Quincy Williams Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists -120 | Play to -140
Jets vs. Giants | 1 p.m. ET
In his third season with the Jets, Quincy Williams has formed a dynamic off-ball linebacker duo with his counterpart, C.J. Mosley. Williams leads the Jets in combined tackles and has cleared this line in six of his last seven games.
In fact, both Williams and Mosley rank among the top 10 in the NFL in tackles per game. The Jets offense's inability to sustain drives also allows opposing offenses to control the time of possession.
The struggling Giants offense has become a premier target for opposing linebacker tackles. Over the last four games, Big Blue has allowed six linebackers to clear this total.
With a strong secondary that’s returning starting cornerback D.J. Reed today, the Jets defense almost funnels the offensive action into both Williams and Mosley. With a heavy dose of short passes and Saquon Barkley in the run game, I have Williams projected at 10 combined tackles today.
Pick: Quincy Williams Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists -120 (Play to -140 | DraftKings)
Elijah Moore Longest Reception Under 17.5 Yards -120 | Play to -140
Browns vs. Seahawks | 4:05 p.m. ET
Elijah Moore has gone under this line in four of his six games. This isn't a coincidence as his average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.4 yards is the shortest of the Browns' three starting wide receivers — Amari Cooper is at 15.7 yards, and Donovan Peoples-Jones is at 11.9.
In terms of deep passes (at least 20 air yards) down the field, Moore’s five targets are third on the Browns behind Cooper and Marquise Goodwin.
The third-year receiver did connect with today’s starting quarterback, PJ Walker on one of those throws last week, but that was in a soft matchup against the Colts secondary.
The Seahawks rank 11th in DVOA against deep passes (per FTN Fantasy) and have only allowed two receivers to clear this line in their last three games.
With last year’s defensive rookie of the year, Tariq Woolen, and one of the favorites for this season’s award, Devon Witherspoon, at cornerback, Seattle has a formidable duo to cover the likes of Cooper and Moore.
I don’t see the upside for the Browns passing offense as a whole today and project Moore’s longest reception to be about 14 yards.
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Pick: Elijah Moore Longest Reception Under 17.5 Yards -120 (Play to -140 | DraftKings)
