Tyler Lockett Player Prop: Bet for Seahawks-Cowboys
Tyler Lockett Under 4.5 Receptions (-120 | Bet to -135)
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Lockett has stayed under this line in six of 11 games this season. Though he leads the Seahawks in catches, I’m fading the ninth-year pro on his receptions line tonight.
The Cowboys have allowed only six wide receivers to catch at least five passes this season. They’ve held opponents to 9.7 catches per game among the position group, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Cowboys run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. Since taking over as the team’s starting quarterback last season, Geno Smith typically fixates on DK Metcalf when the opponent is in man.
Metcalf has commanded 26 of Smith’s 74 targets against man coverage (35% target rate), per Pro Football Focus. In fact, Lockett’s 15 targets are third on the team, with emerging rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 17 targets pacing the Seahawks after Metcalf.
Besides the individual matchup, the Seahawks are in a tough spot to accrue any sort of volume in the passing game. The Cowboys are allowing their opponents the third-fewest pass attempts per game (29.5) and the second-fewest offensive plays (59.4). The Seahawks already rank last in time of possession as is.
After last week’s disaster in the first half against the 49ers, predominantly in the passing game, it’s easy to see the Seahawks going run heavy to start this one.
I have Lockett projected for six targets and only four catches. I’d play this line down to -135.
Pick: Tyler Lockett Under 4.5 Receptions (-120 at FanDuel) | Play to -135
