My NFL Week 4 picks are here, and it feels like we're finally starting to settle into the new season.
Week 3 was Kitchen Sink Week, and what a glorious week it was. The top five Kitchen Sink teams we ranked a week ago — the Rams, Ravens, Giants, Colts, and Panthers — all covered ATS and won outright — three of them as touchdown underdogs. We smashed in last week's column, finishing +11.79 units at 88% ROI. I'm now at +5.24 units with a 15.7% ROI on the season.
There are now fewer winless teams (three) than undefeated ones (five). I wrote about the 3-0 teams — the Chiefs, Bills, Seahawks, Vikings and Steelers — and it may be time to start fading some of these squads that are getting a little too much hype.
As for those last three winless teams — the Bengals, Jaguars and Titans — we may need to bet them one more time in a final, last-ditch Kitchen Sink spot in Week 4.
Let's get to the NFL picks, with a handful of fun sprinkles on long shots and escalators in Week 4.
NFL Week 4 Picks
Jaguars vs. Texas Pick Against Spread
No matter how ugly the Jaguars looked on Monday night against the Bills, this is just a great buy-low spot in a division game against an overrated Texans squad. Division underdogs of 6.5 or more are 88-58-2 ATS (60%) over the first five weeks of the season.
The Texans were this past summer's darling sleeper but have yet to live up to the hype. They rank 26th in Offensive DVOA — in the bottom quarter of the league in both rushing and passing — and sophomore QB C.J. Stroud has struggled to find a rhythm. He ranks 28th in Success Rate and 31st in negative play rate, a Patton Analytics stat that rates Stroud at 13.5% likely to take a sack or a turnover on a dropback.
There's also a key matchup in our favor here featuring Stroud.
On Monday night, we saw Josh Allen slice up this Jags defense. DC Ryan Nielsen implements more man coverage than any other team — over 50% of Jacksonville's snaps so far — and Allen has been elite against man in his career and got anything he wanted on this outmatched secondary.
Stroud, though, is the exact opposite. He was elite against zone as a rookie, ranking 1st in QBR and 89th percentile in PFF grades, but he struggled mightily against man at 27th in QBR and 17th percentile in PFF grades.
History tells us this is a great spot to buy low on a Jaguars team no one wants any part of. Winless teams facing non-undefeated winning teams from Week 4 forward are 62% ATS, and teams on the road after failing to cover by 24+ points are also 62% ATS. From Week 3 forward, an underdog that lost by 35+ in its previous game is 69% ATS, including 49-14-2 ATS as a 'dog of four or more.
This has been the season of the underdog, and we're getting three free points on a line that moved much too far since opening — despite the Texans getting beaten almost as soundly as the Jaguars last weekend.
Those underdogs have been winning too, not just covering — and road 'dogs of 6-to-6.5 points are especially profitable on the moneyline at over 30% ROI the past two decades.
Trevor Lawrence is on an eight-game losing streak since Thanksgiving, but six of Jacksonville's wins last season came by double digits, and 11 of Lawrence's 20 career wins are by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 11.8 points. Six of Houston's nine losses since the start of last season are by double digits, by an average of 19.3 points.
Place the majority of your bet on Jaguars +6.5 for the cover, but sprinkle an alt Jags -9.5 line at +830 (FanDuel) and let's see if another one of these long underdogs can pull off a double-digit win.
Bengals vs. Panthers Pick Against Spread
This line is just a ridiculous overreaction to last week's results.
That Panthers game wasn't just a team at 0-2 — that was a Franchise Kitchen Sink moment with Carolina saving itself from the brink against the woebegone Raiders. Even so, I wonder if that result was more about Las Vegas, already on the brink itself, calling out players for "business decisions" and thinking about a QB change just three weeks into the season.
As for the Bengals, everyone watched them lose on Monday night in embarrassing fashion, unable to get a single defensive stop and losing as over a touchdown favorite for the second time this season.
Just like that, Cincinnati is 0-3, everyone's left them for dead, and a line that was Bengals -7.5 on Sunday morning has dropped past multiple key numbers and moved by over a field goal.
The truth is that these teams might be exactly what they were a year ago. Check out the DVOA rankings through three weeks versus where these teams finished in 2023.
- 2023: Panthers offense #31, Panthers defense #25, Bengals offense #11, Bengals defense #23
- 2024: Panthers offense #31, Panthers defense #21, Bengals offense #5, Bengals defense #24
Carolina still isn't any good, and we already knew Cincinnati's defense wasn't great, but the offense is still as terrific as ever. The Bengals didn't lose because of offense on Monday, nor against the Chiefs.
Joe Burrow has settled in, Tee Higgins is back and there's little reason to think the Bengals shouldn't hang a fat number on this outmatched Panthers defense that's missing its best player (Derrick Brown) for the season.
