. Even the Patriots only lost by five in a game they out-gained Philly by more than 130 total yards back in Week 1.
Overall, the Eagles have gone 6-1 in one-possession games and have one of the lowest point differentials (+61) for a 9-1 team in NFL history. For reference, the Bills are one of four teams with a point differential of more than 100 points. Plus, Buffalo plays in the AFC, which has to be mentioned here due to significant conference superiority. Following back-to-back losing seasons, through 11 weeks in 2023, the AFC has gone 34-23 (59.6%) against the NFC.
Admittedly, I'm a bit concerned about the injuries in Buffalo's secondary. However, it appears that safety Micah Hyde will be available while the recently added Rasul Douglas (who now ranks second among all corners, per PFF) has been a revelation on the outside.
As long as Douglas, Benford and Cam Lewis can go, Buffalo has enough on the back end to at least not get embarrassed on the back end by a still inefficient Eagles passing attack.
Philadelphia also suffered a few injuries at their skill positions worth monitoring. Plus, the Eagles will still be without Dallas Goedert (and likely his backup), who is so important to this offense, especially in the red zone and on third downs. The offense still just looks a bit off with Hurts not quite at 100% mobility just yet and a drop-off in play-calling (in my opinion) with a new offensive coordinator. Buffalo, which has the second-most sacks in the league, can generate pressure without blitzing, which is paramount against Hurts.
On the other side of the ball, I really liked what I saw from the Buffalo offense last week, especially in terms of early down passing rates, under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. There also remains some uncertainty that works in Buffalo's favor here with only one game of tape for Philadelphia to study (on a short week).
This Eagles defense, which ranks 18th in EPA per Play and 17th DVOA, has major holes on the back end and across the middle of the field. They have really struggled to defend tight ends, slot receivers and short passes. Buffalo has the personnel to take advantage of each deficiency.
Look for a big game out of Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs, who will likely see his slot usage increase. On the season, he has lined up in the slot 159 times and on the outside 261. He could potentially have the type of performance Ceedee Lamb had against the Eagles a few weeks back.
For all of the hoopla surrounding Josh Allen's struggles, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2023. For the season, the Bills offense ranks in the top three in EPA per Play and Success Rate (both ahead of the Eagles) and seemed to thrive last week after some minor tweaks. The Buffalo offensive line has also continued to improve as the season has progressed, allowing the second-fewest sacks in the league, which is critical against Philadelphia's vaunted defensive line.
Last but certainly not least, the situational spot here favors Buffalo substantially. The Eagles will come home on a short week after getting Super Bowl revenge over the Kansas City Chiefs in an emotionally and physically taxing game. Don't be surprised if Philly comes out a little flat after such a monumental win with the 49ers and Cowboys on deck.
Meanwhile, the Bills have a full week to prepare for a game they essentially need in the AFC playoff race with a brutal stretch of games coming up. I expect a fully focused effort from start to finish from Buffalo.
After fading the Bills for five straight weeks, I said leading up to last week's game against the Jets that it's time to buy low on Buffalo moving forward, which I'll happily do here in a great spot with a line I show value on against an Eagles team that has plenty of looming regression coming its way in the near future. Let's just hope it starts this Sunday.
Trending: Josh Allen is 23-15-2 ATS (60.5%) on the road in his career. That includes an impressive 10-4-2 (71.4%) record against the number as a road underdog, covering by an average margin of just under six points per game.
As many predicted in the preseason, the NFC South is a complete mess. The Saints sit in first place with a 5-5 record, leading the Falcons and Bucs by a game apiece. We knew New Orleans would have one of the league's easiest schedules, but its five wins have been laughable:
- Titans by 1
- Panthers by 3
- Patriots by 34
- Colts by 11
- Bears by 7
Coming into Week 12, those five teams have a combined record of 14-37 (27.4%). However, it's even worse than that as four of those teams either started a backup quarterback or one who is no longer starting.
In Week 9 against the Bears, the Saints couldn't even muster a cover despite a 5-0 turnover advantage. Even with rookie signal-caller Tyson Bagent getting the start, Chicago still found a way to out-gain New Orleans 368-301. The Titans also would've beaten the Saints if not for a clear defensive touchdown that the officials mistakenly blew dead. It's been ugly, to say the least.
That said, the Falcons haven't been a portrait of beauty in 2023 with a 4-6 record through 10 games. However, after a 3-2 start out of the gates, they have dropped four of five, but all four losses came by one possession, including two in the final seconds against Minnesota and Arizona.
They also lost at home to Washington in bizarre fashion after finishing with a whopping 402-193 total yardage advantage.
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As a result, Atlanta sits dead last in our season-long proprietary Luck Rankings. It also has lost nine of 11 fumbles, which have contributed to a poor -6 turnover margin. In comparison, the Saints sit at +6 to date. Positive regression certainly looms on the horizon for the Falcons.
In regards to the injury situation, the Saints will not have the services of wide receiver Michael Thomas (IR) or star cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who provides the Saints with so much flexibility on that side of the ball.
