Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Below are my ATD picks for NFL Week 3 from the Touchdown Show, which you can watch every Sunday morning on Action Network's YouTube page.
Jefferson has 20 catches for 309 yards through two games this season, but he somehow hasn’t caught a touchdown.
Touchdown regression is coming for Jefferson, and what better matchup for him this week than to face the Chargers? This game has the highest projected total of Week 3.
I have to play Jefferson here to get in on the fun.
Williams has a 24.3% target share and 29.4% first-read share. Justin Herbert is still looking his way, so his first touchdown of the season is coming.
Also, like Jefferson, Williams is playing in the game with the highest total of Week 3.
Williams saw 13 targets last week, hauling in eight catches for 83 yards. This week, he should be covered by Byron Murphy, who has an 87.5% catch rate against him this season.
It feels like the breakout week for Williams in 2023.
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Kincaid is third on the Bills in red-zone targets so even though this isn’t the best matchup for him against Washington, that first NFL touchdown is coming.
Kincaid saw his workload increase last week with five receptions on six targets for 43 yards.
Also, not to be overlooked here is that one of my twin boys is named Dalton, which is a factor that cannot be overlooked.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tiers
The anytime touchdown tiers are a weekly feature that breaks each weekend’s matchups to identify players with the highest likelihood of scoring a touchdown each week. This is designed as a resource for you to use on your anytime touchdown plays.
The rankings consist of four tiers, with Tier 1 containing players I feel most confident in scoring a touchdown that weekend. These are players who are getting heavy volume and/or have a great matchup. Nothing is a sure thing when betting anytime touchdowns, but these are the players I feel are closest to that sure thing designation.
Tier 2 are also players I really like to score a touchdown but rank just below those tier 1 players. Tier 2 players still have good matchups and solid volume, but just fall right below those Tier 1 players.
Tiers 3 (and Tier 4) is where a lot can be found. These are mostly players with a good shot of scoring, but the odds aren’t going to be in the -120 range or anywhere near there. Tier 4 consists of longer odds players that could find the end zone, and the odds are often reflective of that, who don't see the volume or have the best matchup.
If you are making an anytime touchdown parlay, sticking to Tier 1 (and Tier 2) players is your best bet, as both tiers are the two most likely to score (Tier 1 being the favorites). Each Tier is ranked as well, so the top player in each tier would be a favorite to score a touchdown and so on down the list. That way you can see which players within each tier I like the most. These have produced some memorable anytime touchdown parlay hits, so use this as a resource when throwing together your plays.
Here are the players who stand out in Week 3.
Tier 1
RB Tony Pollard (DAL)
RB Kenneth Walker (SEA)
TE Travis Kelce (KC)
WR A.J. Brown (PHI)
Tier 2
WR Calvin Ridley (JAC)
RB Josh Jacobs (LV)
RB Kyren Williams (LAR)
Tier 3
WR Mike Williams (LAC)
QB/TE Taysom Hill (NO)
WR Amari Cooper (CLE)
Tier 4
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
