Patriots vs Steelers Parlay: Thursday Night Football
For the Week 14 installment of Thursday Night Football, we have an AFC matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.
I put together a two-leg same game parlay for my best way to attack this game.
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Patriots vs. Steelers Parlay (+159; FanDuel)
- Ezekiel Elliott 3+ Receptions
- Diontae Johnson 4+ Receptions
RB Ezekiel Elliott
3+ Receptions
With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out for this game, we can expect Elliott to function as the lead back.
The loss of Stevenson of course affects the running game, but the back also leads the Patriots with 38 receptions. He recorded a catch every 6.6 routes run, which is second on the Patriots to – you guessed it – Elliott, who records a reception every 5.3 routes run.
Whether it’s Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones taking the snaps, the Patriots have remained consistent with a 22% target rate of their running back room this season. I expect that to continue tonight, with Elliott picking up the lion's share of the targets.
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WR Diontae Johnson
4+ Receptions
In the four full games started by Mitch Trubisky last season, Johnson recorded 10, 11, 10 and 12 targets. That’s an absurd 34% target rate for the receiver.
Overall, Johnson has cleared this total in five of his seven full games played this season. And this should serve as a plus matchup for the Toledo product.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Patriots run man coverage at the sixth-highest rate. The Steelers' secondary options in the passing game (tight-end Pat Freiermuth and running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris) all see their target volume dip against man coverage.
The Patriots allow the eighth-most receptions per game to wide receivers this season, and the seventh most targets. I have Johnson projected at eight targets tonight.
