Each week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite spread picks for Sunday's slate.
After a 2-1 mark last week, my season-long record on these improved to 7-4 (+2.6 units). For Week 4, I'll detail my three favorite sides — all short favorites — starting with an early kickoff in London.
Jacksonville has looked awful to start the year. I won't argue that. However, I'm confidently buying low after back-to-back defeats, with the most recent one coming at home in a shocking 20-point blowout loss to the Texans.
First off, the loss last week was a bit flukey due to a few horrific special teams gaffes by the Jags, who actually finished with seven more first downs and 38 more total yards.
Additionally, Trevor Lawrence has been off to start the season, but inconsistency has been a theme for the Clemson signal-caller throughout his career. It won't shock me in the least to see him bounce back against an attackable Atlanta secondary, especially since the Falcons can't really generate pressure off the edge to exploit the pass-blocking issues at right tackle.
Jacksonville has only converted 1-of-6 fourth downs and 29.7% of its third downs — among the lowest marks in the league. Last season, it finished in the top 10 at north of 41% and succeeded on more than half of its fourth-down attempts. There's a lot of variance in those late-down conversion rates, especially over small sample sizes, so I'd expect major positive regression in that department.
Meanwhile, Atlanta suffered a beat down in Detroit against a shorthanded Lions squad. I really haven't been that impressed with the Falcons, who started the year with a pair of wins at home over an undermanned Green Bay group and a rookie quarterback making his first career start in the opener.
The quarterback play has been uninspiring to say the least, as Desmond Ridder has looked pretty poor in his second season under center. Among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays, Ridder ranks 26th in EPA+CPOE composite at -0.006. The only four quarterbacks with a lower number are Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett and a one-legged Joe Burrow.
Head coach Arthur Smith and the rest of the Atlanta offensive staff clearly don't have much faith in Ridder based on the play-calling. Even if Ridder was playing better, this is still a rush-first offense, which plays right into the hands of the Jacksonville defense, which can hold up against the run by design.
Through three games, the Jaguars defense ranks in the top three in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush, and they should be able to load the box even more this week.
In order to beat this Jacksonville defense, you have to throw the ball downfield to exploit a pitiful pass defense that ranks 23rd in EPA per Dropback. I simply don't trust Ridder to take advantage of that deficiency.
I'll buy the Jaguars in their home away from home in a favorable matchup with the significantly more capable quarterback.
Trending: After losing outright as more than a field-goal favorite, teams that are favored by less than a touchdown away from home the following week have gone 99-60-3 ATS (62.3%), covering by just under four points per game. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in international games.
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The Dolphins offense is undoubtedly incredible, as we all saw last week when they almost broke the NFL scoring record against the Broncos. I can't offer enough praise for Mike McDaniel, a brilliant play-schemer who's utilizing motion in revolutionary ways in response to the adjustments defenses made late last season.
Even more impressively, Miami put up 70 points without Jaylen Waddle and stud left tackle Terron Armstead.
That said, let's slow our roll a bit before we start planning the Super Bowl parade. The Dolphins have exploded against two of the worst defenses in the league this year in the Chargers and Broncos. Even Sam Howell and the Washington offense, which the Bills just completely neutered, scored 32 points over the final three quarters against the Broncos' Swiss-cheese unit.
However, the Patriots did enjoy success in slowing the Fins down a bit by taking away the explosive play with three-high safety looks. I didn't love that game plan from Bill Belichick because I didn't think the Patriots offense could keep up, so I thought New England needed to force Tagovailoa into a mistake or two.
In fairness, it almost worked, which is why he will be in the Hall of Fame — a place I could only get in by visiting.
Well, Sean McDermott — a superb defensive schemer in his own right — obviously watched that film and will almost certainly mirror some of those looks to force Miami to methodically move down the field without making a mistake. He also has three full games of film to devise a plan of attack for slowing down this new-look McDaniel offense. Plus, Buffalo actually has an offense capable of matching scores with Miami.
It doesn't hurt to have one of the best defenses in the league (second in EPA per Play) with a lock-down corner and a pair of savvy safeties on the back end. As they showed last week, the Bills are capable of generating pressure with their front four (pressuring Howell on nearly 50% of his dropbacks) without blitzing, which is key against this Miami offense. Despite a bottom-three blitz percentage, Buffalo is one of only four teams with a pressure rate of at least 30%, along with the Browns, Eagles and Steelers.
McDermott has had the edge over Tagovailoa in their previous head-to-head matchups. In three meetings against Buffalo, Tagovailoa has thrown only one touchdown to four interceptions, while averaging fewer than 200 passing yards with a 59.8 QB Rating. For reference, his third-lowest QB rating against any single opponent is 80.3.
