Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and betting card for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions and picks.
For reference, my season-long sides record in this file sits at 30-15 (66.7%) for +13.45 units after last Sunday's 2-1 outing.
For my expert picks against the spread in Week 15, I'm targeting a pair of home favorites as well as a road underdog.
This is the buy-low, sell-high spot of the week.
While the Lions have dropped two of three to leave the door cracked open in the NFC North, the Broncos have won six of seven to somehow get back in the AFC West race with the Chiefs faltering.
Since giving up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3, Denver's defense improved after making a few key lineup tweaks in the secondary and getting a bit healthier in the front seven. The Broncos no longer sport the historically bad defense they were trending toward to start the year.
Since Week 4, they rank fourth in the NFL in EPA per play. However, a lot of that is smoke and mirrors, in my opinion. In their six victories, they've benefited from 18 takeaways and a +15 overall turnover margin. That's unsustainable, especially since turnovers have negligible predictive value. Denver also got to face P.J. Walker and Easton Stick, in addition to Joshua Dobbs and an under-the-weather Patrick Mahomes.
If you remove turnovers and garbage time against those backup quarterbacks, the Denver defense ranks 25th in EPA per play and 30th in Success Rate on early downs, which is much more predictive. This is still a bottom-10 defense when push comes to shove.
While the Lions defense has been trending in the opposite direction since Week 7 as one of the league's worst-rated units, they have been unfortunate in a number of categories, including third-and-long attempts.
I've faded Detroit quite a bit of late, but it feels like the perfect time to buy low on them at home — and indoors — where you get the best version of Jared Goff, who will thrive against many of the coverages he'll see on Saturday.
Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup by a wide margin, but that gap grows even larger if you remove Goff's performances outdoors, where he always turns into a pumpkin.
Everybody has started to write off the Lions, but they've still gone 4-2 over their last six games with both losses coming as a result of a -6 turnover margin and a 2-for-10 fourth-down conversion rate.
Denver is prone to a defensive letdown and turnover regression over the final few weeks of the season. I'm willing to bet on that starting on Saturday by scooping up the Lions on the cheap with a favorable matchup against a Denver team playing its third straight road game on a short week.
While the sample size is minuscule, teams playing their third straight road game in December have gone just 11-17 ATS (39.3%) over the last 20 seasons, failing to cover by nearly a field goal per game on average.
Trending: Jared Goff has gone 30-15 ATS (66.7%) indoors compared to just 33-33 (50.0%) outdoors. Among 220 quarterbacks in our Action Labs database who have started at least one game inside a dome since 2003, Goff is the most profitable.
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As a lifelong Ravens fan, I'm as big of a Joe Flacco supporter as anybody — I happily backed him last week against Jacksonville. However, that was a dream situational spot against a beat-up Jaguars team. Now, we are asking the Browns, with 38-year-old Flacco, to win by margin against the surging Bears.
The Bears defense has done a complete 180 under head coach Matt Eberflus. Since Week 7, they are fifth in EPA per play — one spot ahead of the Browns — and ninth in Success Rate. Acquiring defensive end Montez Sweat has provided much-needed pressure, while the back end has enjoyed much better health with No. 1 cornerback Jaylen Johnson playing at an All-Pro level with a spectacular 26.1 Passer Rating Against.
Over that same span, the Bears offense has steadily improved with Justin Fields making strides as a passer after tweaking his drop-back mechanics. It doesn't hurt to have a healthier backfield and an offensive line that has started to figure things out.
While Cleveland's defense has dominated at home all season, it has struggled at times with mobile quarterbacks who can evade pressure. Fields certainly possesses the ability to do just that against the high frequency of man-coverage looks he'll see.
On the injury front, Chicago enters this game fully healthy outside of Yannick Ngakoue's season-ending ankle injury. Conversely, Cleveland is hurting across the board.
Along the offensive line, starting center Ethan Pocic suffered an injury and Dawand Jones — Cleveland's third starting OT this season — landed on injured reserve. The Browns are also dealing with a few injuries in the backfield after already losing star running back Nick Chubb. I wouldn't expect Cleveland to have much success on the ground against this stout Bears run defense, while the offensive line injuries may spell doom for Flacco.
On the other side of the ball, with Denzel Ward and Juan Thornhill already out of the lineup, Grant Delpit left last week's game with a groin injury and joins fellow safety Rodney McLeod on IR. Along the defensive line, starting defensive tackle Maurice Hurst was placed on IR and his backup Jordan Elliott is in concussion protocol; backup defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo will also likely miss time with a pectoral injury.
In total, the Browns will be missing 11-13 players who regularly contributed at some point this season. That tends to catch up with teams late in the year.
I'll continue to ride the Bears momentum and sell the Browns after a win they seem to be getting a bit too much credit for.
Trending: Kevin Stefanski is just 8-16 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite of three-plus points as a head coach.
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This looks like a prime spot to fade the Cowboys after a massive revenge win over the Eagles, which really came at a perfect time in the schedule against a reeling Philly squad. Plus, Dallas played that game at home, where it has dominated all season.
Things won't come as easy outdoors in Buffalo in December for a Dallas team averaging 39.9 points at home compared to just 23.7 on the road despite facing an easier schedule of defenses away from Jerry World.
I've stayed far away from even considering a Cowboys fade since the bye week. I've loved what Dallas has done from a play-calling perspective with Dak Prescott also much more willing to use his legs. A healthier offensive line and defensive adjustments since the loss of a pair of starters has also sent their power rating soaring over the last two months.
However, we are probably at or near the peak of the market value on Dallas after five straight victories with the previous three all coming at home and only one against an opponent with a current winning record.
After all of the massive injuries on defense, I bet against the Bills on a weekly basis for six weeks. However, the market finally bottomed out and failed to account for some tweaks that Sean McDermott made schematically, in addition to the acquisition of cornerback Rasul Douglas and a few other key pieces getting healthier.
It also makes sense that other players have become more comfortable over time with their increased roles and responsibilities following the losses of Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones and Tre'Davious White.
I’ve been fading the Bills consistently since week 5 due to the D drop off but this extreme commentary today is hilarious. Buy signal.
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) November 14, 2023
It is worth noting that A.J. Epenesa and Micah Hyde suffered injuries last weekend, but this defense continues to trend upward. Meanwhile, the offense continues to fire on all cylinders under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the offensive line is peaking at the right time.
I don't have much bad to say about the Cowboys outside of their very favorable schedule and fortunate turnover luck. They are one of the seven teams I've said all year have a realistic shot of winning the Super Bowl.
But in a battle of two top-five teams, I'm going to trust the spot and Josh Allen, who's currently playing as well as any quarterback in the league, laying under a field goal at home. For what it's worth, since the second month of his rookie season, Allen is 21-9-2 (70.0%) ATS as a favorite of less than three points or underdog, covering by 4.7 points per game. Look for his legs to make all the difference in this matchup.
Give me the Bills in a desperation spot in front of an absolutely raucous crowd in a game where I essentially just need Allen to find a way to win.
Trending: Over the last 20 regular seasons, underdogs in December and January with a winning percentage of at least 75% have gone 29-49-2 ATS (37.2%), failing to cover by just under a field goal per game on average. That includes a paltry 16-37-2 ATS mark when on a multigame winning streak.