There's also uncertainty regarding the quarterback situation with Derek Carr in concussion protocol, but I don't have a material difference between him and Jameis Winston. I expect Carr to play, which might be a bit favorable in this particular matchup with the lack of downfield passing attack when he's under center in a game in which neither team should get much going on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Falcons will welcome back former Saint David Onyemata in the interior. He's been tremendous so far in 2023 and is needed even more now after the season-ending injury to Grady Jarrett. Atlanta should also get Dee Alford back in the slot, where he has played well.
Lastly, this is off the beaten path, but tight end Parker Hesse should make his season debut. He's not a household name, but he provides a big boost in the run blocking department for the rush-heavy Falcons, especially with Desmond Ridder back under center.
This handicap doesn't involve anything fancy or any nuanced matchup analysis between two evenly-matched teams with similar strengths and weaknesses. I'm simply a bit higher than the market on Atlanta and lower on New Orleans.
Therefore, I have these teams rated about the same on a neutral field, so I happily took the small dog price on the Falcons, who will have home-field advantage and a much cleaner bill of health. The Falcons also boast a more reliable kicker and punter, which could make all the difference in a likely low-scoring, competitive affair. Circling back to the bad luck they have suffered this year, it's even happened on special teams, where the Falcons rank dead last in Hidden Points, which measures factors out of a team's control such as opposing field goal percentage and punt distance.
Atlanta even has a rare coaching advantage in this one. I think the Falcons find a way to get this done and move into a tie for first place in the NFC South at 5-6, which would just feel right after 12 weeks into the season in a division that might end up with an eight-win champ.
Trending: Dennis Allen owns a paltry 23-38-2 (37.7%) career ATS record (9-17-1 with the Saints) as a head coach, failing to cover by an average of 2.5 points per game. Over the past 20 years, only Jon Gruden has been less profitable among 147 head coaches, per Action Labs.
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Last week, I faded the voodoo Steelers in a similar price range on the road in a divisional matchup against an inexperienced quarterback. Well, I'm going back to the well this Sunday and backing the Bengals even with Jake Browning slated to get the start under center.
It wasn't easy last week, and it took a last-second Cleveland field goal to get to the window, but we projected the final score closer to 20-5, so it's no surprise the Steelers maintained the top spot in our Luck Rankings by a wide margin.
Mike Tomlin's bunch sits at 6-4 on the season, but they've played more like a 3-7 team with all six victories coming by one possession in comeback fashion. Amazingly, the Steelers were the first team in NFL history to sport a winning record through nine games despite being out-gained in each one. After last week, that now holds true through 10.
On the season, Pittsburgh owns a -29 net points differential in addition to a whopping -875 net yardage disparity. For comparison, the 1-9 Panthers have been out-gained by a total of only 419 yards. Regression is going to continue to hit hard in the Steel City for a team that also leads the NFL in turnover margin at +11. Voodoo doesn't last forever. Unlike DTR, Browning actually has had a few seasons of pro experience learning the offense on the practice squad. He also gained valuable live reps in the second half against Baltimore last week.
Generally speaking, I also just like to back these backup quarterbacks in their first start, as I think the market tends to over-correct for the loss of a starter. Plus, I believe in a few effects that might help them for that first game. For starters, similar to basketball in the first game without a star player, everybody else seems to step up in an all-out effort. That's very anecdotal and impossible to quantify, but I believe there's some correlation.
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Additionally, there's an element of surprise with the lack of film on the new starter and the uncertainty of what the new offense will look like, especially early on in the scripted portions of the game.
It also helps that the Cincy staff has extra time to get Browning prepared for his first career start after playing on Thursday night. Star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase should also be back to 100% after dealing with a back injury. I expect to see a heavy dose of Joe Mixon, quick one-read throws and a few periodic shots to Chase, who in his own words, is always open. He's at least a nice security blanket for an inexperienced QB.
Ultimately, Kenny Pickett should not be a favorite on the road against almost any team. Out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 125 plays, Pickett ranks third-worst in EPA+CPOE composite, leading only Aidan O'Connell and the recently demoted to third-string Zach Wilson.
Firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada was a prudent long-term move, but I'm not sure how much the offense can change in less than one week with an internal promotion. Plus, Pickett is still bad and refuses to throw over the middle of the field, which is where you must attack this Cincinnati defense after the departure of both starting safeties in the offseason.
I expect an all-out effort from the Bengals with their season on the line. It's pretty much over anyway without Burrow, but a loss essentially buries their wild-card chances with a very tough remaining schedule and a backup quarterback at the helm.
Expect everyone else to step up around Browning, who will likely have a very vanilla game plan to execute in what profiles as a similar low-scoring affair to Pittsburgh's game last week in Cleveland. Not only did the Steelers lose to DTR, but they also could've easily lost at home to Will Levis and Jordan Love, who both had rare productive days against this over-rated Pittsburgh pass defense.
Trending:Over the past four seasons, backup quarterbacks making their first career start have gone 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%).
