NFL Week 17 is already well underway as I lay out my NFL predictions and props.
We had two Christmas games, a Thursday night snoozer and 3 games on Saturday. All those island games have left us with Sunday slate that has just six 1 p.m. ET games and 2 late-window matchups before a de facto playoff game on Sunday Night Football, but bettors can't be picky when there's money to be made.
Sometimes the ugliest slates leave the prettiest angles, and winning bets is a beautiful thing no matter how you get there. It's Christmas season, so let's unwrap some gifts and a flurry of alternate lines and escalators and have a little holiday fun with our Week 17 NFL picks and predictions.
NFL Predictions: Week 17 Props, Picks, Parlays
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Browns vs. Dolphins
I already teased Miami down to a pick'em on the Hot Read to start the week, and now I'm loading up with a team total escalator and a couple of props on each side. Somehow, this Browns–Dolphins game has become my favorite game of the week to bet.
A lot of the cap starts with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who is, for my money, perhaps the worst quarterback in football. Thompson-Robinson was limited in practice this week with a calf injury but is in line to start, per Ken Dorsey, and that's good news for the Dolphins.
Thompson-Robinson has thrown eleven 15+ yards passes this season. He's yet to complete a single one — unless you count the three interceptions completed to the wrong team. Over the past two seasons, he ranks last, 55th out of 55 QBs with at least 200 plays, in EPA + CPOE. That's right behind luminaries such as Easton Stick, Zach Wilson, Cooper Rush, Drew Lock, and Bailey Zappe — who's set to be the backup here if Thompson-Robinson can't finish the game.
Miami's defense has been around league-average over the past six weeks, including 8th against the run. If the Browns can't run much in this game, how are they going to score?
In four Thompson-Robinson starts for his career, the Browns have scored 3, 13, 12, and 6 points — a putrid 8.5 PPG. This team is fully in the tank.
I love Cleveland's team total under 16.5 points (-110 BetRivers), a line the books just can't set low enough.
But why stop there? Let's take the Thompson-Robinson mineshaft and fade Cleveland to the bank: under 10.5 Browns points at +300 (DraftKings) and under 6.5 at +600 (bet365), which has a 50% hit rate in Thompson-Robinson starts!
There is at least one guy happy Thompson-Robinson is starting, though. Thompson-Robinson doesn't throw to his WRs much but he's made David Njoku look pretty good. When Thompson-Robinson plays at least a half, Njoku averages 7.4 catches for 61 yards. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh most receptions to tight ends, including 5+ catches to a TE in five of the last seven games. Look for a Njoku escalator from 5-to-7 receptions when it posts.
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Packers vs. Vikings
It's a pretty ugly Sunday slate with so many Christmas and Saturday games flexed out, but this one flexed to the late afternoon slot is a game. The Vikings won the first meeting in September by two points, and these rivals have split the series for four straight years.
It's the game of the week, and I don't need a side, but I want to keep playing tight ends against the Packers. Green Bay ranks in the bottom three against TEs by DVOA, and we already hit a Jonnu Smith escalator against the Packers on Thanksgiving as well as a George Kittle touchdown the week before.
Green Bay has allowed 50+ yards to six tight ends already despite facing a very soft opposing slate, and the Packers have allowed 5+ receptions to six tight ends since just the start of October.
T.J. Hockenson loves playing Green Bay. He has six catches for 88 yards in his one game against the Packers last season, 7/59 with the Vikings the previous season, and 8/66 with the Lions before that — so Hockenson is doing it on multiple teams.
Hockenson is also playing more now that he's ramped up from his injury return. His snap rate was in the 40% range his first three games back, then in the 60% for four games, and he hit 70% last week for the first time. More time on the field against a defense that can't cover tight ends is a winning formula.
I like Hockenson to go over 43.5 yards at BetMGM (-110), and I don't mind the receptions over at 4.5 (+110) or a Hockenson escalator if you like the angle.
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers
My models make this game around Bucs -5 or -6, so Tampa Bay should definitely be favored, but this line is simply pushed too far. It has gone to the other side of the key number, which buys clear value on Carolina.
Carolina has covered six of its last seven games, and it's been playing quality football. The one non-cover was a predictable letdown spot as favorites against Dallas (when we bet the Cowboys). Outside of that ugly game, Carolina ranks above league-average by DVOA in that stretch.
During the same run, the Panthers have climbed out of the bottom-10 defenses and rank in the top 10 against the pass, and quarterback Bryce Young's offense has been more than respectable at No. 12.
Tampa Bay's season-long profile looks pretty strong after 15 games, but the way the Bucs got there has been very inconsistent. That's especially true of the pass defense, so Young should be able to make noise.
One area that hasn't improved for Carolina is its terrible run defense, but don't be surprised if the Panthers can run some too. Tampa's usually stout run defense is a bottom-five unit against runs up the middle, and that's where Carolina's rushing attack focuses and is at its best.
From Week 14 forward, division underdogs on a one-game cover streak like the Panthers have covered 57% of the time; if they're on a one-game win streak straight up, they're 71% ATS. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is just 38% ATS for his career as a favorite.
We see this every season in the final few weeks. Teams facing must-win games like the Bucs end up seeing lines inflated by a couple of points, and this line is just too high. Carolina has fought hard the entire second half of the season and plays the Bucs and Falcons to close things out, so the road to the NFC South crown goes through Carolina.
