Steelers vs Bills Player Props: Josh Allen, Najee Harris, Dalton Kincaid Wild Card Bets
In the table below, you'll find each of Sam Farley's Steelers vs Bills player props for NFL Wild Card Monday. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific Steelers-Bills prop discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Steelers vs Bills
Najee Harris
Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)
Let’s not get it twisted, Harris was bad at the start of the season and it looked liked Jaylen Warren was coming for his job. However, down the stretch, and post-Matt Canada, he has improved as the Steelers have really leaned into the run.
He has a line of 15.5 rushing attempts which is far, far too low. It’s a number he’s covered in four of seven games since Canada was fired but crucially it’s a line that he’s covered comfortably in each of his last three games. In fact across the last two weeks he’s had a total of 53 carries. The team realizes that the run is their best chance of winning games, especially given the reported weather in Buffalo and I believe they’ll run Harris into the ground.
Pick: Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)
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Dalton Kincaid
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It was a slow start to the season for Kincaid, but when Dawson Knox got injured in week 7 and was sent to IR it opened up an opportunity.
With Knox returning it looked to have hit Kincaid’s production, but it’s notable that the team have really featured the former Utah man in the past two weeks. He’s had 15 targets, tied for the Bills lead with Stefon Diggs, and he has rewarded the team with 171 yards.
With the chance for strong winds it should mean that Allen looks for more short and intermediate passes, which would benefit Kincaid’s chances of hitting this over, which already are a look good given the Steelers have given up an average of 50 yards per game to TEs.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Josh Allen
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
The pass rush of the Steelers has taken a major hit with the injury to TJ Watt, but I still believe that they’ll be able to put pressure on Allen, with could cause his team real problems. This season we’ve seen a bit of a regression with Allen. His numbers are down across the board, with 29 passing touchdowns compared to 35 last year, while he has increased his number of interceptions.
Allen’s a gunslinger and always will be, but he’s been picked off 18 times in 17 games this year and his play is too risky at times. Given the importance of this game there’s a real chance that he tries to take the team on his back which can go one of two ways. At plus money and giving up an average of more than one pick per game, I’ll take the over on picks.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
Josh Allen
Anytime TD (+115)
While I’m backing Allen to throw an interception because of his willingness to play hero ball and take the team on his back, it’s also one of the reasons that I’m taking the +115 on him to score a touchdown.
Allen has found the endzone 15 times this season, and last week’s win over the Dolphins was the first time he hadn’t run in a touchdown since Week 11. In fact in his last six games he’s rushed for eight touchdowns. The season is on the line and we know the weather is going to be horrific. Have faith that Allen will once against try to put the team on his back.
