NFL Predictions Today: Picks Against the Spread | Week 7
For Dolphins vs Eagles best bets, head over to Dolphins vs Eagles Best Bets: Player Props, Spread Picks for Sunday Night Football.
| Rams -3 vs Steelers |
| Chargers +5.5 vs Chiefs |
| Ravens -3 vs Lions |
| Patriots +7.5 vs Bills |
Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions today.
For reference, I went 2-1 last week (thanks to a very fortunate Bengals cover that I didn't deserve), bringing my season-long record in this file to 12-8 (60.0%) for +3.3 units. For my best expert picks against the spread in Week 7, we have two more bets for today, after our first two bets got off to good starts.
Here are our NFL predictions for today in Week 7, featuring an underdog and a favorite in our picks against the spread.
To many, this may look like an appealing opportunity to back the Steelers coming off a bye week in an underdog role that Mike Tomlin has thrived in. I personally don't see it that way, and think there's a better chance Pittsburgh comes out flat against a non-conference opponent after a huge win over Baltimore.
Pittsburgh is a bad football team with one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking last in Success Rate. Without some defensive magic at home (and Baltimore drops), it'd be sitting at 1-5 on the season and this line would be over a field goal.
Keep in mind, the Raiders also laid a field goal at home against Pittsburgh earlier this season. Now I can lay the same price with Los Angeles, who I have power rated as almost a field goal better than Las Vegas? Yes, please.
Neither team has an elite defense by any stretch, with both grading out around league average by my numbers. Admittedly, I'm surprised at how well the Rams defense has played given the overall talent level outside of Aaron Donald. However, defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has done an outstanding job against one of the three hardest schedules of opposing offenses.
They both feature one of the best defensive players in the league up front, but have very vulnerable secondaries if Donald or T.J. Watt (or Alex Highsmith) struggle to get home. The big difference is Los Angeles has a much more potent and reliable offense that can take advantage, especially with Cooper Kupp back in the mix. I simply trust Matthew Stafford and that receiving corps to make more plays — and fewer mistakes — than Kenny Pickett in Matt Canada's poorly run offense.
Los Angeles is dealing with injuries at the running back position, but I actually am pretty high on Zach Evans, who should fit well in L.A.'s zone running scheme. He and a few others will likely form a running back committee that should have success against a Pittsburgh defense that can be gashed on the ground without Cam Heyward in the middle. That will set up effective play-action opportunities, leading to a number of explosive plays against a vulnerable coverage group that has allowed the eighth-most explosive plays on the season. For what it's worth, the L.A. offense has the eighth most.
Give me the much better offense at home laying a field goal.
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Trending: Mike Tomlin is just 34-41-1 ATS (45.3%) on the road against teams with a non-winning record; he's the fifth-least profitable head coach in this spot over the past 20 seasons, per Action Labs. That includes a 1-5 ATS mark after a bye week.
On the surface, this looks like a horrid spot for the Chargers, who will hit the road on a short week to face a Chiefs team that has extended rest after playing on Thursday. However, let's bust a few popular narratives you'll hear about:
- Andy Reid is only 10-13 ATS with extended rest during his time with Kansas City.
- Teams on a short week have actually gone 45-35-1 ATS (56.25%) against opponents with extended rest (10-plus days).
Since Justin Herbert began his career with the Chargers, these teams have played nothing but close games. The Chiefs have won four of six head-to-head clashes, but those wins came by three (thrice) and six points, with the latter coming in overtime. That means Los Angeles has never trailed by more than a field goal at the end of regulation in any of the six meetings. As a result, Herbert owns a 5-1 ATS mark against Kansas City, which likely would sit at 6-0 if K.C. didn't win a coin toss.
That checks out when you consider the Chiefs struggle to win by margin as a favorite and the Chargers do nothing but play close games — 20 of L.A.'s last 25 contests have been decided by one possession, including all three losses this season against the Cowboys, Dolphins and Titans (in overtime) by a combined eight points.
The Kansas City defense is vastly improved thanks to a number of successful draft classes, but the Chiefs have benefited from a schedule that has included Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. You can still run on this defense, which isn't an elite unit by any stretch.
