Every Sunday night, I'll reveal the bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 13 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 13 Picks
Colts vs. Patriots Prediction
It feels like two bad teams, but in reality, it's really one slightly below-average team and one awful team.
The Patriots were down 31-0 before notching 15 points in garbage time during the fourth quarter. Last week, they fell to the Dolphins by the score of 28-13.
For the Colts, five out of their six losses were by one score. They're also 4-1 against sub-.500 squads.
This week's loss against the Lions was a mismatch from the start. Indy got trucked, and the Lions are an absolute wagon indoors.
With that said, let's dive into both teams' outlooks from the past six games entering today:
The Colts are mostly average, and against the run, they're ranked in the bottom 10. The one saving grace is their secondary, where they're ranked in the top seven.
New England, on the other hand, is a total trainwreck. The Pats are an OK team throwing the ball, but given how well Indy does in the secondary, you can negate that. So, can their run game save the day? Zero shot. New England is ranked dead last when it comes to running the ball.
Along with that, it's the worst pass-defense team in the league and is ranked in the bottom five, stopping the run. I would expect the Colts to be fine in this matchup, both defensively and on the ground.
One thing I've noticed is that when the Patriots fall behind in the first half, they're 3-9 ATS. That plays perfectly for the Colts since Shane Steichen's teams are 7-2 ATS when listed as a favorite.
I think this line pushes 3 or beyond, so get it before it gets there. Take the average team that's actually trying.
On another note, while the Colts aren't very good with a 5-7 record, their schedule is enticing. The Texans are allowing the AFC South to be a close race and Indianapolis' next five games opponents entail New England, Denver, Tennessee, the Giants and Jacksonville.
Indianapolis, at over 8.5 wins, is +176 on FanDuel, and winning the division is at +1000. If the Texans continue to fall and the Colts take advantage of their easy schedule, this may be a play.
49ers vs. Bills Prediction
This spread is a major overreaction to San Francisco's blowout loss to Green Bay.
The Niners were missing Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams and Charvarius Ward, all of whom may be back in Week 13.
Just a few days ago, this line was Bills -3 and I'm supposed to believe that loss made that much of an impact on the lines? I think it's nonsense.
San Francisco is 5-6 and ironically still has a shot at winning the NFC West. It faces the Bears and the Rams in the next two games, so the schedule isn't terrible.
I really like the run fits in this matchup, especially with Williams back at left tackle and McCaffrey getting a few games under his belt. The Niners' run defense is a weakness, but it funnels to the middle and they become above average.
The middle is right where Buffalo wants to power run.
Buffalo's defense usually pushes runs outside, which is typically what you want. However, the Niners are elite at running outside — the best in the league, to be exact.
Not only that, San Francisco's offense was second in the league before the Green Bay game and its defense is third in the first half, whereas the Bills are 19th. It's just a matter of getting on the right foot.
It's no secret that the Bills are red hot and this bye is great for them to recover. The problem is teams who have scored over 25 points in five straight games since 2009, like the Bills, are 41% ATS.
Additionally, home favorites of 6-6.5 in that same time frame are 43% ATS, including 3-11 ATS this season.
You just have to play a team this talented with this big of a line to swing at a key number. If the injury news looks good, this could easily get back down toward 3-4, so grab this while you can. I recommend playing the +260 moneyline as well.
