The Finland vs. Sweden match will be this Saturday at 1 p.m. ET at Bell Centre in Montreal. It will be broadcast on ABC and streamed on ESPN+.
The weekend is for rivals. To start the day, we have a Scandinavian battle between Sweden and Finland at 1 p.m. ET.
Both were defeated by the USA and Canada, and whoever loses today’s matinee is essentially eliminated from contention to play in the championship game.
Check out my pick and prediction for Finland vs. Sweden in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
| Finland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 5.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Sweden Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 5.5 -105o / -115u | -205 |
- Finland vs. Sweden puck line: Finland +1.5, Sweden -1.5
- Finland vs. Sweden over/under: 5.5
- Finland vs. Sweden moneyline: Finland ML +170, Sweden ML -205
Finland Preview
If Thursday was a sign of things to come for the Finns, then this may be over way before it started. I had a feeling Finland would struggle on the defensive end, and it certainly did. But what surprised me was its inability to generate legitimate scoring chances.
USA stifled Finland, with the only goal coming from a weird angle from Henri Jokiharju who has a total of one goal this season for the Buffalo Sabres.
With the three-headed monster down the middle, I would at least expect Finland to put up some kind of fight. Throwing only 21 shots at Connor Hellebuyck isn’t going to get the job done.
Captain Aleksander Barkov and Artturi Lehkonen were the only ones who performed at a semi-decent level, each with at least a .5% expected goals rate.
There’s no real No.1 defenseman on this team. Jokiharju was probably Finland’s top defenseman against USA, and he’s never been a true No.1 in his career.
Even though he let up six goals, I can’t blame Juuse Saros. But it looks like coach Antti Pennanen could, by announcing backup Kevin Lankinen as the starter for today. Saros held strong in the first 40 minutes, but the minute the third period hit, everything that was getting thrown his way he completely missed.
Lankinen has been decent this season and has helped the Canucks stay alive in the playoff hunt with a .905 SV% and a 1.6 GSAx.
Sweden Preview
Sweden showed its resiliency in the third period of Wednesday night’s game against Canada. The Canadians are filled with copious amounts of superstars, and the fact that the Swedes were able to turn this battle into an overtime thriller, says a lot about Sweden’s game.
Adrian Kempe was by far the most effective player on Sweden. He ripped a shot past Jordan Binnington’s blocker from the point in a mostly stoppable shot, but everything was working in Kempe’s favor.
Aside from Kempe and Mika Zibanejad, everyone else on Sweden was virtually invisible on offense. I was looking for a lot more from William Nylander and Filip Forsberg, but most notably Elias Pettersson made zero difference in the game.
On the defensive side of the puck, the pairings of Victor Hedman and Jonas Brodin, along with Gustav Forsling and Rasmus Dahlin excelled.
The least of Sweden’s problems is goaltending. Despite letting up four goals, Filip Gustavsson is still a rock. He’s been performing for the Minnesota Wild at a high level, with a .915 SV% and a sixth-best 14.6 GSAx.
Finland vs. Sweden Prediction and Pick
I think Finland is in total disarray. Over the years, Finland has done a wonderful job at becoming a hockey hotbed, but the lack of top defensemen has hampered its potential to win the tournament.
Originally, I thought Saros was the rock of this team. The joke’s on me, I guess!
Sweden showed us who it was against Canada. Standing toe-to-toe with a behemoth and went to overtime. If the Swedes can do that, I don’t see why they can’t beat Finland, especially in regulation.
Bet on the three crowns, and fade the Finns hard.
Picks: Sweden 60 Minute Line (-120)
