Raiders vs Bills Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Raiders vs. Bills odds are moving on Sunday morning, with Buffalo just a 7.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks.
The Bills have been tipping their hand to tell us how much they love rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and want to use him in a variety of ways. We may just need to listen to them and pay attention to what they want to do with their offense as this player prop may be hiding in plain sight.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Raiders vs. Bills pick.
Raiders vs. Bills
Matchup Analysis
When the Bills selected Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 NFL Draft, people were expecting huge things as Buffalo added another dynamic weapon to its passing game. Kincaid’s debut was underwhelming though, catching four balls for only 26 yards in a loss to the Jets.
Over the offseason, the Bills said they wanted to run more 12-personnel, meaning that they have one running back and two tight ends on the field. They did just that in Week 1. Against the Jets, the Bills ran 62.2% of their plays in 12-personnel. The highest for any team last season was the Chiefs at 43.1%. Both Kincaid and Dawson Knox are going to get plenty of time as Buffalo plans to live in this alignment.
While listed as a tight end, Kincaid is being used as a full-blown receiver. Kincaid ran 38 routes last week. This was the most among rookie tight ends by 12 snaps. It was also third most in the league among all rookies.
Of those 38 routes, Kincaid ran 23 of them from the slot, 13 from out wide and only three as an in-line tight end. Look for the Bills to continue to send Kincaid and Knox onto the field at the same time.
Bet Las Vegas vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
In Week 1, Denver tight ends caught all seven of their targets for 56 yards against this Vegas defense. The 90 catches that Las Vegas allowed to tight ends in 2022 ranked as the sixth most in the league.
In 2022 the Raiders defense allowed 242.9 passing yards per game, which ranked 29th. I’m not worried about the Raiders preventing Kincaid from having a strong game.
The Bills’ offensive performance may have been worrying for some, but with their track record, I have faith in them figuring it out. The Jets have given Josh Allen plenty of issues over the last few years, but he tends to correct against lesser opponents.
Even with their struggles against the Jets, Buffalo still has the sixth-best dropback success rate and 12th-best dropback EPA from Week 1. I think that we will see a “get-right” game here for the Bills offense, and that will involve some strong numbers for Kincaid.
Raiders vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
It may not happen right away, but Kincaid will be one of the focal points of Buffalo's offense by the end of the season. Rookie tight ends can be hard to trust, but this is one of the best prospects at the position that we've seen and I love his fit.
Kincaid has all of the talent to be one of the top tight ends in the league, and through one week, it appears that he will have plenty of opportunity as well.
Most books have Kincaid around 30.5 yards, but you can grab his total at 28.5 at FanDuel. I would take Kincaid all the way up to 38.5 yards in this one.
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