Buccaneers vs Bills Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Here's everything you need to know about the latest Buccaneers vs. Bills odds with an expert picks and prediction for tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup.
The Buccaneers vs. Bills spread moved this week from Buffalo -8.5 to -9.5, while the total started Thursday at 43.5 but is down to 43 as kickoff approaches.
The Bills are coming off a stunning loss to the rival Patriots while the Buccaneers have dropped two straight. Trends are favorable for Josh Allen, who's 18-1 straight-up as a home favorite of seven or more points.
Let's preview the game and get right into my Buccaneers vs. Bills pick.
Our Expert's Buccaneers vs Bills Pick
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Bills vs. Buccaneers
Matchup Analysis
When the Bucs Have the Ball
Baker Mayfield (knee) and Chris Godwin (neck) are both questionable for TNF, so their statuses need to be monitored closely. LG Matt Feiler (knee) has been ruled out though I don’t think there’s too much of a drop-off from him to Aaron Stinnie.
Like the Bucs, the Bills defense is due for regression in key areas — notably, they've allowed the 15th-most yards per drive but have the seventh-fewest points allowed per drive. Again like Tampa, it’s thanks in large part to generating the second-most turnovers and only allowing 40% of red-zone drives to result in a touchdown, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Key injuries at all levels of the defense — DT DaQuan Jones (pec; injured reserve), LB Matt Milano (leg; injured reserve), CB Tre'Davious White (torn Achilles; out for season) — will also fuel the Bills' regression.
Buffalo has been without all three since Week 6. It's allowed the third-highest success rate against the pass and 15th highest against the run — and that was to the Giants and Patriots, teams not exactly known for their offensive prowess.
Bet Buccaneers vs. Bills at FanDuel
When the Bills Have the Ball
The Buccaneers defense ranks 12th in DVOA, but there are underlying factors that suggest the Bills could put up more points than the market expects.
Despite blitzing at the fourth-highest rate, Tampa Bay has the ninth-lowest pressure rate in the league. Blitzing Josh Allen but not getting pressure while doing so has backfired for opposing defenses this year, as he ranks third in EPA/play, seventh in ANY/A and sixth in QB Rating (out of 35 signal-callers) in those situations.
The Bucs defense is due for regression in key areas. They have allowed the seventh-most yards per drive but just the 10th-fewest points per drive. A lot of that is due to forcing the third-most turnovers while also only allowing 22% of red-zone drives to result in a touchdown. That rate is unsustainable; I expect them to regress closer to the league average red-zone TD% of 54%. Scoring in Bucs games should increase going forward.
On the injury front for Tampa, Vita Vea is questionable. His absence would be a big blow to both the Tampa Bay run and pass defense.
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Both defenses are due for regression, as I highlighted above. That has a lot to do with why this game also has the second-highest luck total rating of the week at +6.8. It’s a metric that indicates we should expect scoring to be a bit higher for these teams going forward.
This game could also feature a higher rate of kickoff returns. Both Jake Camarda and Tyler Bass have allowed a top-nine kickoff return rate this season. Kickoff returns can inject a bit of variance — like a long return, or a turnover that puts the other team in instant scoring position — that helps the over.
Mayfield and Godwin are both questionable, but considering they returned to log a full practice on Wednesday, they seem likely to suit up. Vita Vea missed another practice — his third straight DNP — and seems to be in danger of sitting out.
I bet the over at 42.5 on Wednesday night, expecting it to climb after a favorite injury report on Wednesday for Mayfield and Godwin. I'd say the over at 43.5 is more of a lean for me, although this matchup is more conducive to that than the under.
As of 6:35 p.m. ET, though, you can still grab 42.5 on the total at BetRivers and DraftKings.