While all of the talk has been about Miami, have we forgotten about the Bills? All they have done is go out there and dominate their past two opponents by a combined score of 75-13.
The defense has dominated and Josh Allen has looked splendid. Most importantly, the offensive line has looked much better, which is really the key to Buffalo's season. That performance last week against one of the best defensive fronts in the league had to fill Bills fans with joy.
Lastly, the Dolphins' special teams remains a mess. After finishing with a bottom-five DVOA ranking in 2022, they are last in that category through three games. It's a tiny sample size, but the trend line is not good when you include last season.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has one of the stronger special teams units in the league after finishing first last year. That could make all the difference in what should be a super competitive game between two of the best teams in the league.
I project this spread closer to 3.5, so I am happy to buy the discount after what Miami did last weekend.
Ultimately, in a matchup of two elite offenses, I trust the Buffalo elite defense to get one or two more key stops over the below-average Miami defense that ranks last in Success Rate, excluding garbage time.
Saturday update: I bet this earlier in the week before safety Jordan Poyer was ruled out. He’s important to that defense and for everything that McDermott wants to do in terms of scheme. He also seems to make a huge play in these big games and especially matters against this explosive offense. I still like the Bills but not as much at +3, so be sure to get 2.5, even up to -120. This game should be a shootout, and I still trust the Bills' defense and special teams to make one or two more key plays.
Trending: The Dolphins beat the Broncos by 50 last week. Following a win of more than 35 points, teams have gone just 35-53-4 (39.8%) ATS since 2003. Additionally, teams that are 3-0 ATS (like Miami) have gone just 36-48-2 (42.9%) ATS, including 8-15-1 (34.8%) as an underdog. Over the last 10 seasons, undefeated SU and ATS teams have gone 0-4 ATS in Week 4 as an underdog, with the Dolphins suffering three of those four losses — most recently last season at Cincinnati.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
For the third time in four weeks, I'm betting the Browns. While I believe Cleveland boasts the best defense in the NFL, I still don't think the market has fully bought in just yet.
New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has addressed the communication issues that plagued the Browns' secondary throughout 2022. He also has brought much-needed aggression with heavier use of pressure packages.
Plus, Cleveland just has a significantly more talented unit after adding bulk to the interior to fix the run defense and Juan Thornhill at safety to strengthen the back-end of a secondary that already had a plus group of cornerbacks.
How good has the defense been? It ranks No. 1 by a mile in EPA per play and Success Rate at -0.393 and 25.8%, respectively. To put the latter number into context, the second-best defense (Buffalo) has held opponents to a 38.6% Success Rate, while the 2022 leader finished at 39.9%. And in 39 opponent drives this season, only one has reached the red zone, which came after a miraculous 4th and 4 catch last week by Chris Moore.
Oh, and that drive ended with no points after Myles Garrett sacked Ryan Tannehill, causing time to run out in the first half.
Without two flukey Pittsburgh defensive touchdowns, the Browns would easily be undefeated and more people would be buying in to the hype. From an eye-test perspective, this defense is playing with the confidence and swagger I've only seen from historically dominant groups.
Speaking of Garrett, he's playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level. He and his compatriots should live in the backfield throughout the game against a Baltimore offense that's working through injuries and still trying to find rhythm under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
That likely won't end well for Lamar Jackson, who ranks 32nd among 34 quarterbacks (min. 10 drop backs) in QB Rating when under pressure.
Just like last week, my Ravens look a tad overvalued after accounting for all of the key injuries they are dealing with on both sides of the ball. Despite those issues, the Ravens are 2-1, but one of those victories came against a rookie quarterback making his first career start with a backup offensive line on the road, while the other came against a hobbled Joe Burrow.
The secondary is especially vulnerable, which could spell doom after Deshaun Watson finally seemed to figure it out last week, finishing 27-of-33 for 289 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. That should give him and the offense a much-needed boost of confidence to attack downfield once again, making the loss of Nick Chubb less vital in this particular matchup.
For what it's worth, I actually prefer the moneyline even with a spread of less than a field goal in a game I think will be super low-scoring. Points could come at a premium in this division showdown.
Personally, I parlayed the Browns moneyline with the 49ers to get around even money.
Saturday note: I would not play this heavily now given the uncertainty with Watson. I do believe he will play, but who knows how his shoulder will hold up? The Browns can still win this game with a hobbled Watson because of that defense, especially with an undermanned Ravens squad, but there’s a lot of uncertainty.
Trending: Lamar Jackson is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of less than three points or an underdog.