Meanwhile, the offense remains a work in progress with issues along the offensive line and an underwhelming receiving corps. On the season, Mahomes has an equal number (nine) of Big-Time Throws and Turnover-Worthy Plays. For reference, he finished with a 2-1 ratio last season (38-19).
I think this is too many points (especially with a falling total) in a divisional matchup that has resulted in nothing but close games in recent seasons. Los Angeles simply has too much talent on offense to not be able to keep this close against a Chiefs team still working out a number of kinks.
Plus, more times than not, I tend to find value on the Chargers away from their own stadium, at which they have no home-field advantage. Consequently, Herbert boasts an impressive 10-4 (71.4%) ATS record as a road dog, including 7-1 when catching over a field goal.
This likely plays out like almost every Chargers game and comes down to the final few minutes. I'll happily take the points with an offense that I trust to get in the backdoor late if necessary.
Trending: Patrick Mahomes' ATS splits are almost identical to Lamar Jackson's. Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) as an underdog or favorite of three or less. However, he is just 30-36-1 ATS (45.5%) as a favorite of more than a field goal, including 18-27 (40%) over the past four seasons, which is the exact career record of Jackson in that role.
The Lions, who have jumped out to a 5-1 start both straight-up (SU) and ATS, are undoubtedly a real contender in the NFC. However, I believe this is the perfect time to sell high on Detroit, which I believe has hit the peak of its market value after four straight victories.
Whenever you start to hear chatter around a team winning the conference, to go along with awards hype (coach of year, MVP, etc.), it generally means it's time to sell. Look no further than the past three weeks, when we saw Miami fall immediately after destroying Denver by 50, Buffalo losing after routing those same Dolphins and the 49ers getting upset by PJ Walker following a complete burial of the Cowboys. Teams are never as good or as bad as they appear on a week-to-week basis in the National Football League (except the Panthers).
After four straight victories, I believe we have hit that pinnacle with the Lions. And let's be honest, those four wins came against a banged up Green Bay squad, a winless Carolina team playing without its entire secondary, Atlanta and Tampa. I have that quartet all rated below average in my most recent power ratings — only Tampa currently sports a winning record. If you watched that game against the Bucs, Baker Mayfield missed multiple wide-open touchdown passes that would've significantly changed the complexion of that game.
It's fair to say I'm just not as sold on Detroit as others seem to be after victories against Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder and Jordan Love. I still have major questions about the Lions defense after facing one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses. I believe the vastly improved run defense is legitimate. Led by Alim McNeil in the middle, Detroit has a nice rotation of big bodies that can eat up blocks, freeing up room for linebackers to make plays against opposing ground games.
However, I still have major doubts in regards to the pass defense, which has faced nothing but clown car quarterbacks since getting carved up by Geno Smith in a 38-31 home loss. As I mentioned previously, the Bucs had open receivers running all over the field due to multiple coverage busts, but Mayfield simply couldn't connect.
After some key injuries, the secondary consists of Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs on the outside with Will Harris manning the slot. That's a substantially below-average group even if Brian Branch returns this week. Meanwhile, the safety duo of Kerby Joseph, who is much better against the run, and Tracy Walker doesn't inspire much confidence. Additionally, the linebackers I mentioned previously have some coverage deficiencies that can be exploited by competent passing attacks.
The Ravens offense is so close to breaking out after finally getting a number of key players back from injury. Two weeks ago, severe drop issues cost them against Pittsburgh, followed by red-zone woes against Tennessee — but don't forget this group put up 28 on a Cleveland defense that has suffocated every other opponent on its schedule.
Schematically, this is also a great matchup for Jackson against a defense that has blitzed at the third-lowest rate. Just take a look at Jackson's splits when blitzed vs. not to see why that should make him salivate to go up against this stop unit that also plays a high frequency of coverage types that he thrives against.
Additionally, Jackson's legs (and Mark Andrews) should give Detroit's linebackers fits. He's also much better equipped to handle the potential windy conditions than Jared Goff, who has struggled a bit outdoors throughout his career. For reference, Goff has gone 27-13 (67.5%) ATS when playing indoors compared to just 33-31 (51.5%) outdoors.
