NFL Week 4 Data-Driven Picks, Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Broncos vs. Bears
By Billy Ward
This game is tied for third in terms of Vegas total in Week 4, but there’s reason to think it could turn into a shootout. Both teams are 0-3, with the Broncos coming off a historic drubbing by the Dolphins.
However, Denver’s struggles have largely been on the defensive side of the ball. Even before the Dolphins hung 70 on them, the Broncos were averaging 26 points allowed per game. They're also last in DVOA against the pass.
This might be the only matchup where we’ll have some optimism around Justin Fields and the Bears, who’ve been bad on both defense and offense this season. While Chicago struggled to move the ball, it's faced above-average defenses by DVOA so far.
More importantly, the Bears rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, and they are the only team outside of Denver to surrender over 100 points already. Russell Wilson and the Broncos' passing attack should carve this defense to shreds as they look to make a statement.
It ultimately comes down to whether Fields can play at an NFL level, something I'm somewhat optimistic about. Chicago gave him a season-high 11 rushing attempts last week, and he’s had explosive games in the past when unleashed on the ground.
The other part of this bet is relying on the Dolphins-Bills (the highest total on the board) game to disappoint. Last season, they had a 61-point game and a 40-point game, so there’s a strong chance.
Divisional games also tend to be lower scoring, which helps the cause here.
I’d bet this down to +800.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+1000)
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Dolphins vs. Bills
By Nick Giffen
The Dolphins and Bills set up nicely for overtime potential with both teams’ potent offenses allowing ample opportunity to come back should either trail by one or even two scores late.
Both teams feature coaching staffs that tend to pass up on 2-point conversions. The Bills and Dolphins ranked in the bottom 10 last year in 2-point-attempt rate, and neither team has attempted one yet so far in 2023.
Each team has a kicker who's above league average at making extra points, though the Dolphins’ Jason Sanders dipped below average for the first time in his five-year career last year.
By having a very low 2-point attempt rate and successful kickers, along with a projected close game, this game has a solid chance of ending up at a key score differential of 3, 7, 10 or 14 late. That’s ideal for forcing overtime with two very strong offenses.
Altogether, that’s why my model has +1180 as fair odds for overtime instead of the +1400 that FanDuel is offering.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1400)
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Ravens vs. Browns
By Billy Ward
Both the Ravens vs. Browns and Rams vs. Colts games fall in a similar range, with spreads of less than two points. As we’ve discussed in the past, the spread is the more correlated variable with whether or not this prop hits.
Ignoring the total, we’ve historically seen the "no" side of this bet hit at a 43.6% clip, good for true odds of +129. However, that includes games with big totals, which are somewhat more likely to see either team score three straight times.
The Browns-Ravens game has a total below 40, and those games have a better than 50% success rate on the "no" side of the prop even without considering the spread. Put both of those together and the fair odds in that one are probably closer to -110 or so.
The higher total in Rams-Colts means we don’t have quite as much of an edge, but games with a total between 44 and 46 and a spread of two or less should have a fair value around +125.
Considering that most books have this spread at 1, it’s a reasonable assumption that the fair odds should be even lower – though the sample size gets too small when we’re getting that specific to know for sure.
Either way, the likeliest outcome here is splitting these bets, which I’m happy to do at the odds offered. I could see an argument for just betting the AFC North showdown, but the better option is to tail both at plus-money and bank on getting one.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+140)
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Rams vs. Colts
By Billy Ward
See analysis for this bet above.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+135)
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Broncos vs. Bears
By Sean Koerner
Snaps are trending in the right direction for the rookie running back out of Texas.
With D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch in back-to-back games, the Bears backfield has become more of a 50-50 split between Johnson and Khalil Herbert.
Johnson saw a bit more early down usage instead of passing-down work last week, which is ideal for this market.
The Bears haven’t been able to run the ball much this year as they’ve lost all of their games by at least 10 points. Despite being 3-point underdogs to the Broncos, this could be the best game script they’ve had to date in terms of being able to run the ball.
The Broncos just allowed 441 yards to Miami’s running backs and will now be without LB Josey Jewell, who is one of their best run defenders.
I’m projecting Johnson’s median closer to 38.5 rushing yards and I think his expected volume and efficiency gives us a fairly high floor.
Pick: Roschon Johnson Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
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Cardinals vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
Brock Purdy has only thrown four interceptions in 11 career starts, including the playoffs, which is why this line is so inflated. However, Purdy has been a bit lucky in his career.
Purdy’s turnover-worthy play rate (TWP%) of 3.5% last year and 3.7% this year suggest a quarterback that’s right around league average. That’s backed up by his bad-ball rate (BB%), which at 11.38%, per The Power Rank, puts him right in line with league average as well.
Thus, we should expect his interception rate to also hover around league average, but it’s been anything but that. His four interceptions in 324 attempts equates to a 1.2% INT rate compared to an NFL average around 2.3%.
Now he faces a Cardinals defense that has been surprisingly potent at forcing bad balls.
Their 23 passes defended on 108 pass attempts faced equates to a BB% of 21.3%, which is nearly double the league average. Sure, we can expect that to come down a bit, but it’s certainly an early indication that Arizona may be better than average at this metric.
That’s especially true considering they’ve faced Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott, two QBs whose long-term BB% hover around league average.
Sam Howell is the other QB, and while he’s quite poor, his BB% of nearly 15% isn’t enough to pull the overall average of three QBs up too high. Considering Howell had the fewest attempts of the three QBs Arizona has faced, that rings even more true.
If Brock Purdy’s BB% and TWP% are any indication, then this Arizona defense stands a good shot of picking off one of his passes.
While I have him around +120 to throw an INT based off a 28.5 attempt projection, that’s a long way off from +280.
Pick: Brock Purdy Interception (+280)
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