Bills vs Buccaneers Odds | Thursday Night Football
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +375 |
NFL Week 8 kick offs with Bills vs Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. That means it’s time for Buccaneers vs. Bills best bets.
The Bills vs Buccaneers spread has been on the move, with Buffalo ticking up to 10-point favorites across a number of books — though -9.5 can be found at DraftKings and FanDuel. The over/under is in the range of 42.5-43.5 — BetRivers and DraftKings are the two books with a total of 42.5.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game with this TNF betting preview, locking in two player props on James Cook and Dalton Kincaid, plus a bet on the total. Here are Thursday Night Football Best Bets, Expert Picks for Bills vs Buccaneers.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets, Expert Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs. Bills
By Ricky Henne
Dalton Kincaid has had a solid start to his NFL career. It’s too bad not enough people have noticed.
There’s a good chance that might change Thursday night, though, as the rookie no longer has to compete for targets with fellow tight end Dawson Knox, who's out indefinitely after undergoing wrist surgery. While that’s a blow to an already struggling Bills offense, it’s a major boon for Kincaid’s prospects.
Josh Allen has averaged eight passes per game to his tight ends this year, splitting his targets evenly between Kincaid (27) and Knox (28). However, Kincaid was by far the more productive of the two. He ranks second on the team in catches heading into Week 8 behind only Stefon Diggs. He’s also a human vacuum, hauling in 25 of 27 passes. His 93% catch rate is far and away tops among all NFL tight ends with at least 10 targets.
We already got a glimpse of what Kincaid is capable of with an increased role. With Knox clearly not 100% last week, Allen relied on his rookie. Kincaid answered the bell resoundingly, catching all eight targets for 75 yards.
The math here is pretty simple if all trends continue: An expected uptick in targets plus a high catch rate plus Allen’s eight targets per game to tight ends equals approximately seven receptions.
Be warned, though, that there’s a significant price to pay for backing Kincaid. I tend to avoid juice of this magnitude, but I love the bet too much to pass it up.
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
The Bills are third in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush attempt, creating 4.7 yards on average. James Cook is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which is the sixth-highest in the league for backs with 60 or more carries. Cook seems to be gaining confidence, and the Bills staff seems to be willing to lean on him more as the season progresses. Cook handled a season-high 72% of the backfield work last week, and without Damien Harris in the lineup, it should be more of Cook this week for a game in which the Bills are favored by more than a touchdown.
The Bucs defense has been average against the run. In the trenches, they're 21st in the league in adjusted line yards allowed per rush attempt. Buffalo is third in the NFL in run block win rate on offense, while the Bucs are 24th in run stop win rate on the defensive line. The Bills should be able to control the line of scrimmage against the Bucs' front seven.
Cook led the NFL in explosive run rate in 2022, but he has yet to break off some of the big gainers we saw him produce a season ago. I'm expecting a few more of the gains of 8-14 yards that we've seen the past couple of weeks to start turning into chunk gains of 15-25 yards.
This number is too low for a back starting to gain momentum in a positive game script. I'd bet this total up to 52.5.
Pick: James Cook Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
By Sean Koerner
Both defenses are due for regression. That has a lot to do with why this game has the second-highest luck total rating of the week at +6.8. It’s a metric that indicates we should expect scoring to be a bit higher for these teams going forward.
This game could also feature a higher rate of kickoff returns. Both Jake Camarda and Tyler Bass have allowed a top-nine kickoff return rate this season. Kickoff returns can inject a bit of variance — like a long return, or a turnover that puts the other team in an instant scoring position — that helps the over.
Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin are both questionable, but considering they returned to log a full practice on Wednesday, they seem likely to suit up. Vita Vea missed another practice — his third straight DNP designation — and seems to be in danger of sitting out.
The injury report from Wednesday favors the over, so I think it makes sense to lock in the number now — at the key number of 43 — as it could continue to climb.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