Everyone loves a good Andy Dalton revenge game, but there's an excellent chance last week was as good as it gets for this Panthers offense against a defense that was actively quitting on plays mid-game. Cincinnati is vulnerable to explosive plays but Carolina lacks game-breakers — now Adam Thielen is out injured too.
Burrow is 14-7-1 ATS after a loss, including 79% ATS on the road — and that includes 1-0 ATS this season in that Chiefs game, even despite this frustrating 0-3 Bengals start.
This line is all wrong. Cincinnati will finally get its first win on Sunday.
Broncos vs. Jets Player Props
This shapes us an ugly one, with a total below 40 and both teams fairly run heavy. This is one of those games that could already be near wrapping up when Scott Hansen sends the more interesting ones into the Witching Hour on NFL RedZone.
Both defenses have been good. Denver has impressed, especially in its win last week, and the Jets have rebounded nicely after that Week 1 embarrassment against the 49ers.
Both defenses rank in the top half of the league by DVOA. I like the Jets to take care of business here — they're a teaser leg I like this week, along with the Chiefs in a similar spot or Bills +2.5 on the road — but I am a bit concerned about the offense.
New York just doesn't have many weapons outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and Denver's defense is suited particularly well to taking away one of those weapons. That's because the Broncos have Patrick Surtain, one of the league's top corners, and one of the few corners who shadow the opponent's top WR all game.
Surtain has had good success so far this season. Just take a look at the top wideout on the opposing team shadowed by Surtain so far. DK Metcalf had three catches for 29 yards on four targets, George Pickens had 2/29 on four targets and Mike Evans had 2/17 for three targets. Not one of them hit 30 yards or topped four targets. Surtain is erasing them.
Wilson is getting a good number of targets but averaging just five catches a game — and many of his receptions are short. He only has four catches this season of at least 10 yards and only one longer than 16.
Wilson is averaging 50 yards per game, and though he's gone over this line in two of the three games, he did so just barely at 57 and 60 yards. If Surtain limits Wilson's looks and opportunities, he should go safely under this receiving yards total as long as we escape one long catch.
Vikings vs. Packers Pick Against Spread
I stared at Packers -2.5 all week, waiting for Jordan Love news to pull the trigger. Love remains questionable but it certainly seems like he'll play, and maybe this is just a bit of division rivalry gamesmanship.
A month ago, everyone everywhere thought Green Bay was clearly better than Minnesota. Why are bettors so quickly throwing that prior out now?
The Packers have been really good! Despite two games with a backup QB that wasn't even on the roster in the preseason — plus one on an ice rink in Brazil — Green Bay's offense has been outstanding. It ranks third in DVOA, top seven in both rushing and passing, and head coach Matt LaFleur has been cooking with his play calling and strategy.
New DC Jeff Hafley's defense is quietly coming around as well, ranked top 12 by DVOA and finally making some big aggressive plays and living up to the collection of talent.
Minnesota's defense has certainly been impressive, as much as any, but it helps playing Daniel Jones and then back-to-back Shanahan offenses, where the defense has such a long time to get comfortable against a similar attack.
The Vikings have yet to play a single snap from behind all season, which means Brian Flores' guys can play the way he wants, pinning their ears back and bringing pressure on pass downs. That works well when protecting a lead, and it works better against bad QBs and system guys — Love is neither of those things.
He demolished the blitz in his first season as a starter, ranking second against the blitz by PFF grades last year with 12 TDs and just one interception in that spot. He has the arm talent and the decision-making skills to pick a compromised defense apart — especially since Green Bay's pass blocking has been outstanding so far.
It's great that the Vikings have not had to play from behind yet, but it also means we haven't truly seen this team yet. We just saw how that played out with the Saints a week ago, as New Orleans looked like a totally different animal when its first choice didn't work and Derek Carr had to play out of structure and without a big lead.
Are we sure Sam Darnold is good now? The guy who hasn't been good at any point in his career, who's also 38% ATS outdoors in his career and bad in windy conditions he may see in Green Bay, is just magically good now because he took care of business a couple times while protecting a big lead?
This is a good opportunity to sell high on a Vikings team getting peak dollars right now at the books. Minnesota has been impressive, but Green Bay's wins the last two weeks were arguably the biggest wins of the season by any team so far.
This rivalry tends to be close, with the teams splitting the last four season series, but the individual games aren't always so close. Five straight Vikings-Packers games have ended with a margin of at least 14 points for the victor.
Let's split up our bet into a few aggressive ways to bet the Packers here.
First, we'll put a quarter-unit on Green Bay -9.5 at +300 (FanDuel) and hope the Packers win by double digits. But if we like the Packers, we should also strongly consider a bet on them to win the NFC North at +340 (DraftKings).
How about one step further?
MVP consistently goes to a great QB on a great team. Malik Willis may have quietly saved Love's MVP stock these last two weeks.
If Love plays well and the Packers are a top-two seed in December, no one's going to remember Love missing two September games. I already bet Love at +6600 to win MVP earlier this week, but he's still a bargain at +6000 (ESPN Bet). He can win this. The Packers are that good.