With a few games under their belts, the players who returned from injury are now fully assimilated back into the offense, which has also faced one of the five hardest schedules of opposing defenses. I believe they break out against a Detroit secondary that hasn't been tested in a month.
For what it's worth, I also do like over 42. Similar to Detroit, Baltimore's defense is a bit overvalued after facing an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses helped by injuries and weather. To date, the Ravens have faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill and C.J. Stroud.
The Baltimore run defense is real, but the pass rush and secondary have holes. As a result, I expect both teams to utilize much pass-heavier game plans, especially in the red zone, which has been a missing element for both squads this season. It also just makes sense for Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to go that route with the injury to David Montgomery.
Even with the wind, the Lions should be able to get to at least 20, which they've done in 14 straight contests, including eight in a row outdoors. Meanwhile, I believe the Ravens come out with an aggressive game plan and exploit this Detroit back end in a favorable matchup, which should get them to somewhere in the ballpark of 27-30.
Trending: Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog or favorite of three or less, covering by eight points per game, including 12-1 (92.3%) against teams with a winning record and 10-0 when the spread sits between +3 and -3. In comparison, he's just 18-27 (40.0%) against the number as a favorite of more than a FG.
I apologize in advance for this bet, and I wouldn't blame you for skipping this section. I didn't want to do this after what I've seen from New England in recent weeks, but I just can't get to this number. Therefore, I'm going to do what I often do when betting the NFL and attempt to catch a falling knife by buying low on a bad Pats team.
When betting the NFL, you simply can't let yourself get scared off a team due to poor past results — that's usually when you will find the most value. I simply believe the market has overcorrected on New England in a short period of time.
Just two weeks ago, the Patriots closed as two-point home favorites against the Saints. This line implies Buffalo is 10.5 points better than New Orleans on a neutral site. Yes, I've had to downgrade the Patriots, who should have covered last week against the Raiders, but I have the delta between those two teams close to a touchdown.
Since Week 2, Sean McDermott's stop unit has lost three key pieces at each level in DaQuon Jones, Matt Milano and Tre White. Not only did all three have All-Pro potential, the drop-off to their replacements is steep. If that wasn't enough, Greg Rousseau, Leonard Floyd, Shaq Lawson, Ed Oliver and Dane Jackson are also dealing with nagging injuries. The run defense remains a weakness and there are now opportunities to attack through the air.
The Patriots are a bad football team right now. Even the special teams have deteriorated under Bill Belichick, which you never used to see in the past. At least the defense is still at least respectable, but even that group has lost a few critical pieces to injury. Meanwhile, the offense is a mess. Mac Jones seems lost, the receivers aren't getting much separation and the offensive line has been a downright disaster.
To illustrate how bad things have gotten up front, PFF has graded 197 offensive linemen with at least 100 snaps. Here's where some of the Patriots rank in pass blocking:
- Calvin Anderson: 179th
- Sidy Sow: 182nd
- Atonio Mafi: 183rd
- Vederian Lowe: 186th
With that level of futility, no quarterback is going to look productive, especially with one of the league's worst receiving corps.
The good news is all four could potentially be on the sidelines this week if the injury situation breaks right for New England, with Riley Reiff and Cole Strange close to returning. If Trent Brown, who has been the only bright spot, and Mike Onwenu can also suit up along with center David Andrews, that would give the Patriots their best starting five up front by a wide margin for the first time in 2023.
Additionally, Buffalo's offense has been completely out of rhythm over the past two games with Josh Allen potentially dealing with soreness that could impact his efficiency.
Lastly, while there's no questioning the Patriots are a bad football team, they have been unlucky in terms of field goals, fourth downs and fumbles, which are three impactful stats with a ton of short-term variance. They are certainly overdue for a few bounces to go their way.
The Patriots could get blown out here, but I'm willing to take that chance on this being the bottom of the market for a team that has at least lost three games by one possession, including a pair at home against two of the league's better teams in Miami and Philadelphia.
Trending: This will likely mark the first time Bill Belichick is a home underdog of more than a touchdown since Tom Brady's first start in 2001.