I'm not just betting on Carolina +8. Play the +340 moneyline at FanDuel too. The Panthers can win this.
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Jets vs. Bills
I'm calling this the Evan Abrams special. Not a ton of matchup analysis or numbers here — mostly just vibes.
Aaron Rodgers has had an incredibly disappointing season, but he threw his 499th career passing touchdown last week, which puts him on the brink of becoming just the fifth player in NFL history to throw for 500. And Evan and I are banking on Rodgers wanting to force-feed that special No. 500 TD to the guy who's caught more of his touchdowns than any player, wide receiver Davante Adams.
Adams has scored a touchdown in four straight games, finding the endzone in 10 of his last 16 games with Rodgers. That duo has its timing back, and that makes them lethal in the red zone, especially against a Bills defense that's bled points in recent weeks.
This line is egregious at +180 for Adams to score a touchdown (DraftKings), but we can't just stop there.
If I'm right that Rodgers wants to force-feed TD No. 500 to Adams, we should bet on it happening early in the game too. Adams is +375 to score the first Jets touchdown (bet365) and he's +1300 to score the game's first touchdown at DraftKings.
Could the Jets win the coin toss and march right down the field and into the record books.
Everyone is buzzing about the MVP conversation after quarterback Lamar Jackson's big second half in a blowout win over the overrated Texans, almost as if they forgot that Josh Allen still gets to play this weekend too.
Allen has had his issues against the Jets in the past, but this is not that old Jets defense. New York ranks in the bottom five in pass defense over the last six weeks and bottom quarter of the league on the road this season, while the Bills' offense ranks No. 1 at home. Buffalo had scored 30+ points in eight straight games before coming out flat against the Patriots last week, so you might just want to bet the Bills team total over 27.5 points.
I prefer to play for another big Allen stat line. It's finally his time to win MVP, and he's been doing it by air and by land lately. Allen has run for a touchdown in five of the last six games, and we saw this big bump late last season too. The Jets have also allowed seven QB rushing TDs, second most in the league.
Play Allen at -105 for an Anytime Touchdown (FanDuel), and how about a little escalator?
Allen is around +500 to score two ATDs, and his passing touchdown line is at 1.5. FanDuel has a "Christmas MVP" bet under weekly specials for Allen to record two passing and two rushing touchdowns at +1500. He's done that three times already this season, including two of the last three weeks.
Go get that MVP, Josh.
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Titans vs. Jaguars
I have a flurry of trends backing the under 39.5 here but can't quite get there. The Titans' defense is fading rapidly, and Jacksonville's defense has been terrible all season. I can't find a way to bet on both of these defenses, and I'd rather just keep betting against the Jags.
Jacksonville's defense ranks dead last in DVOA, both overall and against the pass. The Jaguars have allowed the third most yards to opposing receivers and have allowed 13 of them to post at least 69 yards, with eight of those 13 scoring a touchdown too.
This is a great spot for a Calvin Ridley revenge game, coming back to Jacksonville after things didn't go so well last season before being cut.
Ridley played the Jaguars a month ago and had all the makings for a revenge game, with 12 targets and seven catches both second most on the season for him. He's also seeing more work with Mason Rudolph, averaging 8.4 targets and 75 YPG in Rudolph games versus 6.7 and 48 with Will Levis.
I like Ridley to go over 58.5 receiving yards (-113, Caesars), and though he's not scored only four TDs this season, Ridley has been a big TD threat in the past with 8+ TDs in three of five seasons.
Let's take the Calvin Ridley revenge game escalator.
Play 60 yards and a TD at +345 (DraftKings) — something Ridley's done thrice this season and that the Jaguars have allowed eight times. The Jags have allowed eight 100-yard WR games, so play that at +450 (bet365) too, and sprinkle 120 yards and a score at +1300 (DraftKings) in case he explodes.
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Raiders vs. Saints
My model loves the over 37.5 in this disgusting game, with games 76% to the over when two indoor teams play with a total at 41 or below, but it's just too ugly for me to bet. But if these teams miraculously find some offense, there's a pretty good chance it'll involve tight-end Brock Bowers.
Bowers probably won't win Rookie of the Year, but he's 10 yards from passing Mike Ditka's rookie tight end receiving record and five catches from passing Puka Nacua's reception record for rookies.
Quarterback Aidan O'Connell loves Bowers too. When AOC starts or plays at least a third of the snaps, Bowers is averaging 8.5 receptions for 91.5 yards on 11.3 targets. In six such games, Bowers has double-digit targets and at least eight catches in five of those six (83%).
The Saints defense looks there for the taking, too. New Orleans ranks in the bottom five against TEs by DVOA and has bled big lines against the top three tight ends it has faced: Dallas Goedert 10/170, Travis Kelce 9/70, and David Njoku 9/81.
I'm taking the Bowers receptions escalator and looking for another big game. The Raiders have little left to play for other than helping Bowers finish off his historic rookie tight end season.
Take the traditional Bowers line over 6.5 receptions at +110 (BetMGM), but I'll play a bigger portion of my bet on the first escalator at 8+ receptions at +200 (bet365) since that's where this line should be. I'll also play a half unit on 10+ catches at +650 (bet365), something Bowers has already done four times since mid-October.
It's been an incredible rookie season for Brock Bowers. Let's hope he finishes in style.
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