Commanders vs. Cardinals Player Props
I looked long and hard at the over in this one. I considered the over on the Lookahead and Hot Read and still lean that direction even at 50.5.
Jayden Daniels and Washington have scored on every drive in two consecutive games, and both of these teams are surprisingly ranked in the top 10 by Offensive DVOA. Arizona was my worst-ranked defense coming into the season, and Washington ranks dead last on that side of the ball so far by DVOA.
These passing offenses should light up the scoreboard and find the end zone early and often — but 50 points is a tough ask for an over. Sometimes there's other ways to play an over, like the guy most likely to find the end zone in a game that could easily see five to seven touchdowns.
We played this angle a week ago with Ja'Marr Chase against this same Washington defense and were rewarded with an easy score in the opening minutes. Chase finished with six catches for 118 yards and two scores, adding to the list of great WR lines against the Commanders already this season: Malik Nabers 10/127/1, Mike Evans 5/61/2, Chris Godwin 8/83/1. That's an average line of 97 yards and 1.5 TDs.
Remember when everyone panicked about Marvin Harrison Jr. after a one-catch, four-yard Week 1 performance? He's caught nine balls for 194 yards and three scores in two games since, and he has over half of Arizona's receiving TDs on the season.
Nothing new for MHJ, who finished top five in the nation in receiving TDs each of his past two seasons at Ohio State, with at least one in 10 of his final 11 games.
Harrison also had multiple TDs in four of those games, plus now one of his three games as a pro — and we already saw multi-TD games by both Chase and Evans against this terrible Washington secondary.
I make Harrison an odds-on favorite to find the end zone in a high-scoring affair so I love getting him at +125. Let's sprinkle 2+ TDs at +950 (FanDuel) in case he has another big game.
Bills vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay
This Sunday night game should be awesome. This is a playoff preview featuring the two best offenses in the NFL by DVOA, with both defenses top 10 as well.
We've really only had one meeting between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson with both playing MVP-caliber football. I'm eyeing rushing overs for both since both tend to save their bodies for the biggest games and will likely take a few extra runs and hits in this one. Jackson over 9.5 rushing attempts looks particularly attainable.
I have no idea who will actually win the game, though. Both teams are really good and this should be close all the way and could go either direction.
Rather than predict a winner, let's just bet the narrative.
What do we know about the Ravens? They consistently get out ahead but struggle to protect leads late, already blowing one such game against the Raiders.
And the Bills are a team that you can never count out. Buffalo hasn't lost by more than one score in 44 games — making Buffalo a pretty strong teaser play here — and the Bills have made late-season comeback pushes too.
For his career, Jackson has been a first-half god. The Ravens are 65% ATS in the first half with Jackson, a remarkable number for someone with this many games. Likewise, Allen has been virtually unstoppable in the second half, at 65% ATS against the second-half spread.
Let's bet the narrative and bet the trends.
If the Ravens get out ahead, for many teams, they might be likely to hold or build a lead in the second half. That would typically make this 1H/2H angle negatively correlated, as I think the books are treating it here with the odds they're giving on this SGP.
But given their history and the Bills' penchant for keeping games close, I think there's actually positive correlation. The Ravens take a 4+ point lead into halftime — say 14-10 or 20-13 — and the Bills push back to keep it close and make it a game late, maybe even win.
Will Buffalo actually win the game? I have no idea!
The beauty of this bet is we don't even care. We'll just bet the narrative and hope the Ravens lead early and the Bills push back late.
Week 5 Jets vs. Vikings Moneyline Pick
Shall we head to London for the first international game of the year?
The Lookahead is all about getting ahead of line movement first and foremost, and this is a value grab as much as anything.
The Jets were around -200 on the season lookahead number for this game but have seen their odds halved here with Minnesota's hot start. But what will this line look like after this Sunday's games?
The Jets are favored by over a touchdown against the Broncos; New York is expected to roll against Bo Nix on the road.
The Vikings are road underdogs in Green Bay, and you just read about how I'm fading Minnesota. If the Vikings struggle or the Jets get an easy one, this line only moves in one direction. Already, books appear uncertain here, with either team favored by -1 or -1.5 depending on the book.
I think the Jets are favored after this weekend's results, which makes a -104 shot at the moneyline pretty tasty. Aaron Rodgers is 14-7 SU against Minnesota as a favorite, and it's been profitable betting the favorite in non-Jaguars international games, where favorites are 24-9 ATS and have won 10 of the last 11 outright.
On a neutral field, favorites cover and win — makes sense!
We'll surely hear plenty about a Sam Darnold revenge game, but there will be no confusion about which team has the better QB. Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like his old self, and he has the ability to carve up this Minnesota secondary if Brian Flores' pressure doesn't get home. Darnold and Minnesota's offense are the clear weak link of the four units.
I don't think we'll get anything close to this price after the weekend, so I'll grab the Jets ML now at -104.
