All signs point to the Buccaneers signing Tom Brady.
Following a flurry of reports late Tuesday, ESPN's Adam Schefter confirmed that "barring anything unforeseen," Tampa Bay will be Brady's next stop. And while no further details have been reported as of writing, sportsbooks have already adjusted their Bucs futures.
Let's run through each market and how their odds have shifted.
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Buccaneers Super Bowl Odds
Just as the Patriots' odds to win the Super Bowl fell after Brady announced he wouldn't be returning to New England, the Buccaneers' odds rose once news broke of his intentions to sign with Tampa Bay.
In fact, the news cut the Buccaneers' Super Bowl futures in half:
- Bucs' Super Bowl Odds Before Brady News: +5000
- Bucs' Super Bowl Odds After Brady News: +2500
That's a shift in implied probability from 1.96% to 3.85%, giving Tampa Bay the 10th-best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in their hometown next February.
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Buccaneers Win Total
The Brady news lifted all Bucs futures, including their win total, adding 1.5 wins.
- Bucs' Win Total Before Brady News: 7.5 (via PointsBet)
- Bucs' Win Totals After Brady News: 9
Tampa is now one of a dozen teams with a win total of 9 or higher.
[Brady-to-the-Bucs Promo! Bet the Bucs to win the NFC South at +250 (boosted from +160) and other Brady promos]
Buccaneers Conference & Division Futures
With stiffer competition in the NFC, the Bucs are still tied for only the fifth-best odds to win the conference, but they were also halved by the news.
- Bucs' Odds to Win the NFC Before Brady News: +2200
- Bucs' Odds to Win the NFC After Brady News: +1100
As for the NFC South — where Brady will be pitted against quarterbacks more talented than what he dealt with in the AFC East, between having Drew Brees in New Orleans and Matt Ryan in Atlanta — the Bucs now have the second-best odds to take the division crown. (The Saints are favored at -125.)
- Bucs' Odds to Win the NFC South Before Brady News: +500
- Bucs' Odds to Win the NFC South After Brady News: +225
That's a spike in implied probability from 16.7% to 30.8%.
